ACUS11 KWNS 052032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052031=20
MTZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...North-Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052031Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts/hail possible with the
strongest cells, watch issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite trends show a few clusters of
storms that have emerged this afternoon. These storms have developed
within an environment characterized by weak instability (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg) that increases with eastern extent, and relatively
weak shear that increases to near 40 kts of effective bulk shear
with western extent. In the near term, this activity is anticipated
to persist and drift eastward into portions of east-central Montana.
Some intensification may occur with time, but convective evolution
remains somewhat uncertain amid the aforementioned weak cape/shear
environment. Nevertheless, strong to severe winds/hail is possible
with the strongest cells. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_t82Z5tvC-y7TPDU3Ie9i562Ir-Z47rYJRDns_W5gryjxYg45GmUC4jzeXgvQQD4WJ2rfpO3H= iTKesdEuNnNk-_JnSg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46860744 47220897 47551050 47631167 48271175 48761006
48980796 48780655 48110652 47310667 46860744=20


=3D =3D =3D
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