ACUS03 KWNS 020746
SWODY3
SPC AC 020745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly
across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains.

...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest...
A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper
Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls
and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the
south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day
precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the
strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across
Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma
near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies
aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and
organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening.

Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day
precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon
and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into
Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a
surface low.

..Guyer.. 07/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030742

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper
Ohio Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through
the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend
westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will
approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a
cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with
the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern
Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes
surface low into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity...
Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of
destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe
storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday
afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass
(dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount
of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind
gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe
hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional
supercell structures.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will
be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more
nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm
development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in
a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident,
marginal severe probabilities could be needed.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts
of the Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of
the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving
through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into
the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in
southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will
have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the
southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As
northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies,
models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE
vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as
well as its exact position.

...Plains...
Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models
suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north
as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within
the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in
the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e
boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce
the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the
remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into
the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some
severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with
initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat
(given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the
primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as
additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of
greatest risk increases.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends
have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may
remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain
for highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050740
SWODY3
SPC AC 050739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central
CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave
perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado
into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in
agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High
Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts
of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point
and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at
least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying
early morning convection.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of
diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the
afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is
how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS
reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM
developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning
convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong
northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can
be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS,
15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas.

...South Texas...
Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the
lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With
dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear
strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk
is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning.

..Wendt.. 07/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060728
SWODY3
SPC AC 060727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND THE ADJACENT SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of southeast Texas
into western Louisiana on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will progress into the Midwest/Great Lakes
regions on Monday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of
this trough, but heights will be near neutral or slightly rising
with time and surface features will be quite disorganized. Stronger
storms should remain very isolated. An upper-level ridge along the
West Coast will slowly shift eastward. TC Beryl, currently forecast
by NHC to be transitioning to a tropical depression Monday into
Tuesday, will move through parts of eastern Texas. Strong low-level
winds and rich moisture advection are expected within East Texas
into parts of western Louisiana.

...Parts of East Texas and western Louisiana...
mid to upper 70s F dewpoints will advect onshore as TC Beryl moves
into the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Strong low-level winds should
extend into parts of western Louisiana with time. Enlarged low-level
hodographs will favor a few rotating storms near the TC circulation
and perhaps along pseudo warm front/theta-e boundary to its east. A
few tornadoes will be possible, particularly in parts of southeast
Texas into the Sabine River vicinity.

..Wendt.. 07/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070729
SWODY3
SPC AC 070728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging
gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level
anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday.
Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected
across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain
west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to
severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of
Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South
into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of
strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given
neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too
low for introducing severe probabilities at this time.

...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley...
The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening
and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level
trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level
moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly
low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to
support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As
such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible
with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is
possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many
discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance
members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and
associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080715
SWODY3
SPC AC 080714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants
of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New
York on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level
ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface
cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the
mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern
Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that
rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of
the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and
modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote
40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs.
Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a
risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions
remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be,
potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk
has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be
needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear
amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast.

..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated
for an outlook area on day 3.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of
troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the
period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over
the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone
strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical
cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron
area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low
dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also
weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western
New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should
decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear
may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm
potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening
of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much
uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area
this far out in time.

A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across
portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture,
instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this
region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep
low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable
layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm
front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to
introduce an unconditional risk area at this time.

..Edwards.. 07/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100722
SWODY3
SPC AC 100721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight
with severe probabilities this outlook.

...Synopsis...
A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the
Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone
continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3
(Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level
trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath
an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface
dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the
Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall
low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the
region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not
overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this
outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any
storms that can form in this environment could at least be
pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a
southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper
MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more
organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe
probabilities may need to be introduced.

..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110732
SWODY3
SPC AC 110731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticylone, centered over the central Rockies, will
promote upper ridging from the Interior West to the MS Valley on
Saturday. The first in a series of pronounced mid-level impulses is
poised to pivot around the anticyclone and rapidly traverse the
northern Plains and Upper MS Valley through the period. Rich
low-level moisture, aided by widespread WAA beneath an EML, will
precede the arrival of the mid-level impulse, resulting in strong to
extreme buoyancy becoming established over the northern Plains and
Upper MS Valley. The capping inversion associated with the EML makes
it difficult to pinpoint precisely where and when the greatest
severe threat will be. Nonetheless, at least a few clusters of
strong to severe storms should evolve across the north-central CONUS
on Saturday.

...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Surface lee troughing over the Plains will continue to foster
low-level WAA, ushering in mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints
beneath an eastward-advecting plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates from the EML. This thermodynamic regime will support 3000-5000
J/kg of MUCAPE from the Dakotas eastward to the MS River. However,
accompanying this strong to locally extreme instability is an
appreciable amount of MLCINH, which is typical for EML plumes
pivoting around a synoptic scale anticyclone. The aforementioned
approaching mid-level impulse cresting the upper ridge is expected
to reach the MT/ND border by around 00Z and reach the MS River by
12Z. The point where the mid-level impulse overspreads the rich
low-level moisture, along with the east-northeastern terminus of the
low-level WAA regime, appear to be the most likely regions for
convective initiation.

Peak afternoon heating, along with low-level convergence at the WAA
terminus, may support the initiation of multicellular clusters over
parts of eastern IA into IL sometime during the mid-afternoon to
early evening time frame. Given modest vertical wind shear,
cold-pool mergers could support upscale growth into one or more MCSs
that will approach Lake Michigan, accompanied by at least isolated
severe wind or hail. Around sunset, additional storms may develop
across northern and eastern MN into western WI, perhaps driven by
isentropic lift. Since these storms will traverse the periphery of
greater instability amid modest vertical wind shear, it is unclear
how severe these storms will become, though at least isolated severe
hail and/or wind is plausible.

Finally, thunderstorms may initiate as far west as the MT/ND border
or even adjacent parts of Canada by early evening. This severe
threat is the most conditional of all scenarios. Should capping be
overcome, the storms will initiate west of an elongated axis of
strong to extreme instability, amid at least 30 kts of effective
bulk shear. The storms will be initially displaced west of the
richer low-level moisture, hence they would be high-based in nature, accompanied by primarily a severe gust threat. Though less likely,
if these storms can congeal into an organized MCS, the MCS could
become longer-lived and pose a threat for a more focused corridor of
severe gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120735
SWODY3
SPC AC 120734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday
morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending
across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific
Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the
Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a
series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the
belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to
influence the sensible weather across the Southeast.

Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning,
largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across
the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow
boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the
Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough
throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong
buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be
strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential
for the development of a forward-propagating convective line.
Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening
storms.

A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the
southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late
Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system
is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy
and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of
large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop.
Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these
storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most
likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota.

..Mosier.. 07/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest
into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of modestly cyclonic flow will likely be in place across the
northern CONUS early Monday morning, with this belt situated between
upper ridging across the southern CONUS and upper troughing across north-central Canada. A shortwave trough is expected to progress
through this cyclonic flow, moving from southern Manitoba/ND
eastward across far northwest Ontario/northern MN before lifting
into more of northwest Ontario. Another convectively augmented
shortwave trough may move from SD and NE through the Mid MS Valley,
briefly phasing with the northern shortwave trough.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning over western MN,
along and ahead of a modest cold front. These storms should be north
of the warm front, which is expected to extend from a surface low
near the SD/MN/IA border intersection vicinity east-southeastward to
far northern IL. Two scenarios appear plausible with these storms:
1) continued progression southeastward throughout the day ahead of
the cold front with a transition to a more surface-based character
possible amid interaction with the warm front, or 2) dissipation
with new development or significant reintensification occurring near
the warm front during the afternoon. Both scenarios suggest the
development of a forward-propagating MCS is possible, with the most
likely corridor for this MCS from eastern IA and southern WI across
northern IL, potentially reaching southwest Lower MI and northern
IN. Damaging gusts would be the primary threat within this MCS.

Afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible farther east from
the Upper OH Valley into the Northeast as a modest shortwave trough
interacts with the warm and moist airmass over the region. Shear
will likely be weak, mitigating the organized storm potential and
likely keeping the severe threat isolated.

..Mosier.. 07/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140726
SWODY3
SPC AC 140725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains
across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday,
reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At
the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is
expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a
belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across
the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast.

Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be
over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning,
with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low
in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of
this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH
Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm
development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of
it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will
be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture.
However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the
potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the
length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level
flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into
western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong
to severe storms.

Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the
the central High Plains. This may help support the development of
strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain
into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate
vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and
the potential for organization into a more organized linear system.
Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area.

..Mosier.. 07/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150731
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High
Plains, on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper
Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward
throughout the day and ending the period extended from western
Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend
through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough,
stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the
period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be
over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching
from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the
southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across
the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and
southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and
buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are
likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be
displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception
is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an
environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging
gusts as the primary threat.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the
central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture
and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive
upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow
will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High
Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms
move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant
airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe
threat.

..Mosier.. 07/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon from northeast Colorado into far eastern Wyoming and
adjacent far western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern early Thursday will likely be characterized by an
expansive upper ridge extending from the Southwest into western
Canada and an upper trough extending from western Ontario int the
Mid MS Valley. The western ridging is expected to persist throughout
the period, while the eastern troughing deamplifies as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses eastward across Ontario, the Lower Great
Lakes and New England.

The surface pattern will likely feature a strong high over the Upper
Midwest Thursday morning, with this high expected to gradually shift
eastward throughout the day. A cold front is expected along the
southern and eastern periphery of this high, beginning the period
extended from NJ southwestward across the TN Valley and Mid-South
into north TX. Some modest southeasterly/southerly progress of this
front is possible throughout the day, but it is also expected to
become increasingly diffuse. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
possible along this boundary, but weak vertical shear should limit
the severe potential.

Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated along the western
periphery of this surface ridging, combining with daytime heating to
provide airmass destabilization. Low-level convergence along the lee
trough may result in convective initiation from northeast CO into
far eastern WY and adjacent far western SD and the NE Panhandle.
Belt of moderate mid-level flow extending across the region will
help support enough vertical shear for storm organization and the
potential for a few severe storms capable of damaging gusts.

..Mosier.. 07/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern and central High Plains on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the
Southwest into western Canada early Friday morning, with upper
troughing anticipated east of this ridging across the central and
eastern CONUS. This overall upper pattern is forecast to remain in
place across the CONUS throughout the period.

Surface pattern early Friday will be dominated by a strong high over
the OH Valley, with a weak stationary front along its southern
periphery stretching from SC into the TX Hill Country. Warm and
moist conditions are expected along this boundary, and thunderstorm
development is anticipated during the afternoon amid modest
low-level convergence. Storm severity should be mitigated by weak
shear and largely disorganized storm mode.

At least modest low-level moisture will likely be in place along and
east of the surface lee troughing anticipated across the High
Plains. This moisture will enable airmass destabilization in the
vicinity of the lee trough, despite warm low/mid-level temperatures.
Low-level convergence is expected along the lee trough, with some
additional ascent potentially provided by a low-amplitude shortwave
trough currently expected to move through the northwesterly flow
aloft over the northern High Plains. Combination of these factors
may result in thunderstorm development within the moderately buoyant
and sheared airmass, suggesting some updraft organization is
possible. An outflow-dominant storm character is likely, with
damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. Some isolated large hail
is possible within any more cellular development.

..Mosier.. 07/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180729
SWODY3
SPC AC 180729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by western CONUS
ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing throughout the period
with only a slight westward shift in these features anticipated. A low-amplitude, convectively augmented shortwave trough will likely
be moving across the central Plains early Saturday morning, embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft between the western ridge and
eastern trough. This shortwave trough is expected to continue
southeastward through OK and into TX. Farther west, a pair of
shortwave troughs is expected to move through the northwest
periphery of the upper ridge. The southernmost shortwave will likely
move along the central CA coast throughout the period while the
northernmost shortwave approaches the northern CA/Pacific Northwest
coast early Sunday.

At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain over the OH
Valley, with a weak stationary front along the southern periphery of
this high across the Southeast. Lee troughing is also anticipated
through the period as well, with moderate low-level moisture east of
this troughing across the majority of the Plains. Outflow from
showers and thunderstorms associated with the central Plains
shortwave trough may exist as well, but low predictability limits
confidence in its presence and location.

Thunderstorms appear probable along the stationary front from the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as beneath the upper
ridging across much of the western CONUS and in the vicinity of the central/southern Plains shortwave trough. In each of these areas,
limited vertical shear is expected to limit overall storm strength,
tempering the severe potential. The only exception is across the
Mid-Atlantic, where enhanced mid-level flow between the eastern
CONUS troughing and subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic may
support stronger shear and better storm organization. Damaging gusts
are possible within any of the stronger storms over this area.

..Mosier.. 07/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist over the western states on Sunday.
Further east, broad upper troughing will envelop the central/eastern
portions of the U.S. Weak mid/upper flow also is expected, limiting
vertical shear. At the surface, high pressure will generally extent
east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. A seasonally moist
airmass will extend from the southern Plains through the
Mid-South/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected, but organized severe potential appears low
given aforementioned weak deep-layer flow/vertical shear, and a lack
of any stronger large-scale ascent.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200656
SWODY3
SPC AC 200655

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The overall pattern will not change much on Monday. An upper ridge
in the West and trough over the central/eastern U.S. will persist
amid weak deep-layer flow. A seasonally moist airmass will remain in
place east of the Rockies, supporting widespread thunderstorm
activity. Much of this activity will likely remain disorganized
given weak vertical shear and a little upper support.

Some forecast guidance suggests a weak cold front will develop
southward across the Canadian Prairies into ND and the Upper
Midwest. However, the timing of this feature is uncertain, and may
be ill-timed with the diurnal cycle/better thermodynamic conditions.
Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak regardless, and confidence
is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. Elsewhere,
sporadic strong gusts may accompany thunderstorms across the south-central/southeast states where high PW values will be in
place, though this activity should remain mostly disorganized,
pulse-type convection.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210657
SWODY3
SPC AC 210656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Some modest deepening of the upper trough over the Great Lakes is
expected on Tuesday. This may allow for some enhancement of
southwesterly mid/upper flow from the central Appalachians into the
Northeast. Meanwhile, forecast guidance indicates several shortwave
vorticity maxima migrating through broader southwesterly flow from
the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. At the
surface, a weak low is forecast to migrate across the Chesapeake Bay
or southern New England vicinity. The accompanying surface trough
may extend generally along the I-95 corridor from southern NY into
eastern VA, and could become a focus for thunderstorm development
during the afternoon and evening. Some forecast soundings suggest
30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes and at least weak instability
could support sporadic damaging gusts in a very moist environment.
However, forecast guidance varies on the placement of surface
features, as well as degree of instability across the region
(influenced by cloud cover and any ongoing morning convection), as
well as convective coverage. Low-end severe probabilities may be
needed in subsequent outlooks, but uncertainty is too high to
include a categorical severe risk at this time.

...Upper Midwest vicinity...

A surface cold front will sag southward across southern MN/WI on
Tuesday. Modest moisture and instability will be place ahead of the
front across portions of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys. This should support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening, though
vertical shear is forecast to remain very weak. This should limit
organized severe potential, though isolated gusty winds may
accompany any stronger cells.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220650
SWODY3
SPC AC 220649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

The upper trough over the upper Great Lakes vicinity will slowly
begin to migrate east toward the lower Great Lakes and the OH Valley
on Wednesday into early Thursday. This will result in modestly
increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially the second half of the
forecast period. At the surface, a cold front will sag
south/southeast across the Mid-MS and OH Valleys. Meanwhile, a
surface trough is expected to extend south/southwest across
eastern/central VA/NC. Weak vertical shear and poor convergence
along the Midwest cold front will preclude organized severe
thunderstorm chances. Further east, some severe potential could
develop across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity where a very moist airmass
will persist. However, forecast guidance depicts varying amounts of
cloud cover and possibly early convection across the region.
Furthermore, poor lapse rates and marginal vertical shear (around 30
kt effective shear magnitudes) may further limit severe potential
across parts of NC/VA into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230703
SWODY3
SPC AC 230702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley vicinity
will shift east over the Northeast/Atlantic coast on Thursday. At
the same time, an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest
will track east near the international border and northern Rockies.
This will push the upper ridge oriented from the central Rockies to
northern Plains east toward the Upper Midwest.

A cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio Valley and
the Northeast. Ongoing showers and widespread cloudiness will mute destabilization ahead of the front across the Northeast. While
somewhat stronger destabilization is possible across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley, vertical shear will be weak, limiting potential
for organized severe storms.

Further across parts of central/eastern MT, 50s F dewpoints and
steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg. Strong heating and increasing ascent with the approach of the
upper trough will allow for scattered thunderstorm development over
higher terrain during the afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest,
but deep mixing and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
suggest gusty outflow winds will be possible. A cold front will
sweep across the region during the evening/overnight, but increasing
inhibition with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240638
SWODY3
SPC AC 240637

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east
toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough
will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of
the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is
expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the
afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the
front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A
band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the
eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level
flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale
ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian
Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over
the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the
warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday.

..Leitman.. 07/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250709
SWODY3
SPC AC 250708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Northern Plains...

An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on
Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending
southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough
will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the
northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave
impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY
into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
shift southeast across the northern Plains during the
evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly
low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the
cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours.
Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse
emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening.
Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also
form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE.
At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given
favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes
greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface
cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering
airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still
lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period.
However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks as these finer scale details become better resolved in the
coming days.

..Leitman.. 07/25/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260713
SWODY3
SPC AC 260712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday,
lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will
result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across
the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front.
Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours
along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to
northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the
day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over
the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely
organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately
unstable environment.

The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level
shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday
evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in
timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result
in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which
should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most
likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this
time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern
Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher
probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks
as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes
more clear.

..Bentley.. 07/26/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270720
SWODY3
SPC AC 270719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the
Midwest on Monday.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the
High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough
across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast
upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these
features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS.
Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the
northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across
the Midwest.

...Midwest...
Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest
by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very
unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the
Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment
will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will
provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a
favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a
broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong
low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear
whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk
area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can
occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can
develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi
River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial
destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe
weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest
Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this
scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level
shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon.
However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday
morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and
southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to
Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not
be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1
period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most
favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until
mesoscale details become more clear.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad
region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered
across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and
eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday
and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will
be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf
of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region
of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which
will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as
a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday.

...Northern Plains...
As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee
trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded
shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday
afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow
around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow
will provide ample shear for storm organization including the
potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is
possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains
after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day
given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther
east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through
the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable
airmass during the evening.


...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt
and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place
(surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate
(35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain
uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given
height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this
time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk.

..Bentley.. 07/28/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290734
SWODY3
SPC AC 290733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to
the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New
England.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across
the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost
of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians
and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially
convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the
northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The
strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the
central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak
surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very
moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east.

...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE...
Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into
the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very
steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level
shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a
strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm
development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern
South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough
advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots
which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms
which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow
upscale into an MCS relatively quickly.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong
instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to
the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height
rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism
and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very
unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would
support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level
shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in
storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore,
a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address
this conditional threat.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300720
SWODY3
SPC AC 300719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough will be located near
the Upper Midwest Thursday morning and traverse to the southern
Great Lakes by early Friday morning. This trough will
sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface
low will likely accompany this trough, but the exact location of
this surface feature remains unclear due to subtle differences in
the forecast 500mb pattern.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
A MCS will likely be ongoing in the Midwest/Upper Midwest vicinity
on Thursday morning. The evolution/maintenance of this MCS remains
unclear and will depend on the exact location of surface
features/moisture and the evolution of the mid-level trough.
Nonetheless, confidence is high that a very moist low-level airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) will be present across the Midwest/southern
Great Lakes on Thursday. This will result in a reservoir of strong
instability. In addition, while the exact evolution of the upper
pattern remains unclear, the more broad scenario suggests a somewhat sharp/amplifying mid-level trough approaching this unstable airmass.
As this occurs, a substantial overlap in moderate/strong
instability, moderate shear, and ample forcing is anticipated from
central Illinois to southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Therefore,
while details still remain uncertain, evidence in some severe
weather threat during the convective period is high enough to
support a Slight Risk.

...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible within weak lee troughing east
of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will only be around 6
C/km which is the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. However, the moist airmass will result in moderate
instability amid effective shear around 25 to 30 knots. This may be
sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
from the Carolinas to the Delmarva.

..Bentley.. 07/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on
Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...
A upper low in the Illinois/Indiana vicinity Friday morning will
move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night. A
surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during
the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee
Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to
strong instability is expected across much of the region as
temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse
cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all
support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening.
Shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly
unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the
threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of
severe wind gusts.

...Southern Arizona...
Some monsoon moisture may move into southern Arizona on Friday which
may lead to some weak to moderate instability as temperatures warm
over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the
southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in some storm
organization and may result in some isolated severe weather threat.
At this time, confidence in storm coverage/intensity remains too low
for a marginal risk.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010731
SWODY3
SPC AC 010730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few
isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a
slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the
Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this
occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will
sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday.

Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS
will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the
Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains
on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms.

...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...
A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F
dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day
Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak
height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should
lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon
across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong
instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated
strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe
weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central
Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of
better storm organization.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures
warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread
this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the
deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer
to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability
with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability
overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into
central Minnesota.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020724
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes
will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent
mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon
Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream,
seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the
upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the
south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across
northern Quebec.

In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered
across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an
axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great
Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of
this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and
east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However,
it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to
the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may
advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday.

Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate
that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a
pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of
Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into
southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for
ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within
this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive
to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it
currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in
nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding
introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation
emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the
Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the
risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly
and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030719
SWODY3
SPC AC 030718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN MAINE...MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather
across parts of the southern Atlantic coast, and corridors across
New England into southern portions of the Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
Within the amplified flow across the northern mid-latitudes, the
center of an enlarging high may shift slowly eastward into the
Canadian Northwest Territories, while the downstream low progresses
similarly across northern Quebec during this period. To the
southwest through south of this low, a vigorous short wave impulse
is forecast to rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario into the St.
Lawrence Valley, before turning eastward toward the Canadian
Maritimes. As this occurs, it appears that a surface frontal zone
will advance south/southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley and upper
Great Lakes region, accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow and
shear across southern portions of the Great Lakes into New England
Monday through Monday night.

The western flank of this front may advance more rapidly southward
into and through the central Great Plains, though it appears this
will occur beneath a prominent mid-level ridge building along an
axis from the southern Great Basin through lower Mississippi Valley.
Between this ridge and a downstream ridge over the subtropical
western Atlantic, it appears that a tropical storm may slowly
progress inland across northeastern Florida and adjacent
southeastern Georgia by late Monday night.

...South Atlantic Coast vicinity...
Forcing for ascent, low-level shear, and boundary-layer buoyancy may
remain sufficient to support a continuing risk for convection
capable of producing tornadoes in the northeast/right front quadrant
of the slow moving tropical cyclone. This may be in the process of overspreading northeastern Florida early Monday, perhaps into parts
of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, before mostly
shifting offshore by Monday night.

...New England through the southern Great Lakes...
Enough variability exists within the model output to preclude the
introduction of more than marginal risk severe probabilities at the
present time. However, it appears that the strengthening shear may
coincide with sufficient destabilization along the frontal zone to
support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development Monday
into Monday evening. This may include the evolution of a few small
clusters, which may become capable of producing swaths of damaging
wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040725
SWODY3
SPC AC 040724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS...LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE...MARYLAND AND WEST VIRGINIA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may
impact coastal Georgia and South Carolina, a corridor across the
Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, and parts of the northern
Rockies into adjacent Great Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

...Synopsis...
After reaching peak amplitude, models suggest that northwestern
Canadian mid-level ridging may continue elongating eastward, while
evolving troughing to its south digs toward the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. This may begin to suppress the
expansive western into central U.S. ridging, but flow may remain
broadly anticyclonic across much of the northern U.S. Rockies and
Great Plains through this period.

Downstream, it appears that the persistent/slow moving northern
Quebec mid-level low will redevelop eastward offshore, to the south
of Greenland, by early Wednesday, as a significant short wave
impulse accelerates east of the Canadian Maritimes and contributes
to cyclogenesis. However, trailing troughing is forecast to linger
across the eastern Canadian provinces and much of the Northeast, as
another embedded perturbation digs to the southeast of Hudson/James
Bays.

In lower-levels, an initial cold front is forecast to advance slowly
southward into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic, and more
rapidly through the middle Mississippi Valley and central into
southern Great Plains. However, within weak steering flow between
the ridging in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, the
remnant circulation of what is forecast to at least briefly become
Hurricane Debby may only very slowly migrate into and across coastal southeastern Georgia Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Coastal Georgia/South Carolina...
Forcing for ascent, boundary-layer buoyancy and low-level shear
conducive to convection with potential to produce tornadoes seem
likely to largely continue slowly spreading east of Georgia coastal
areas early Tuesday. However, it is possible that this regime could
continue to impact areas perhaps as far north as South Carolina
coastal areas into the day.

...Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast to begin to weaken Tuesday, and
there may be a tendency for the front to advance south of the
stronger lingering flow. However, it is possible that low-level
moisture along the front may still contribute to sufficient
instability, with daytime heating, to support scattered organizing
thunderstorm activity with potential to produce locally damaging
wind gusts Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Northern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection,
downstream of the approaching mid-level troughing, might contribute
to one or two consolidating clusters of convection spreading off the
higher terrain late Tuesday afternoon. As this propagates into a
more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, in the
presence of strong shear (beneath 40-70+ kt flow in the 500-300 mb
layer), there may be potential for this activity to organize and
produce strong to severe outflow winds, despite relatively modest
potential instability.

..Kerr.. 08/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050723
SWODY3
SPC AC 050722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas
and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and
perhaps pose some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained
across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this
period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian
Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate
westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one
short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley
through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave
trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay
vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across
much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England.

In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one
prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern
Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the
western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern
Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary
to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still
forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward
toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night.

...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia...
Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of
Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for
tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where
the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible
buoyancy.

...Northern High Plains...
In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong
westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around
500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this
supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday
afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for
severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060728
SWODY3
SPC AC 060727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of
eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be
accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland
across the south Atlantic coast Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and
east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much
of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing
will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a
couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest
of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low
may begin to evolve by Thursday night.

At the same time, although some model output still various
considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant
tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset
of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland
progression across the Carolinas.

In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or
drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period,
as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern
Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Mid Atlantic...
Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which
is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates
inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level
shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection
capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of
the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of
boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains
uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may
develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in
advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this
could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when
daytime heating will maximize potential instability.

..Kerr.. 08/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070726
SWODY3
SPC AC 070725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...

...SUMMARY...
There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance
of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid
Atlantic region on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge
will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level
height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low
evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper
Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary
surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the
lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a
trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio
Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's
remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z
Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to
continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the
front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the
evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and
appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least
Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the
accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the
process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime
heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before
spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of
the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment,
the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for
tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss
of daytime heating Friday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080730
SWODY3
SPC AC 080729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...New England...
Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis
east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence
Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low
into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one
initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western
Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating
low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the
remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by
Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt
of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and
convective development associated with this regime will shift into
the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential
for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization.

...Elsewhere...
Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and
subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the
lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic
Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead
of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast
may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might
be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
Saturday afternoon.

More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm
development appears probable above the western flank of the front,
across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided
by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through
Saturday night.

A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging
may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally
maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could
pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely
to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities
at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could
still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090731
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and
uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some
threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in
the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC
and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning
of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through
its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal-
origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the
southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from
the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the
Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging
will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending
northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies.

As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther
southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal-
wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary
over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving
northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some
modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent
convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains).
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near
and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States.


...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley...
A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the
south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or
evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/
differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as
the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development
suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially
uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with
height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable
CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface
front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may
develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are
inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/
orientation and upstream variability in available moisture.

..Edwards.. 08/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100727
SWODY3
SPC AC 100726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally
low across the contiguous United States.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence
along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the
higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually
veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though
mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft
organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with
initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized
severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe
probabilities.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday
morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley.
This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and
slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally
strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be
draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK,
and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain
minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave
trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could
produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and
modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too
conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110729
SWODY3
SPC AC 110728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts
of the northern/central High Plains.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Upper ridging should remain prevalent over much of the Plains on
Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass
response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee
trough extending southward along much of the length of the
northern/central High Plains. Some northward advance of low-level
moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee
trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this
moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by
late Tuesday afternoon.

Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in
association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and
modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper
levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some
thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe
winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the
length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday
afternoon through evening. Have therefore included a fairly broad
Marginal Risk across parts of the northern/central High Plains to
account for this potential.

...Carolinas...
As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some
enhancement to west-northwesterly winds is forecast across parts of
the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. While
deep-layer shear appears conditionally supportive of organized
convection, poor lapse rates and limited instability may tend to
hinder more robust thunderstorms from developing across SC and
vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Still, occasional strong/gusty winds
appear possible, but the overall severe threat currently appears too
limited to include any probabilities.

..Gleason.. 08/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120730
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley...
Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm
advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken
through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass.
In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place
along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to
south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater
low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface
dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO
Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong
instability across this area.

Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as
multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the
period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly
strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated
hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central
Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing
warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one
or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of
central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in
place across this area, which would potentially support more robust
updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance
for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario
occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore
opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the
northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley.

..Gleason.. 08/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130731
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central
Plains...
An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form
into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A
corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur
across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface,
a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper
Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level
convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward
from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist
and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by
Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley.
Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and
weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating
combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable
airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support
strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS
forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height
through mid levels.

This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should
support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the
potential for supercells and associated large hail threat.
Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes.
However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to
some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement.
Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance
shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late
evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward
across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains
fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length
of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central
Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more
isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could
still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that
can develop.

..Gleason.. 08/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130816
SWODY3
SPC AC 130815

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central
Plains...
An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form
into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A
corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur
across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface,
a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper
Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level
convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward
from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist
and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by
Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley.
Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and
weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating
combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable
airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support
strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS
forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height
through mid levels.

This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should
support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the
potential for supercells and associated large hail threat.
Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes.
However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to
some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement.
Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance
shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late
evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward
across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains
fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length
of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central
Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more
isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could
still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that
can develop.

..Gleason.. 08/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140729
SWODY3
SPC AC 140728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Mid-South.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South...
As upper ridging remains suppressed across parts of the Southwest
and southern Plains, an upper trough should continue to progress
slowly eastward over portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest and OH
Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be
present over parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and
related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period.
A weak/occluded surface low beneath the upper cyclone should
likewise develop slowly eastward over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario. An ill-defined front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low.

Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Friday morning over parts of
the OH Valley. This activity is generally expected to remain
sub-severe and further weaken through the morning/early afternoon as
it moves eastward into a less unstable airmass. Some recovery is
expected to the west of the early-day convection and ahead of the
weak front, with a rather moist low-level airmass forecast to be in
place from portions of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and
Mid-South vicinity. While deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually
weaken with southward extent, a broad area of at least moderate
instability should develop in tandem with daytime heating along and east/southeast of the front. Any thunderstorms that do develop could
become strong to severe with mainly a hail/wind threat given the
forecast environment, but considerable uncertainty remains
concerning details of convective initiation and development. Only
weak low-level convergence along the surface front also lends
uncertainty in where greater severe thunderstorm coverage may occur.
Therefore, for now have included a broad Marginal Risk for Friday.
But, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if
confidence increases in an MCS/cluster occurring.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID
SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and
southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across
parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt
of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central
Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization
with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak
surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great
Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low.

...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio
Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be
ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is
currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of
early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating
and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to
locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the
Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will
support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a
conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop
over a broad region near/ahead of the front.

Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the
influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near
the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve
during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind
and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed,
once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored
corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area.

...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK...
The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from
southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon.
At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity
of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday
night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy
and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of
isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms
from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

..Dean.. 08/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150727
SWODY3
SPC AC 150726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and
Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast...

A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the
Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low
initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into
southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending
southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward
progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although
ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should
still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts
of these regions.

Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should
foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even
though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus
over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South.
But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft
organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector.
Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday
afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind
threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening.
Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of
damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151925
SWODY3
SPC AC 151924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday
afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep
South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest.

...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South...
Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with
a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South.

A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the
Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface
cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold
front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail
southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area.
Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday
appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is
plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant
MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in
parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient
of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that
would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for
sporadic damaging winds.

Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly
unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster
potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad
warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the
Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern
extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from
1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible
across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too
low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater
damaging wind potential.

...Pacific Northwest...
A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper
trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across
northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this
meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening
thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the
Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to
low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized
high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the
main hazard.

..Grams.. 08/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160713
SWODY3
SPC AC 160713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A
marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the
central and northern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated
cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal
Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will
contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the
boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the
moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide
some support for convective development, the area ahead of the
trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf
Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for
severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and
after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in
the late afternoon.

Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability
is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the
trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger
deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi
Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some
model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early
in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts
of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have
potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon.

...Central and Northern High Plains.
An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on
Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in
place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will
be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast
soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into
western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be
possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will
negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat
should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161928
SWODY3
SPC AC 161927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across
parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early
evening.

...Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States...
A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great
Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs
towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the
belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow
shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded
surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western
NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep
South to Lower MS Valley. The combination of moderate to strong
buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be
greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for
thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A
corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few
supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into
central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of
producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat
during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also
be possible, especially with western extent.

...Central/northern High Plains...
A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains
between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the
Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture
will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a
modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection,
driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z
Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity
may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe
hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated
surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during
the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into
the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible.

..Grams.. 08/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170729
SWODY3
SPC AC 170728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with a marginal severe threat, will be
possible on Monday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, North Carolina, and
from the central to the northern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the southern
and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances
southeastward toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints
across most of the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina are forecast to
be in the 60s F, with 70+ surface dewpoints confined to the
immediate Atlantic coast. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of
instability will likely develop near and ahead of the front, and in
the post-frontal airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form within these areas as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Although low-level lapse rates will become steep in many areas by
afternoon, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak.
The instability could still be strong enough for a marginal severe
threat. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts could occur near and
around peak heating.

...Central to Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the Central High
Plains and northern Plains on Monday. An axis of instability will
likely develop during the day to the west of the ridge, from eastern
Colorado northward into eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor,
thunderstorms are expected to form in some areas due to
topographical forcing in the central and northern Rockies. More
isolated storms will be possible in the lower elevations of the
central and northern High Plains. Forecast soundings across the
central and northern High Plains have steep low to mid-level lapse
rates and sufficient deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat.
Relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads could enhance
downdrafts associated with high-based storms. Hail could also
accompany the stronger cells, especially further west near the
higher terrain.

...Ark-La-Tex...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
Ark-La-Tex on Monday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
forecast from northeast Texas into Louisiana, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, low-level lapse rates will become steep. This
combined with moderate deep-layer shear may support an isolated
severe threat. Although there is some uncertainty concerning
convective coverage, the forecast environment should be enough for a
few marginally severe storms.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171921
SWODY3
SPC AC 171920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE
SABINE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States,
and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening.

...Central High to northern Great Plains...
A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while
a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains
to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime
over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies,
with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern
Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid
to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a
broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich
boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains.
Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be
relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters
should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat.
Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak
buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic...
A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast
Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears
to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and
boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should
support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the
Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer
shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts.
This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon.

...Sabine Valley...
A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe
storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential
heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of
guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential
should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If
surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of
moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential
for a few strong downbursts and small hail.

..Grams.. 08/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180717
SWODY3
SPC AC 180716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is
forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge
further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface,
a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western
Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for
morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated
with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger
low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an
isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By
afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will
overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would
be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any
cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind
gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as
northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181926
SWODY3
SPC AC 181925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central
High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday.

...Northern/central High Plains...
In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This
feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder
threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level
ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area,
emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective
signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a
conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe.
Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains
apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms
along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after
coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the
level 1-MRGL risk.

Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern
Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse
embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on
Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should
strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding
increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the
evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains
buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop
with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This
warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk.

..Grams.. 08/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190727
SWODY3
SPC AC 190726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind
gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern
High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into
central Montana and southward into the central High Plains.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central
South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface
dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong
instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the
moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking
above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF
showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the
airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be
possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop
in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This
convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High
Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave
trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over
western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would
support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the
early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the
region.

Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis
during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and
large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains,
suggesting any threat should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191925
SWODY3
SPC AC 191924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to potentially scattered storms will be possible on
Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Severe winds and
large hail could occur. Marginally severe storms will be possible
westward into central Montana and southward into the central High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will continue across portions of the Western
U.S. A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to lift northeastward
through the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A surface low will deepen near
the Montana/North Dakota border with a lee trough extending into the
central High Plains.

...Montana into North Dakota...
Convection is likely to form within the higher terrain of southwest
Montana. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but buoyancy will be weak
to modest. Strong/severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
possible. Greater uncertainty exists in the exact scenario for the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. With the surface low
deepening, a few storms could initiate during the
mid/late-afternoon. These storms would have a greater chance at
maintaining a supercellular mode. Severe wind gusts and large hail
would be the main hazards with this scenario. However, mid-level
heights will be mostly neutral through the day before modest falls
occur by early evening and low-level forcing will be limited as
well. A second possibility is for activity in Montana to move into
the border region during early/mid-evening. Severe winds would be
the primary hazard with what would likely be outflow-dominant
storms. Given the late timing of these storms, it is not certain how
much severe coverage there would be. The 15% severe probability area
will be maintained this cycle with guidance hopefully providing more
clarity in the coming days.

...Black Hills into central High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible within the lee
trough. Shear will be weaker with southern extent. A few severe
gusts and marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest
storms during the afternoon.

...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Some convection may be ongoing in eastern South Dakota into southern
Minnesota early in the period. Some outflow can be expected with
this activity. With the MCV, flow aloft will be enhanced into
eastern Nebraska. While a conditional threat for a strong/severe
storm exists, low/mid-level forcing will be weak and storm
initiation is far from certain.

..Wendt.. 08/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200719
SWODY3
SPC AC 200718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
and northern Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, an axis
of instability is forecast to be in place from western Kansas
northward into east-central North Dakota. Near this axis, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to the
development of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition to the instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot
range along much of this corridor, which should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could have
potential for hail and severe gusts. There is some uncertainty
concerning Thursday's forecast. First, the models vary considerably
on the distribution and magnitude of instability. Second, the models
differ significantly on convective coverage. The current thinking is
that storm coverage will remain relatively isolated due to
subsidence in the wake of the ridge, and that convection may tend to
develop further to the east away from the instability axis. For this
reason, a marginal risk should be sufficient for this forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201928
SWODY3
SPC AC 201927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and
southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper
Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England,
while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the
southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will
remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of
60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough.

Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they
may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds
around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region,
supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to
the east.

Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest
instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as
far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over
the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day
wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of
day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is
maximized.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210726
SWODY3
SPC AC 210725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern Plains,
and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain over eastern parts of the central
and northern Plains on Friday. A north-to-south axis of moisture and instability is forecast across Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and
eastern Montana, where isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings near
the area of strongest instability late Friday afternoon in northern
Kansas and southwest Nebraska suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear will be from 30 to 40 knots.
This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should
support an isolated severe threat. However, large-scale ascent is
forecast to be absent across much of the region. For this reason,
updrafts may struggle to intensify due to subsidence in the wake of
the ridge, keeping any severe threat marginal.

...Eastern Utah/Western Colorado/Far Southwest Wyoming...
An upper-level low is forecast to approach the coast of Oregon on
Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the
Intermountain West. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the western U.S., which will likely aid the development of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon from eastern Utah eastward into the
central Rockies. The models suggest that weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in
place, which would be sufficient for marginal severe threat. Hail
and isolated severe gusts will be possible mainly during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211926
SWODY3
SPC AC 211925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in
parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with
an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot
northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe
moving into northern CA into Saturday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during
the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast
winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough
also extending from central MT into the northern and central High
Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the
western Dakotas in response to the lead wave.

...UT/Western CO and southwest WY...
Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears
during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and
heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear
increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of
marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible.

...Eastern MT into northeast CO...
Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western
WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind
aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY
and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally
unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with
this activity.

..Jewell.. 08/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220714
SWODY3
SPC AC 220713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts
of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise
on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south
corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of
the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate
instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by
afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western
edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the
western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with
steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat
for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any
severe threat is expected to be marginal.

...Four Corners...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain
West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four
Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where
destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region
Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners
vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also
forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally
severe gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221929
SWODY3
SPC AC 221928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts
of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners
region.

...Four Corners Region...
The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on
Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel
moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air
mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the
stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here
during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of
strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt
may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times.

...Central/Northern High Plains...
An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge
will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western
trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near
the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western
Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap
stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in
this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally
severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain
weak.

Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and
southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be
weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse
rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230746
SWODY3
SPC AC 230745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and
in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward
with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward
across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the
northern Plains/central High Plains area.

At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system,
shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and
southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus
convective development through the period.

...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies...
Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in
strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern
Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit
widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to
initiate during the afternoon.

As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt
-- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting
shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such,
attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass
is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies.
However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively
driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt
of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging
wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which
evolve during the afternoon and evening.

..Goss.. 08/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231932
SWODY3
SPC AC 231931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains
area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential
southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday.

...Northern Plains...
An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the
Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains
through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across
MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the
Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to
support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective
deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the
cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a
moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe
storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late
afternoon.

Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of
an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may
yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail.
Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase
in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion.

...Central Rockies/Plains...
Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the
front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level
winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal
instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected.
Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a
greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply
mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over
the higher terrain of NM/CO.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240742
SWODY3
SPC AC 240741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TO THE WISCONSIN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from
the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity, and
southward to the southern High Plains during the afternoon and
evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Intermountain West at the start of the
period is forecast to eject northeastward across the High Plains
into the north-central U.S. by the second half of the period. This
will result in weakening of the persistent upper ridge over the
central CONUS. Meanwhile, a weak upper low is forecast to shift south-southeastward across the Northeast/New England through the
period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying across the north-central
U.S. will sharpen and shift southeastward through the second half of
the period, as the upper system shifts into/across the northern
Plains. This front will likely focus severe storm development
during the afternoon and evening hours.

...South Dakota vicinity to the Upper Great Lakes...
While timing of the ejection of the upper system into/across the
north-central U.S. remains a bit uncertain due to differences in the
output from various models, a general consensus that afternoon storm
initiation will occur across this region exists, as a very unstable
airmass evolves diurnally. With flow forecast to veer/increase with
height to southwesterly at 40 to 50 kt, shear will support
organized/supercell storms. Coverage through the daylight hours may
remain isolated across much of the region however, due to low-level
capping. Still, any storms which do develop would be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

Storm coverage may increase overnight as the trough advances and a southwesterly low-level jet develops, with convection -- and ongoing
severe risk, spreading eastward across the Upper Midwest into the
Upper Mississippi Valley into early Tuesday morning

...The High Plains...
Modest afternoon destabilization forecast across the High Plains
from southeastern Montana southward to northeastern New Mexico and
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles should support isolated storm
development. This development will be aided by increasing
large-scale ascent associated with the ejection of the upper trough
across the High Plains region during the afternoon. While flow
aloft will be stronger with northward extent, supporting a few
strong/severe storms with damaging wind potential, the very deep
afternoon mixed layer farther south (mixed to/above 700 mb) will
likely compensate somewhat for the lack of shear. As such, isolated
severe gust potential may extend southward into the southern High
Plains.

...The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region...
As a weak upper low shifts southeastward across the Northeast,
modest afternoon destabilization is expected across portions of the
region. While uncertainty regarding ample CAPE development exists,
a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the southern and
western flank of the low will provide sufficient shear for
southeastward-moving storms and potentially linear
segments/clusters. Presuming at least minimally sufficient
afternoon destabilization, stronger storms would pose a risk for
damaging gusts locally, into the early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241927
SWODY3
SPC AC 241926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from
the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during
the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also
expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on
Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb)
will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s).
A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest
into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through
the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the
day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may
develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and
isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of
the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in
subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the
post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern
High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region
as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist
airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting
isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep
low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak
instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small
hail.

...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity...

Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this
update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the
degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members
showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM
solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a
large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until
confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater
thunderstorm coverage.

..Leitman.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250728
SWODY3
SPC AC 250727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the
southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist
Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving
eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile,
a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the
more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe
potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is
forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern
Ontario through Wednesday morning.

At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi
Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system,
moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period.

...Great Lakes region...
Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging
winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of
the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance.
Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this
convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution
of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as
the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across
the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly
destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with
time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies
shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system,
potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated.
While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent,
Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk.

As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight
hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at
this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake
Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania.

..Goss.. 08/25/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251908
SWODY3
SPC AC 251907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday.

...Great Lakes Vicinity...

Only modest outlook changes have been made with the Day 3 update as
overall pattern remains similar to prior thinking.

An upper trough over the northern Plains will migrate east across
the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. This will suppress the upper
ridge over the Midwest while bringing a belt of enhanced westerly
flow across the region. Convection will likely be ongoing across
portions of WI/MI, though exact location of morning thunderstorms is
a bit uncertain and will be driven by evolution of a possible MCS in
the Day 2/Mon period. Nevertheless, a very moist boundary-layer is
forecast, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F ahead
of southeastward-advancing cold front. Strong to extreme instability
is forecast, though some midlevel inhibition may persist across
portions of the region. Nevertheless, this overall pattern continues
to point toward severe thunderstorm potential, mainly in the form of severe/damaging gusts and large hail across the Great Lakes vicinity
Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

...NE/IA vicinity...

The western extent of the surface front will sag southward across
the area. Strong differential heating along the boundary is
forecast. A very moist boundary-layer will support strong
instability, but warm midlevels leading to capping may preclude
thunderstorm development. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) has been
extended southwest along the forecast frontal zone for a conditional
risk of severe storms during the afternoon into early evening as
strong gusts and hail could occur if storms develop.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260744
SWODY3
SPC AC 260743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday,
as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge
moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada --
partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and
moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is
forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent
northern Intermountain Region through the period.

At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to
extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while
retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the
northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts
into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon
and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should
extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains.

...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic...
Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region
at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic
features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will
likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current
indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the
afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface
baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable
kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to
southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward
across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds
would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern
portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent
into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will
likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the
overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the
period.

...Northern Plains...
As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and
northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of
the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass
into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will
support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by
late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front
shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While
some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely
be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North
Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight.

..Goss.. 08/26/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270719
SWODY3
SPC AC 270718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of
Virginia and the Carolinas, and across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest into the central Plains on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough moves out of the Northeast and into the northern
Atlantic, a surface cold front is forecast to backdoor southward
across southern Virginia and the Carolinas with time. Meanwhile, an
upstream mid/upper-level trough will move across the Canadian
Prairie and Plains states through the period. Accompanying this
trough, a surface cold front will shift eastward/southeastward with
time, and should arc from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward and then west-southwestward to the southeastern
Colorado area by Friday morning.

...Southern Virginia to northern South Carolina...
As a trailing cold front shifts southward across the Mid-Atlantic
region and eventually into the Carolinas, daytime heating will
support moderate destabilization across parts of southern Virginia
and into the Carolinas. While a gradual increase in large-scale
upper ridging will be underway in the wake of the departing upper
trough, isolated storm development will be possible during the
afternoon, near the sagging front and over the higher terrain.
Though flow aloft will remain weak, weak veering with height may
combine with ample mixed-layer CAPE to support a few stronger
storms, and accompanying, marginal severe risk locally. Risk should
diminish by early evening, as storms diurnally decrease.

...Minnesota to northern Kansas...
Moderate afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of the
advancing cold front across the Upper Midwest, aided by ample
daytime heating. While the strongest flow aloft should remain to
the cool side of the boundary, ample shear atop the frontal zone
should support isolated stronger storms. As such, attendant risks
for large hail and damaging gusts will accompany the most vigorous
updrafts, into the evening hours.

A few stronger storms may develop southwestward along the front into
the central Plains, where weaker instability/shear are expected.
Still, marginal hail and a locally strong gust or two cannot be
ruled out into the early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/27/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271917
SWODY3
SPC AC 271916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong
storms also will be possible over portions of southern West
Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina.

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...

An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central
Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the
International border closer to the compacted closed low over the
Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced
southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the
surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper
Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s
F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating
and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a
corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the
Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into
the evening hours.

Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with
southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be
possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering
low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal
shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however.
Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this
activity.

With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings
show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong
instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep
low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest
strong wind gust potential.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a
departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes.
However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate
to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south
across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally
strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly
diminish with loss of daytime heating.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES
HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and
Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the
north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday,
though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across
the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and
southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front
should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across
the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the
Midwest...
Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing
cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms.
While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front,
moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the
Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve,
including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms
will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of
mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal
convective decrease commences.

..Goss.. 08/28/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281927
SWODY3
SPC AC 281925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and
Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of
the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday,
with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject
northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across
the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward
across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should
extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio
Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the
Midwest...
Destabilization is expected ahead of the cold front, with
moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE by afternoon. With minimal CINH,
thunderstorm development is likely from lower MI southwest to IL.
Although the stronger deep-layer shear will lag towards the cool
side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will
favor loosely-organized storms that should tend to cluster over
time. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be
possible.

..Bunting.. 08/28/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290729
SWODY3
SPC AC 290728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the
northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the
broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly
southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes
region.

At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from
the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual
southeastward progress across the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned
short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of
Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the
period. Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the
central Plains.

...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast...
As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great
Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of
the frontal zone. Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas
from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak.
Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across
areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective
intensity. As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to
remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce
only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania
vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at
this time. Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be
possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/29/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291931
SWODY3
SPC AC 291930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the
northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place
from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday.
Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through
parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger
upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A
cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the
Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through
parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association
with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough.

...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead
of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley
region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to
the north with stronger instability to the south, but the
environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of
organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few
stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a
threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail.

...Upper Great Lakes vicinity...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of
destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move
southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However,
favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at
least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support
some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential
remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of
prefrontal destabilization.

..Dean.. 08/29/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300733
SWODY3
SPC AC 300733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift
eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while
upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of
the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should
near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast.

At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to
the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a
second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the
Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually
overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the
front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic
Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas.

...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly
eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians
Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization
ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated
convection lingering across the area at the start of the period.

Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along
the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft --
particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving
storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon
and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient
moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more
substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield
greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most
prudent at this time.

..Goss.. 08/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301924
SWODY3
SPC AC 301923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada
into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the
larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move
across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New
England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic,
OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level
cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move
northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast.

...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid
Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization
potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness
remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association
with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient
for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind
threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient
destabilization can occur.

Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible
into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with
scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening.
Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but
will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters
capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and
evening.

...Arizona...
Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development
across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There
may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower
elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though
uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe
potential within this regime.

..Dean.. 08/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020731
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing
gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may
also occur across the northern Plains region.

...Synopsis...
The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local
severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the
northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature
advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and
central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale
trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will
result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and
the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the
vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern
fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of
high pressure over the eastern and into the central states.
Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern
U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains
and southward into the central Plains through the period. By
Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota
southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity.

...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado...
Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the
upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions
of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in
development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate
mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts,
and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement
potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe
outflow winds are expected.

Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from
should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into
the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized
updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening
should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal
hail, before nocturnally weakening.

..Goss.. 09/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021921
SWODY3
SPC AC 021920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing
gusty/locally damaging winds will exist from parts of
Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may
also occur across the northern Plains region.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weak upper trough providing cooling aloft and modest flow will
move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, while a cold front
moves across the Dakotas, trailing southwestward into the central
High Plains by 00Z. High pressure will remain over much of the East,
providing stable conditions there, and enhancing southerly winds
over the Plains ahead of the front. In general, a plume of 50s to
lower 60s F dewpoints will spread north toward the front late in the
day.

Scattered storms will first form over the higher terrain across
eastern MT, WY, and into central CO, with steep lapse rates and
modest deep-layer shear favoring marginal hail. Storms will also
form along the cold front, from eastern CO into the Dakotas. Backed
low-level winds and veering winds with height may support a few
supercells, though multicellular clusters will also be likely as
winds aloft are on the marginal side for better organized storm
structures. Still, favorable time of day and steep low-level lapse
rates will likely favor gusty to locally severe gusts as activity
spreads across the northern and central Plains through the evening.

..Jewell.. 09/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030724
SWODY3
SPC AC 030723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the
central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great
Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated
with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the
south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected
to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest
into the central/southern Plains.

...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and
the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level
moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least
modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be possible near the front, and also potentially
within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying
expected to lag the initial wind shift.

Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be
relatively weak across the region where storm development is
currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal
heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger
midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can
impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could
evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too
low to include probabilities.

..Dean.. 09/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031923
SWODY3
SPC AC 031922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and
Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated
frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great
Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains.
Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with
storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico
and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes.

...Western Great Lakes...
Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient
to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front
in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening.
However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat
limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely.

...Northeast New Mexico...
A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward
northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be
sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can
develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm
organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too
weak for a Marginal risk.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday,
though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into
parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to
slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a
reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and
Midwest.

...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity...
With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the
Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal
moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into
the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest
buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of
convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening.
Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the
digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized
storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding
destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer
flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may
eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio
Valley.

..Dean.. 09/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041932
SWODY3
SPC AC 041931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday,
though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into
parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to
slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a
reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and
Midwest.

...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday
afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and
a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest
instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough
should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon.
A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support
some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric
flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread
damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears
possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050731
SWODY3
SPC AC 050729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast and
Mid Atlantic on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A deep trough is forecast to take on more of a neutral or negative
tilt on Saturday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves
slowly eastward across parts of ON/QC. A surface low initially near
the lower Great Lakes may gradually deepen as it moves
northeastward, while a trailing cold front will move through parts
of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the day and into the
evening. Farther south, a gradually deepening frontal wave is
forecast to move near the Carolina coast through the day, and then
move offshore by evening. To the west, an upper-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place across the Southwest, while an
upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across northern CA and the
Pacific Northwest.

...Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Some modest low-level moisture return is possible along/ahead of the
front across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though buoyancy will
likely remain meager due to weak midlevel lapse rates, and timing of
the front remains somewhat uncertain. If adequate destabilization
can occur along/ahead of the front, then increasing low/midlevel
flow and large-scale ascent would support potential for somewhat
organized convection during the day across parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic, which could pose some damaging-wind potential.
Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the
region, if confidence increases regarding frontal timing and
development of sufficient instability.

...Central/southern High Plains vicinity...
Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints generally in the low 50s
F) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization across parts of the central/southern High
Plains. Deep-layer shear will become at least marginally supportive
of organized storms within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Storm development and coverage (if any) across the High Plains remains
uncertain, with large-scale ascent likely to remain subtle at best.

Diurnal storm development will also be possible across the higher
terrain of the southern/central Rockies, though buoyancy and
deep-layer shear will tend to be somewhat weaker compared to areas
farther east.

...Coastal NC...
Depending on the track of the frontal wave that is forecast to
develop Friday night near the coastal Carolinas, rich low-level
moisture may spread slightly inland during the morning/afternoon,
before the low moves offshore. While some increase in low-level flow
is expected as the wave gradually deepens, buoyancy will likely
remain quite weak. Any severe potential with the system may be
rather limited, unless low-level mass response ends up being
stronger than currently forecast.

..Dean.. 09/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051923
SWODY3
SPC AC 051922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move
into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift
northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south
into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will
exist into the Plains and MS Valley.

Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper
low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected
instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities.

...Northeast...
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east
across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about
00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal
instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower
70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km
AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at
850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool
boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of
appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060727
SWODY3
SPC AC 060726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast,
western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, as a front remains located over the
central and eastern Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be
possible on Sunday near and to the south of the front. Thunderstorms
will also be possible within southwest mid-level flow to the west of
a ridge in the western U.S. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur in north-northwesterly mid-level flow over parts of the Great Lakes. No
severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 09/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061923
SWODY3
SPC AC 061922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast,
western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will move northward across Quebec with a large area
of cyclonic flow aloft encompassing much of the northeastern states.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over much of the Rockies, with
a weak shortwave trough affecting the Pacific Northwest.

High pressure will provide relatively cool and stable conditions to
much of the CONUS on Sunday. This high will be centered over the mid
MS/Lower OH Valleys, and will shunt any appreciable moisture and
instability southward over the Gulf of Mexico. However, a moist and
unstable air mass will remain over the FL Peninsula, well south of
the upper trough. A few daytime thunderstorms are likely there.

Elsewhere, moisture beneath the upper ridge will lead to scattered
daytime thunderstorms over much of the Four Corners states, with
weak wind fields aloft.

..Jewell.. 09/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070729
SWODY3
SPC AC 070728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the lower
Great Lakes, Southeast and from the Four Corners region
northeastward into the north-central states. No severe
thunderstorms are expected Monday or Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Northeast on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near
the through in the lower Great Lakes region. Additional storms are
expected to develop near the Gulf Coast along and near a front.
Other storms will likely develop from the Four Corners region
northeastward into the north-central states. No severe storms are
expected Monday and Monday night across the U.S.

..Broyles.. 09/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071916
SWODY3
SPC AC 071915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move gradually eastward
across the northeast CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave is
expected to move through the base of the trough across the lower
Great Lakes region into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. A midlevel
shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Rockies/High Plains, with a weaker shortwave potentially moving from
the central Plains into the upper Midwest. An area of low pressure
initially over the Bay of Campeche may evolve into a tropical
cyclone.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the lower Great Lakes, Intermountain West, and potentially into
parts of the High Plains, though low-level moisture is expected to
remain rather limited. Nocturnal elevated convection may be possible
from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest, though this
potential remains quite uncertain.

...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Ascent and cooling temperatures aloft in association with the
digging shortwave trough will support diurnal thunderstorm potential
from the lower Great Lakes into central/northern NY. Most guidance
suggests that buoyancy will remain quite limited, though gusty winds
and small hail could accompany any deeper convection. The 07/12Z NAM
is notably stronger with both the digging shortwave and
destabilization, suggesting a threat for more-organized convection.
Confidence in this more aggressive scenario is too low for
probabilities at this time.

...Deep South Texas...
See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information regarding
possible tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche.
Uncertainty remains high regarding the details, but guidance
generally suggests that the favored northeast quadrant of any
developing cyclone will remain offshore of south TX into Tuesday
morning, which would limit inland severe potential through the end
of the period.

..Dean.. 09/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080725
SWODY3
SPC AC 080723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday across the Gulf
Coast region and from the Four Corners northward into the
north-central U.S. No severe threat is expected across the U.S.
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, a shortwave trough moves across
the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward across the central and northern Plains.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near parts of
the front, and further west in the higher terrain of the central and
northern Rockies. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the
Gulf Coast region along the northern edge of a moist airmass. No
severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

..Broyles.. 09/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081855
SWODY3
SPC AC 081854

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday across the Gulf
Coast region and from the Four Corners northward into the
north-central U.S. No severe threat is expected across the U.S.
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as
upper ridging prevails over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Surface
high pressure will promote cool and stable conditions from the
Midwest to the East Coast, limiting thunderstorm potential. However,
orographic lift over the higher terrain in the Interior West, as
well as surface lee troughing in the central and northern Plains,
will promote at least isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Steep lapse rates will overspread
the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley regions by afternoon,
promoting at least moderate instability, though the lack of
low-level moisture should limit severe potential.

The heating of rich low-level moisture along the Gulf Coast will
encourage scattered thunderstorm development. By Tuesday, a tropical
storm is likely to develop to the southeast of the TX coastline (per
latest NHC forecast). The probable track of this developing tropical
storm suggests that the more organized convection should remain
offshore through Tuesday, which should keep any severe threat to a
minimum.

..Squitieri.. 09/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090724
SWODY3
SPC AC 090723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION....

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across the central
Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A tropical storm is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
develop across the western Gulf of Mexico today, and move
north-northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Although uncertainty is substantial concerning landfall
and intensity, the system is forecast to become a hurricane and move
onshore into southwestern Louisiana early Wednesday evening. If this
were to happen, an isolated tornado threat would be expected across
much of the central Gulf Coast from Wednesday afternoon into the
overnight period. Forecast soundings near the location of expected
landfall have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 500 m2/s2
range, with strong low-level shear extending eastward across much of
the central Gulf Coast region. If the current scenario plays out as
expected, an isolated tornado threat would develop, from near the
landfall location eastward across southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle. The threat would
continue throughout the central Gulf Coast region through late in
the period, as the system moves inland into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

..Broyles.. 09/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091929
SWODY3
SPC AC 091928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity
on Wednesday, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine.

...Synopsis...
Tropical Cyclone Francine is currently forecast to make landfall
sometime later Wednesday afternoon or evening near the LA Gulf
Coast, potentially as a hurricane. Meanwhile, a relatively deep
mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northwest into
the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. In response to the
this trough, some deepening of surface low pressure is expected from
the eastern Great Basin into Montana.

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
See NHC forecasts and advisories for additional information
regarding Francine. Some tornado threat will spread inland as
Francine approaches the coast during the day before making landfall
by evening. Based on current forecasts/guidance, the most favorable
overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and inland intrusion of
tropical moisture (with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F) is
expected across parts of southern LA/MS, where a small Slight Risk
has been included. The northern extent of an appreciable tornado
threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially
remaining quite limited into parts of central MS Wednesday night,
but the Marginal Risk has been expanded based on the expected track
of Francine into early Thursday morning.

...Interior Northwest...
Large-scale ascent and cooling temperatures aloft attendant to the
approaching trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Wind
profiles will become favorable for organized convection, but
moisture will likely remain rather limited, and uncertainty remains
regarding whether buoyancy will become sufficient for a severe
threat. Locally gusty winds and small hail could accompany the
strongest storms.

...Central/northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of the
central/northern High Plains during the afternoon, to the south of a
stationary front that will extend eastward across parts of eastern
MT into the Dakotas. While this convection may remain rather
disorganized, inverted-v profiles could support localized strong
gusts.

Near and immediately north of the front, somewhat more favorable
moisture and instability may be in place during the
afternoon/evening, but capping will tend to limit surface-based
development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible, but
potential for any organized severe threat remains uncertain at this
time.

..Dean.. 09/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100727
SWODY3
SPC AC 100726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado threat may persist into Thursday across
parts of the Deep South. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will
be possible over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday
afternoon and evening.

...Deep South/TN Valley...
TC Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase on
Thursday as it tracks northward across parts of the Lower MS Valley
to Mid-South. Model consensus suggests the bulk of strong low-level
wind fields will become increasingly confined within the northeast
quadrant of the cyclone. This will yield decreasing low-level
hodograph curvature through the period, initially along the
central/northeast Gulf Coast and gradually expanding northward. This
will result in decreasing overlap of favorable SRH with rich
tropical moisture, characterized by 70s surface dew points. Tornado
potential may be less than on D2, but should still have a diurnal
morning to afternoon peak before diminishing during the latter half
of D3. Confidence is low with the northern extent of the
low-probability tornado threat, which will likely contain scant
surface-based instability coincident with moderate to large SRH. The
TN Valley vicinity appears to be the northern demarcation.

...Eastern MT to western Dakotas...
The northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough should shift
east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday
evening. Guidance has above-average consistency with the depiction
of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jet
impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to
early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear, becoming favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating.
Two convective regimes are apparent, one within the post-frontal
upslope flow regime in central to eastern MT and the other near the
lee surface trough/cyclone close to the MT/Dakotas border area.
Isolated large hail will be favored in the western regime, while
isolated severe gusts should be favored east. The primary limiting
factor to greater severe probs is progged weak buoyancy, with
pre-convective surface dew points around the upper 40s to low 50s.

..Grams.. 09/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101914
SWODY3
SPC AC 101913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado threat may persist into Thursday across
parts of the Deep South. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will
be possible over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward into
the northern Rockies/High Plains through Friday morning, with
moderate midlevel meridional flow aloft. Accompanying this trough
will be a cold front which will extend from eastern MT into eastern
WY.

To the east, TC Francine is forecast to move northward up the lower
MS valley, with strong southerly winds helping to bring moisture
north across much of the Southeast east of the center/low. High
pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic, adding to the pressure
gradient east of the cyclone.

...Eastern MT into the western Dakotas...
Daytime heating as well as cooling aloft with the upper trough will
result in steepening lapse rates, though low-level moisture will be
meager with 40s dewpoints primarily east of the cold front. A narrow
band of uncapped and unstable air will still develop during the late
afternoon, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40 kt deep-layer
effective shear. As such, scattered cells are likely to develop
along the front, and the elongated hodographs may favor a few single
cells despite linear forcing mechanism. Therefore isolated hail over
1.00" may occur, as well as brief bowing segments producing strong
gusts.

...Much of AL, eastern MS...FL Panhandle...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to exist from the northeastern
quadrant of TC Francine arcing southeastward across much of AL and
into the FL Panhandle Thursday morning. Low-level theta-e advection
will exist near a warm front as it lifts north across AL, though dry
air will exist from the Appalachians into parts of the OH/TN Valleys
initially.

The greatest risk of a couple tornadoes will likely be limited to
storms within the instability plume centered over AL, and including
the FL Panhandle and perhaps far eastern MS. Low-level shear will be
strong to start the day, but will be reduced as the system continues
north and low-level flow veers.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110727
SWODY3
SPC AC 110726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Friday.

...AL/GA/TN vicinity...
The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the
AR/TN border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level
winds relative to Thursday. Still, a belt of adequate low-level
southeasterlies may persist during the morning to afternoon over a
portion of the southern Appalachians towards the Lower OH Valley. A
mesoscale corridor of modest low-level SRH coincident with weak
surface-based instability may develop during the day. This corridor
will likely be narrow, with a drier air mass/veered low-level winds
to its west and cooler temps/lower mean mixing ratios to its
northeast. Confidence is not great enough yet to delineate a
low-probability tornado threat.

...Central Dakotas to the central High Plains...
As the primary shortwave impulse and attendant surface cyclone
advance north-northeast over SK to western MB, its trailing Pacific
cold front should move east towards the central Dakotas to central
High Plains by Friday afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be
limited ahead of the front to the west of decaying Francine, but may
be adequate for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the
front during the late afternoon and early evening. Mid-level winds
will be strongest over ND, but largely parallel to the front and
instability appears weakest here. Greater boundary-layer heating and
modestly enhanced moistening should occur in the central High
Plains, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises and modest
deep-layer shear will be limiting factors. While locally strong
gusts are possible, this threat appears insufficient for a
low-probability severe highlight.

..Grams.. 09/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111904
SWODY3
SPC AC 111903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the Southeast on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian
Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across
the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will
likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near
eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east
through the day Friday.

...Southeast...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and
southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which
will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately
unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the
tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support
isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves
through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this
activity.

..Bentley.. 09/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120705
SWODY3
SPC AC 120705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across
the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine
will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of
the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be
broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical
moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over
the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a
quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic
thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the
far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability
combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight.

..Grams.. 09/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121926
SWODY3
SPC AC 121925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Southeast...
The remnants of TD Francine will continue to weaken across the
Southeast on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass should be
present across northern Florida and into southern Georgia and
southeast Alabama. This will likely result in scattered to
widespread thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon.
However, the primary threat from these storms should be heavy rain
as very weak lapse rates and only marginal deep-layer shear will
likely result in mostly sub-severe convection.

...Central to Northern Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the dryline from
the central Plains to the northern Plains on Saturday. Initially,
low-level moisture will be limited, but better moisture will advect
ahead of the dryline by late afternoon to early evening. This may be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms to develop along the dryline as a
weak mid-level shortwave trough moves into the Plains. The
combination of isolated storm coverage and only marginal deep-layer
shear precludes the need for a Marginal Risk at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130709
SWODY3
SPC AC 130708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger
portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe
storms remains negligible.

A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout
mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of
post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper
jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper
low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening
large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of
low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only
scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be
largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains.
This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just
after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign
synoptic pattern.

..Grams.. 09/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131927
SWODY3
SPC AC 131926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Discussion...
A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday,
while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward
along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The
overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited
by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and
buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal
Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the
north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with
moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially
further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough.

..Guyer.. 09/13/2024

$$

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