AWUS01 KWNH 011329
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-011700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
928 AM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas...Parts of Adj. Northwest
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011330Z - 011700Z

SUMMARY...Stronger, efficient rainfall producing cells are on a
downward trend, but spots of 2-3" quick totals may occur over the
next few hours before fully dissipating. As such, a spot or two
of localized flash flooding are possible, especially if cells
track through urban centers.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a broad area of warm advective
showers and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas, sliding into SW IA, W MO. There
appeared to be two waves, a well elevated and boundary layer
elevated band of cells, but as lapse rates and distance from
deeper theta-E/moisture pool over the central Plains rapidly
reduces across IA/MO; so have the cells... with the first wave
already becoming very stratiform in nature.=20

However, the upwind wave still has solid 20-25kts of southwesterly
850-700mb ascent per TWX/EAX/MCI VWP orthogonal to remaining
instability gradient and deep moisture axis across the region. As
such, upstream convergence has been strong enough to maintain or
even develop a few cells in the last few hours across NE KS. The
southern most with significant rainfall rates (over 4"/hr in N
Lyon county) and latent heat release has formed a weak MCV and is
aiding flux convergence to the related cells to maintain 2-2.5"/hr rates...given deep layer pool of 2.25" TPW, which is near record
for the date/time. While rates are likely to decrease with
reducing WAA flow and distance from instability axis, spots of
2-3" will remain possible for the next few hours, especially with
favorable back-building, flanking line development in a weakening
inflow environment; but will be widely scattered to those
remaining deeper convective elements from Marshall, to Jackson to
Douglas county. If these cells intersect with urban centers,
especially between Topeka and Kansas City metro, a localized
incident or two of flash flooding will still be possible through
16-17z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87_an-nvqcCunG6tmKnB4B380yJ4-D54FIkjfP-Zd5MoymRaadlaD6gnUXE75_MVCd73= utf8znwWs58DPvBq08O9Vck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39979580 39889498 39459420 38889390 38469421=20
38349474 38559548 39009603 39279637 39859688=20
39959625=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011804
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011803Z - 020003Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity will be
developing soon over areas the Southwest U.S. with notable
concerns for more flash flooding expected over the normally dry
washes and the area burn scar locations. This is especially the
case for the burn scar complex involving the Sacramento Mountains
in central NM and the Lincoln National Forest.

DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture remains deeply entrenched over the
Southwest U.S. again today and visible satellite imagery shows an
elongated axis of MCV energy stretching from central AZ through
northwest NM which is leftover energy from last evening's
convective activity.

PWs over the region remain anomalously high with values that are
locally 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and especially
from southern AZ through northwest NM. Strong diurnal heating has
already resulted in SBCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg.
Convective initiation is in the early stages of occurring over the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim in AZ and the higher terrain of
central through western NM as differential heating boundaries and
localized upslope flow into the terrain focuses convective growth.

The Sacramento Mountains in central NM with a focus on the Lincoln
National Forest continue to be extremely sensitive to heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity given the burn scar complex involving
the Blue-2, South Fork and McBride burn areas. This region this
afternoon and evening is expected to see additional heavy rainfall
from monsoonal convection and thus will be susceptible again to
enhanced runoff impacts and flash flooding including debris flow
activity.

Elsewhere across much of central and eastern AZ through western
and northern NM. Monsoonal convection is expected to initiate and
gradually expand in coverage in a scattered to broken fashion.=20
The proximity of the MCV energy will also gradually help focus
expanding areas of convection. Given the level of moisture and
instability, rainfall rates throughout the Southwest are expected
to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour, with some isolated
storm totals by this evening of 2 to 4 inches. Some spotty heavier
totals will be possible where any cells become anchored near the
higher terrain.

The normally dry washes and area burn scars again will be
particularly vulnerable to flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4auIrS807WRHnHLYxBJyCIz5jvUD_im3_0doJ21xnvzi9rwwEbZtGeDLWytVy13pTplB= L1uuv0an41mgxTsXOUDUmIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36800678 36650548 35900474 34800435 33380457=20
32350526 31720645 31300851 31171047 31501213=20
32731281 34171266 35371310 36481212 36691075=20
36610945 36580824=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011810
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Coastal Georgia and South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011810Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...Very deep moisture and slow thunderstorms along the
coast to produce 2.5"/hr, spots of 3-5", and possible rapid
inundation flooding through the evening.

DISCUSSION...18z surface analysis depicts a slowly sagging cold
front across the NC/SC border connecting to a weak surface
wave/inverted trough across West-central GA just west of Macon.=20
South of the boundary, very high theta-E air with mid to upper 70s
Tds and temperatures starting to near the mid to upper 80s, spots
of 90+F. Total moisture through depth ranges from 2.1 to 2.5" and
SBCAPEs of 2500-3500 J/kg from CHS into S GA. Deep warm layer
between 14-15Kft and given parameters will allow for efficient
rainfall production/tropical showers capable of 2.5"+/hr.=20=20

Aloft, GOES-E WV shows the split in upper-level flow in the col
along the eastern edge of the large scale ridge across the central
Gulf states. This is weakening mid-level steering flow to allow
for very slow cell motions and propagation vectors to near zero at
or along the GA/SC coastline. Yet, effective bulk shear given
directional shear should support some minor organization to
convective cells allowing for increased duration for multiple
up/down convective cycles before forward propagation would occur.=20
As such, a weak low to mid-level circulation is spinning up in
across S central GA, leading to streamline convergence across SE
GA as well.

Frictional convergence and onshore flow/moisture flux may further
lock convection to coastal regions to support increased rainfall
duration. As such, spots of 3-5" are becoming more likely
particularly further north along the central SC coast (proximity
to the front) and northeast GA. This is supported by recent HRRR
solutions as well as 17z WoFS; with 50th percentile around 3.5"
and 90th percentile over 6". As such, there is increasing
confidence of 3-5" totals along the coast which may result in
spots of possible rapid inundation flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qDW_3ClI4EuEVDtavh7rZuR92MSgaClKBYYgAXIXTvwg_oInoshbapey-47Oo8DxTLu= 2DJ8iOes66lvPDy_d-ihldw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33607902 33407895 32937934 31878086 30918145=20
30668251 31058264 31818204 32678138 33078076=20
33268021 33507975 33587949=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012126
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
525 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Central ND...Central/Southwest SD...Far Northwest
NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012125Z - 020325Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of strong convection
with high rainfall rates going into the evening hours may pose a
few instances of flash flooding where any cell-mergers or
cell-training activity occurs.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery show rapidly developing
and expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions south-central ND down through central SD and into
northwest NE. The activity is organizing in response to a strong
shortwave trough and associated frontal zone ejecting east out
across the northern Plains while interacting with a very moist and
unstable airmass lifting north through the central and northern
Plains.

A north/south axis of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg are
focused along the frontal occlusion and especially the cold front
extending south-southwest of a wave of low pressure situated east
of Hettinger, ND. The instability is being aided by a southerly
low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts and this strong warm air advection
and moisture transport is also combining with as much as 40 to 50
kts of effective bulk shear for organized convective line segments
and some supercell activity.

Over the next few hours, convection should continue to grow
further in coverage and organization as height falls/forcing
associated with the shortwave trough ejects farther east out
across the northern Plains and interacts with the moist/unstable
low-level jet. The PWs are running quite high with magnitudes of
1.5 to 1.75 inches which are a solid 1.5 to 2 standard deviations
above normal. This will support some of the stronger convective
cells attaining rainfall rates that could reach 2 inches/hour
which is supported by the 18Z HREF guidance.

Some localized concerns for some cell-merger and cell-training
activity will exist, and the 18Z HREF does favor some potential
for isolated 3 to 4+ inch totals going through the late evening
hours. A few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out as a
result where these heavier totals materialize.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hK-cezdOwHDOCwWrcl8O4opa-phywmPwtFn8XK2vKLXs7DK2abp0bz1po21doPXgZtz= avgh3mzRD18S5Ilzg_mSjG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...CYS...FGF...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 48889986 48799842 47899805 46409829 45009902=20
43500034 42830154 42700295 43300330 45120194=20
46820146 47890136 48540074=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012206
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Southern GA...Portions of the
FL Panhandle/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012205Z - 020230Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall rates will continue to pose concerns for some areas
of flash flooding heading into the evening hours across areas of
far southeast AL, southern GA and into portions of the FL
Panhandle/Big Bend area.

DISCUSSION...Very moist and convergent low-level flow in vicinity
of a weak area of low pressure and associated surface trough
combined with a very unstable boundary layer and some modest
northeasterly shear overhead should continue to favor clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms heading into the evening hours
across areas of far southeast AL, southern GA and into adjacent
areas of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend region.

MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/kg are focused over the region
with a deep tropical airmass characterized by PWs of locally near
2.5 inches. There is also about 30 kts of effective bulk shear out
of the northeast. This will yield convective cells with very high
rainfall rates that could easily approach or exceed 2.5
inches/hour with some of the more organized cells.

The 18Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs favor some localized 3
to 5 inch rainfall totals with some of the more slow-moving cells,
and the mean steering flow should remain rather light this evening
to promote some of these heavier totals. A few instances of flash
flooding may occur as a result heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!93nUzpB8PC4cprhdFSc5VPt-_8Ddrfa80yfinIg2LQ802t-fmF42MRUJu6qU9mbNIEd0= JRPc0bwGRO05IgGRxf_Rwmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31708478 31548291 30838185 29588182 29148251=20
29498330 29808399 29708517 30148628 31168609=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020021
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020620-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Western/Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020020Z - 020620Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
through the evening hours over especially areas of eastern AZ
through western and central NM. Areas of heavy rainfall will
likely result in additional areas of flash flooding will notable
concerns for the area dry washes and burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
numerous clusters of cold-topped convection over eastern AZ
through western and central NM as the diurnal heating cycle in
conjunction with deep monsoonal moisture and orographics=20
continues to foster a favorable environment for redeveloping and
sustainable areas of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity.

MLCAPE values are still locally on the order of 1000 to 1500+
J/kg, with the greatest instability generally over western NM and
southeast AZ. Multiple outflow/mesoscale boundary collisions are
also occurring with the ongoing activity which is helping to
generate new areas of convection while gradually working to
stabilize the boundary layer.

PWs over the region remain anomalously high with values that are
locally 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and with the
lingering instability and influence of orographic forcing, the
rainfall rates at least going through the evening hours will still
be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
storms. Some spotty additional totals where storms locally remain terrain-focused may reach 2 to 4 inches.

Later in the evening as daytime instability is increasingly
exhausted, the convection should gradually weaken. However, for at
the next several hours, the additional areas of heavy rainfall are
likely to result in more areas of flash flooding with the area dry
washes and burn scars remaining vulnerable to enhanced impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t2S1eBWD3EIjyM7kuMjhaL7gp2E4a_ZhvidvBWzmLppf4HTQG40sIuCg3FrJw0RRAVt= DQjllhIpJhWT6ZaN_t0eNBM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36650571 36440516 36050460 35160415 33790446=20
32600525 31670653 31230787 31260944 32191097=20
33251138 34291084 35200907 35850825 36260739=20
36580648=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 020056
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020655-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Eastern NE...Western IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020055Z - 020655Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from training bands of showers and
thunderstorms is expected going into the overnight hours across
south-central to eastern NE and eventually western IA. At least
scattered instances of flash flooding are likely to occur.

DISCUSSION...Organizing bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are currently seen growing gradually upscale across areas of
central and southern NE as a strengthening southwest low-level jet
focuses a significant pool of moisture and instability out ahead
of a wave of low pressure developing along a front over northwest
KS.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
a warm front that is extending east from this area of low pressure
along the KS/NE border, and the low-level jet overnight
overrunning this boundary is forecast by the latest hires model
consensus to reach 50+ kts. Strong warm air advection/isentropic
ascent and frontogenetic forcing combined with the elevated
instability pool should favor strong convection with heavy
rainfall potential considering the anomalously high PW environment
that is also in place.

PWs across eastern NE are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and
the 00Z OAX sounding had a PW of 1.86 inches. These PWs are on the
order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and with the
elevated CAPE parameters and a strongly sheared environment
conducive for strong/organized updrafts, the rainfall rates may
reach as high as 2.0 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Eventually the convection overnight should become more linearly
aligned with the deeper layer steering flow from the southwest,
and this will encourage there being eventually areas of training
convection and potentially some backbuilding cells around the
southern and southwest flanks of the convection. This may result
in some rainfall totals going through 06Z of as much as 3 to 5
inches with isolated heavier amounts possible.

At least scattered instances of flash flooding are likely to
materialize in time, and this will include impacts to the more
urbanized locations as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!69EEZo8Uo4Uf7gRhGnVvDnQJtxnx6XWgO-Dk2NFTRSqSJRMJylDPXNWUCfsJczyGax4L= KpN_ahphqnMurw7GrH677BY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42309629 42159489 41439462 40609535 40029687=20
39979886 40519940 41239896 41889776=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020706
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-021200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...southwest IA...southeast NE...adjacent portions
of far northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020705Z - 021200Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will persist with elements of backbuilding/training supporting additional localized totals of
2-5". Numrous instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...A large, disjointed mesoscale convective system (MCS)
continues to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Midwest
and Central Plains late tonight. While the primary area of
thunderstorms (and resulting significant flash flooding) has
occurred along the I-80 corridor in southeast NE, a secondary area
of storms has also manifested farther northeast (over northeast
IA, southeast MN, and adjacent portions of WI). All of this
activity (with a large area of stratiform precipitation in
between) is being driven by a strong low-level jet (LLJ) ushering
in warm air advection/moisture transport and subsequent
destabilization (with 3-hr MU CAPE increases of 400-1000 J/kg)
across a broad area from the Southern/Central Plains to the Upper
Midwest. The strongest convection (being rooted closer to the
surface) continues to trail behind in southeast NE and southwest
IA, and recent backbuilding to the west (towards the most Theta E
rich air at the surface) has resulted in repeating of 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates (with MRMS estimating localized totals of 2-4" over
a 2-3 hour period in the vicinity of the Lincoln and Omaha metro
areas). This is in stark contrast to the aforementioned secondary
area of heavy rainfall farther northeast, which remains quite
progressive with hourly rates capped closer to 1.5" (and
importantly without training/backbuilding elements).

Going forward, hi-res guidance is actually in better spatial
agreement (per HREF ensemble agreement scale, EAS, neighborhood
probability fields) with the secondary area of heavy rainfall,
suggesting higher confidence in 1-2" accumulations in this area.
That said, when focusing on higher-end amounts (additional
accumulations of 3"+), the 40-km neighborhood exceedance
probabilities are much higher (20-40%) along and downstream of the
hard hit Lincoln/Omaha metro areas. The 00z HREF probability
matched mean QPF depicts 2-5" totals in this region (primarily in
southwest IA going foward), and this is driven by the ARW,
ARW2/NSSL, and HRRR members (with subsequent runs of the HRRR
remaining fairly consistent with 2-5" depictions through 12z,
though notably too far north). Given the observational trends,
consistent model guidance, and impressive parameter space (MU CAPE
1000-2000 J/kg, PWATs 1.8-2.2", and effective bulk shear of 30-50
kts) in this region, numerous instances of flash flooding are
likely (and will likely continue in already hard-hit areas).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!64O0Cm816C44cdDi1mjvwT8OvfrggdSB7Bh7jAfw0UbiNowuVJVkXfdaF41wJTzJkmOT= pFZJflW_LRCpqVgruRaqR58$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41959347 40939349 40279591 40769746 41679621=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021306
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021305Z - 021600Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is possible as very slow moving
thunderstorms over southeast Georgia are locally producing
incredible rainfall rates to 5 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front over southeast Georgia is acting
as a focus for thunderstorms that have been producing incredible
rainfall rates to 5 inches per hour this morning. Fortunately, up
to this point the heaviest rainfall rates have been over
unpoplated coastal marshes...however some of the inland cells have
been producing rates to 2.5 inches per hour, which could cause
flash flooding if they move over more urban areas, potentially
including Savannah.

CAMs guidance has not been handling the evolution of these cells
well. Most of the guidance suggests they will dissipate soon, but
the latest radar trends show the cells have been maintaining their
strength, if not intensifying in some areas. The cells are very
slow-moving, but have been crawling northward towards more
populated areas, including Savannah. 1 hour FFGs are around 2-2.5
inches and 3-hour FFGs are between 2.5-3 inches for Savannah, with
an area of extreme southern SC near I-95 much lower due to recent
heavy rainfall. Given the aforementioned rates the cells are
producing, flash flooding is possible where the cells are most
persistent.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_b30Hg9fwVvMgOjnhQIk3Ix_pfBOBsfyxnzbk6Aku3LkmU9KULytpq5C4Xn4VGECXoPk= doziI_jVZv_MGvGK813GO2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32788182 32788153 32458110 32278090 32008082=20
31628114 31698127 31838151 31978166 32248188=20
32618198=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021810
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona...Western New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021810Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms. Spots of 1-2" over
areas with well above normal rainfall over last few weeks, will
pose scattered but localized flash flooding incidents.

DISCUSSION...A broad longwave trough continues to slide through
the central Rockies of WY/CO resulting in gap in return flow
across NW Mexico into the Southwest, generally centered along the
AZ/NM border before angling northeast across north-central NM.=20=20
The leaves much of NE AZ, N NM within favorable right entrance
divergence outflow channel. CIRA LPW also notes a wave of 700-500
over the Sun Valley lifting northeast highlighted by enhanced
moisture along downstream confluence streamlines with eastern
deformation zone across the SE San Francisco Plateau, while deeper
850-500 moisture lifts north out of central Sonora into SE AZ and
across the Mogollon, Black, Gallo and Gallina Mtns. While deep
layer moisture totals generally overlap through this axis the
range is a tad lower than the last few days with 1-1.25" total
PWats, still more will filter through the terrain with some 1.5"
values expected across Cochise county coming out of the Sea of
Cortez. Full sun has allowed for solid instability to build with
localized pockets of SBCAPEs start to reach 2000-2500 J/kg where
valley Tds are in the low 60s in SE AZ/SW NM, though average
values of 1500 J/kg even up into the Plateau should feed stronger
thunderstorms later into the afternoon.

Initial convection appears to be developing along favored upslope
ridge lines across the deep moisture axis. Initial thunderstorms
are likely to support .25-.5"/hr rates as the mid-levels fully
saturate. However, deep layer steering is very weak at the
periphery of that outflow channel to the north; this supports
effective bulk shear of 20-25kts across the central border of
AZ/NM, so there may be slightly better organization to support
multiple up/down draft cycles. Deep layer steering is weak at
5-10kts with south-southeast propagation at 0-5kts, so slow
motions should allow for increased duration. As the afternoon
goes, the stronger heating and therefore updrafts that are spurred
on by outflow boundary collisions by the first few rounds may
support rates of 1-1.5"/hr and spots of 1-2" totals. Coverage
should be scattered to numerous in nature today, though equal
areas are likely to miss out given the expected small to middle
size updraft widths.

NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil saturation ratios are in the 90th
percentile plus across the area of concern. However, areas of
Catron, W Sacorro, central Cibola and S Apache county have seen
well above average moisture as soil saturation values are well
above that percentile with ratios over 55% and spots of 75-80%
suggesting limited further infiltration in areas of deeper soil,
but also rain should fall on barren rock areas as well, so give
this, there will likely be multiple incidents of flash flooding
though highly localized in nature through 00z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5cj9I6mcwTQocpjS-zWFpJaJt-WX8XJbmhenVSW9FBXYxx7tiTCSCil-DlxKlCTP9Bgp= K0B3e1Iv7Zcb5ZYPp1c3Chg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36670690 36110600 35160640 34130671 33100711=20
32010782 31240815 31200955 31261131 31851174=20
33551160 34901213 35571074=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021837
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021836Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Training convection expected to develop along a warm
front ahead of a developing low will cause storms to develop with
rates up to 3 inches per hour. Given recent heavy rainfall, flash
flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...Broad, nearly unidirectional WSW flow across Iowa has
developed ahead of a developing low and right entrance region of a southwesterly upper level jet streak. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop along this warm frontal boundary, which the
surface low will track along through the afternoon. The air mass
south of the warm front is anomalously moist, with PWATs over 2
inches across southwest Iowa from SPC Mesoanalysis. MUCAPE values
are over 4,000 J/kg in the northwest corner of Missouri, so the
atmosphere is well-primed for the development of strong convection
through the afternoon. Much of Iowa has seen 200 to 300% of their
normal rainfall over the past 2 weeks, so soils are nearly
saturated and many rivers in the area are above flood stage
already.

The storms are expected to be fast moving in the unidirectional
flow, which will certainly help to hold down rainfall totals in
any one area, however due to the high likelihood of training
storms as well as rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour,
additional flash flooding from the storms is likely where the
strongest training storms are the most persistent. This is most
likely to occur over central Iowa. WoFS guidance highlights the
corridor from the southwest corner of Iowa to the southwest corner
of Wisconsin through the east side of Des Moines as the most
likely corridor for 2 inch per hour rates with some 3 inch per
hour rates possible through Des Moines. By the time the storms
reach eastern Iowa towards 00Z, much of the CAMs guidance is in
agreement that the storms will have bowed out into an intense
squall line, which will greatly limit the potential for flash
flooding. However, due to ongoing major river flooding along the
Mississippi River, the additional rainfall from the line could
cause localized nuisance flash flooding due to poor drainage from
adjacent land areas.

Additional training convection may form this evening, so updates
along and south of this MPD area are likely.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4VJuLLqBP_Q4M39ml2Pn1aOSTVJ8AitP8Rc45vC4obxzU6GwI_nS7VMc1QOi8-gF6-TF= -iTLkE8LV3NMITAiRflMVEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 43249100 43119042 42849025 41658985 41139117=20
40219450 40229579 41449574 42159539 42479482=20
43059333=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022303
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-030430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern MO...Southeast
IA...Nortwest IL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022300Z - 030430Z

SUMMARY...Upstream development across recently saturated soils in
NE KS with rates of 2-3"/hr and potential axes of training pose
likely flash flooding conditions over the later evening.=20
Downstream maturing squall line to continue to track
east-southeast with similar 2-3"/hr rates and localized 3-5"
totals through 03z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depict mid to upper level warming
across central NEB with a subtle anti-cyclonic arched cirrus
banding indicative of a subtle upper-level jet streak across SE
NEB into SW IA; both suggestive of increased digging of the polar
shortwave providing DPVA and right entrance ascent across Eastern
KS and downstream. 22z surface analysis denotes this response
with an amplifying wave lifting through central KS northeastward
and backing surface winds across NE KS. Additionally, this has
backed the LLJ just a bit with 30-35kts of increasing confluent
flow across the Lower Missouri Valley. Deep moisture pooling has
increased total PWat values into the 2.25" range and the
combination of factors has seen recent convective initiation
across NE KS (and a bowing line across south-central KS). Expect
further convective development/expansion along the frontal zone
with some back-building of the upwind portion of the squall line
across N MO. This will provide an area of favorable deep layer
unidirectional flow parallel to the convergence axis to support
short term training. Given the parameters, of 2500-3000 J/kg
across N MO and adj. KS; rates of 2-3"/hr are probable and with
training streaks of 3-5" are possible before cold pools and
upstream shortwave support forward propagation generally after
01-02z. Recent heavy rainfall over the region, has resulted in
lowered FFG values of 1-1.5"/hr and below 2.5"/3hr which are
likely to be exceeded resulting in broad axes of flash flooding
conditions perhaps in and around the Kansas City Metro area
(though more probable to the north and east given current trends).


Further east into the Mississippi Valley...
Regional RADAR and visible imagery depict a mature squall line
extending from north-central MO/south-central IA starting to march
into E IA and far SW WI. The warm front has surged northward
along the southern edge of the eroding clouds in S WI. However, a
pre-frontal surface wave developed downstream of the southern
stream shortwave across central IA, but that wave is starting to
accelerate northeastward and height-falls is starting to bow the
QLCS out across SE IA. This will intersect and become more
parallel to the 925-850mb moisture flux convergence channel and
with upstream warm advection/backing influence from approaching
polar shortwave; better moisture flux convergence will exist from
the nose of the bowing segment in SE IA/N IL back southwest into
northern MO. As noted, higher instability into the 3000 J/kg
range, total Pwat to 2.25-2.4" and 25-30kts of inflow should
support highly efficient rainfall production with 3"/hr rates
likely. Training will become a bit less likely given strength of
southeasterly propagation, but spots of 3-5" are likely across NE
MO/SE IA/far NW IL. Recent WoFS solutions continue to shift this
bulls-eye south and east with each run, but there is a consistency
of of the mean values in this range, though 90th percentile values
are in the 7-8" maximum ranges at the nose of pressing bow with
spots of 4-5" across northern MO. This is further south of the
12z/18z Hi-res guidance, but given the trends, there is increasing
confidence that portions of this area will see considerable
rainfall totals and flash flooding conditions, even though soils
have been drier they are still at 40-55% of capacity through 40cm.


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2qkcUjv-Rtl5GTS-BSlDJaXxFTVnMCGoaHiIHg4EyXECwGrBS9h6yVDh2PmQjv_fUAZ= J7VHQvJTx0-luUOSuyqOWL0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LOT...LSX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42389008 42368897 41868852 40848891 39479109=20
38549368 38109619 38829697 39639600 40029499=20
40509344 41169201=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022328
FFGMPD
WIZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022330Z - 030330Z

SUMMARY...Quick moving but relatively efficient warm advection
showers crossing saturated/low FFG soils pose possible low-end
flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis denotes a pre-frontal surface
low along the QLCS crossing eastern IA. The larger synoptic
triple-point remains further upstream across north-central IA with
the warm front crossing northeast IA into southern WI; generally
driven northward by clearing skies and strengthening 10-15kts of south-southeasterly flow. Temps have rebounded into the upper
70s/lower 80s with mid to upper 60s Tds in the vicinity of the
warm front, but not much to support surface based CAPE. Still,
there is a modest 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to maintain/develop a
few elevated thunderstorms north of the pre-frontal surface wave.=20
These cells have some overshooting tops and cooling to -60C and
with the low level moisture flux though 850mb should be supportive
of 1.5-2"/hr rates. Forward speed is likely to limit overall
duration, given the orientation of the southwesterly steering
there is a bit of cross-tracks for the elevated cells to support
1-1.5 hours of heavy rainfall resulting a streak or two of
1.5-2.5" totals across southern Wisconsin in the next few hours.

This would normally be of little concern, but a recently wet
period has saturated the upper soil column with broad areas of
60-65+% ratios and 200-300% of normal over the last 7-14 days per
AHPS. As such, hourly FFG values are below 1.5" and <2"/3hrs
across much of the MPD area. Given the rates and totals,
localized flash flooding is considered possible through the
evening hours as the line passes.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5uY9-JsRnk3TWpV1K7XABgMNG1CHp8sN_pUYpHTpf46Yb9Fuk2kbVRM06dxYftuGOZfw= o14tTYfLqOGNwVZi0HhhQcE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44538803 44268749 43378774 42838763 42518792=20
42538998 42639058 43339045 43988947=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030006
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Southwest to East-Central NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030005Z - 030515Z

SUMMARY...Larger clusters of monsoon convection continue to
propagate/seek out remaining unstable pockets. Cell
mergers/collisions resulting in quick 1-2" totals likely to result
in widely scattered and localized flash flooding conditions
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite loops shows broad area of monsoon
activity across Southeast AZ into central NM and downstream into
the southern High Plains. Earlier instability maxima near central
Catron county has diminished but producing clusters of convection
along its periphery, generally concentrated along the southern and
eastern edges. Proximity to the distant right entrance to the 3H
50-70kt jet streak over CO and latent heat release has supported a
weak mid-level wave development across this area while supporting
solid evacuation of cells for moderately organized monsoonal
clusters. There remain some pockets of untapped instability
across SE AZ, SW NM and portions of eastern NM, outflow from the
clusters will congeal/collide and result in a few more clusters to
develop. Deep moisture of 1.25-1.5" along the southern boarder
should make rainfall rates a tad higher across these areas at
1-1.5"/hr resulting in spots of of 1-2" totals.

Areas into the high plains will see stronger moisture flux
convergence in proximity to sagging frontal zone across the TX
panhandle, given 15-20kts of sfc to 700mb confluence. This may
result in convergence and similar 1-1.5"/hr rates even though
moisture is slightly reduced through depth in E NM. Additionally,
this confluence will cross the lower FFG areas in San
Miguel/Torrance and Guadalupe counties locally increasing
potential for spotty flash flooding there as well. All
considered. Flash flooding incidents are still considered possible
though overall coverage should diminish to more widely scattered
than earlier this afternoon to evening and near zero a hour or so
after sunset and remaining pockets of unstable air, start to
stabilize.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!99-__coVvGanlQi6PHYwVx0Q4MqKFAnShFCTGq7fXBoZEKJ3-4vAv2Te1j2sJGcy0vqm= QbgFk2CPXwofJBXmy8H1vv8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35690544 35690450 35530360 35080307 34430340=20
33980399 33430486 32740537 32290609 31450781=20
31210901 31191018 31391097 32331142 33320998=20
34140897 35050814 35470705=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030456
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-031055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...much of central and northern MO...adjacent
portions of west-central IL and far northeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030455Z - 031055Z

Summary...Additional isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible as MCS slowly wanes/progresses. Some flash
flooding may be locally significant (particularly if convection
backbuilds further in northern MO).

Discussion...A mature squall line has gradually transitioned into
a more consolidated MCS (mesoscale convective system) over the
past several hours, as surface based instability has been
completely exhausted over portions of the Upper Midwest (from
southeast IA into northwest IL). While some elevated instability
(500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE) remains across this region, the much
more favored locations going forward are to the south and west (central/northern MO and downstream portions of west-central IL),
where rich surface ThetaE air (350K+) is resulting in SB/ML CAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg (despite relatively mediocre low-level and
mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 degC/km). The most impressive
deep tropospheric moisture is also centered over central and
northern MO, with precipitable water values of 2.2-2.5 inches
(well above the max moving average of SGF sounding climatology,
remarkable given the site nearly 200 miles south). But perhaps the
most concerning development is the backbuilding of convection
occurring over northwest MO (much closer to a surface cold front
which significantly trails the bulk of the convection to the
east), as a 30-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ) provides ample moisture
transport and convergence. And while the aforementioned lapse
rates are rather lacking for upper-level thermodynamic support,
the combination of an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex, which
originated from convection near the OK/KS border earlier today)
and strong diffluence/divergence aloft (via the right-entrance
region of a 100 kt jet streak over northern WI/MI) is supporting
convection in this crucial upstream region.

The latest hi-res guidance is a bit messy, given the complicated
mesoscale evolution of convection that has taken place. Overall,
the HREF signal is clearly displaced too far northeast with the
QPF maxima (given the observational trends), but the more recent
runs of the HRRR have done a good job assimilating and reflecting
a southwest shift. When accounting for this southwest shift (as
well as a reduction in the QPF magnitude from prior cycles of the
HREF, which may be a bias due to the assimilation struggles),
additional localized totals of 2-4" are expected across the
region. These amounts would clearly be most problematic across the
northern tier of the outlooked region (i.e. across portions of
northern MO), but this is also where the forecast is most
uncertain (as it is dependent on continued backbuilding of
convection into an area that is relatively worked over with 3-hr
ML CAPE reductions of 1000-1400 J/kg). Should convection continue
to backbuild due to the many other favorable factors, then
localized significant instances of flash flooding may occur (over
these areas that have already received 2-4" over the past 3-6
hours). Farther south (where the heaviest rainfall and expected
2-4" localized totals are most likely), antecedent conditions are
much drier (with 3-6 hour FFGs generally ranging from 2-3"). As a
result, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible (and only conditionally likely farther north).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nQGZL2LUCO4udRpc7Qne1YY28EO7DafJx6EIkMwB6AmUpAcSA9ESh-Dp6Q1PwlND5xN= dozf6i8noXH8ZdoG1tIGtD0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40429142 40359071 40039035 38979041 38189138=20
37989287 38789461 39599540 40269374 40419249=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031831
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern AZ...Southwest & Western NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031830Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms capable of .75-1"/hr
rates and spots of 1-1.5" may pose possible widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Overall meteorological conditions continue to
downtrend relative to prior days; however, lingering above average
low level moisture, full insolation and favorable mid to upper
level orientation within the gap between two ridges and modest
outflow channel to the northeast across NM should spur widely
scattered thunderstorms in the next few hours. GOES-E satellite
suite shows an old MCV across northwest Chihuahua with downstream
deformation zone providing solid cloud cover diminishing
insolation there. To the west, peripheral enhanced moisture still
resides in SE AZ in the upper 50s to low 60s Tds and total PWats
near 1.25" especially along/the southern most counties of SE AZ/SW
NM. RAP analysis shows a trough of cooler temps at 5H across NE
to east-central AZ, aiding cooling aloft and steepening lapse
rates. This is also supporting northwesterly flow aiding
convergence with southerly/southwesterly flow across SE AZ toward
the Black Mountain range. As such, instability is increasing with
pockets of up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along the northwest edge of
the mid-level cloud cover. Upslope mountain flow is starting to
result in increased convective development on the peaks;
eventually this will expand off peak and reach deeper moisture
inflow to support .75-1"/hr rates toward peak heating in 2-3
hours.=20

Steering flow is weak in the larger scale mid-level trough, but
with limited organization; pulse convection is likely the main
mode and should result in some spots of 1-1.5" through 00z; but in
a widely scattered to scattered nature. Given the grounds are
saturated (where it isn't barren rock), run-off should be above
average, especially over SE AZ where precipitation anomalies are
400-600% of normal and soil conditions are in the upper 5th
percentiles. Though with more conditional organization to cells,
slightly reduced moisture (and localized flux) than prior days,
flash flooding is considered possible in that widely scatter-shot
distribution along and northwest in the MPD area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-tp9IpV6pbGaOzr1S1ve4PWhL5EK1lRuWUunSlQcywCHvNr4SWehFBXkxNuGAp5QDL5M= QdFRJrMNru5twbrOE2QEO0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34390764 33640728 32750763 31420823 31260950=20
31251094 31521171 31971165 32541108 32941067=20
33450997 34000967 34070878=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032045
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...South-central & Southeastern MO into Lower Ohio
River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032045Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Intense rates of to 2.5"/hr and favorable deep layer
flow for potential training may overcome ground/soil conditions
resulting in some possible localized flash flooding prior to
higher potential into the overnight period.=20

DISCUSSION...20z surface analysis denotes cold front sagged across
central IL into central MO and into southeastern KS; however, a
pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary from last evening
intersects/parallels the boundary from south-central MO across SE
MO into the Ohio River Valley and through SW to central OH. Solid
cloud cover has strengthened frontogensis across the area with a
20-25 degree gradient from central MO to S MO/N AR where temps are
in the low 90s though surface Tds remain in the mid to upper 70s
throughout he zone. Full insolation has resulted in a strong
instability gradient that orients to the outflow boundary
favorably. MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg exist across S-SE MO and into
W KY but remain in close proximity to the deeper q-axis that
exists in/just along the southern boundary of the cloud line.=20
Total PWat values of 2-2.25" are well above normal and with some
weak northerly flux and combination with low level high moisture
values in the area, should allow for high flux convergence to
support 2.5"/hr rates with perhaps an occasional 3" value, though
inflow is still weak at 5-10kts.

Favorable right entrance divergence will be increasing through the
late evening providing broader scale ascent and sufficient outflow
to maintain stronger updrafts; however, it is the orientation of
the mean flow that may allow for cell repeating/training in the
evening and incidents of 3-4" in 1-3hrs. Hydrologically, high
rates of this magnitude usually overcome most ground conditions;
however, there are some moderately dry conditions and naturally
higher FFG values in the region that even 3-4" total may be at the
limit of the FFG values. Still, drier than normal conditions, may
make for harder grounds and limit infiltration. So scattered
incidents of flash flooding are possible, especially if low level
flow strengthens and propagation vectors support back-building, at
worst, these rainfall totals will set the stage for the next round
later into tomorrow morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-kJW4WpQW6ZAwWVH7cySMtqfAKm5N8_z644KyXejt7eJOmQa-r8HpzhkXX7ocrNd3XYR= P0U3QJbjsbG7b9_nNUzYVEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38638988 38638901 38338790 37778755 37198804=20
36838951 36579121 36649333 37489359 38219205=20
38469109=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032130
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southern IND...Northern KY...Southwest OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032130Z - 040230Z

SUMMARY...Increasing moisture flux should support 2"/hr rates and
enough west to east cross-over tracks may allow for some localized
2-3"+ totals in 1-3hrs resulting in possible localized flash
flooding over the next few hours; particularly in/around the
steeper bluffs and urban centers of the Ohio River Valley.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis suggest an elongated mid-level shortwave
is currently crossing central OH into east-central IND at the
distant periphery of right-entrance/anticyclonically curved
portion of the 3H jet across the Great Lakes. This has maintained
low to mid-level confluence along the shear axis from NE OH across
S IL with CIRA LPW the narrow but vertically aligned plume from
KS/OK all the way through to IND/OH with 2" total PWat values
along/south of the shear axis. Additionally, a pre-frontal trough
that was reinforced by last night's convection/outflow has
provided sufficent surface to boundary layer convergence while
boundary layer to 700mb confluent flow through the Ohio Valley
adds to the flux convergence, particularly upstream across S IND.=20
'

Solid insolation prior to the boundary has seen temps into the
upper 80s, low 90s with low to mid 70s Tds, resulting in a very
unstable environment with 1500-2500 MLCAPE values along and south
of the boundary to feed stronger updrafts. Recent convective
development has cooled rapidly along the line with overshooting
tops below -60C dotting the line, continuing to expand...and will
likely support 2"/hr rates over the next few hours.=20

Recently dry soil conditions have resulted in higher than normal
FFG values and these rates alone, minus a few steep river bluffs
and urban centers across the area these rates alone are not likely
to be exceeded, especially with modest 25-30kts of forward speed.=20
This will require repeating/training cells to result in 2-3"
totals and increase the risk. Given the placement of the
elongated shortwave, the northern portion of the line should
become progressive enough across central OH and limit flooding
risk until the lower slopes of the Appalachian Plateau. However,
further southwest, the exiting shortwave and flatter 500-1000mb
thickness gradient suggest greater potential for a more west to
east orientation to cell motions and possible training.

This is conditional on cold pool generation that may increase
southward propagation and limit this potential. Yet, given the
shear intensity of the cells, broadening updrafts seen in spots
there is a low-end potential for streaks of 2-3" across the middle
Ohio River Valley and therefore flash flooding is considered
possible through evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-h7pvqnuiDvtlikpd3l9ZN1cLWARMkddl75F6jAkyobiw8HgH5hsMTevlcvmxTbc3aDF= PsURuCVwM2n8b2T8xfNv7YA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39438441 39358298 38918217 38148257 37838402=20
37788518 37788571 37888682 38008735 38298764=20
38598727 38798664 39068586=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032341
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southwest to south-central NEB...Northwest to
north-central KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032340Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Cell mergers and training/repeating may occur along
intersection of colliding convective lines across the nose of
enhanced moisture flux convergence. Rates of 2"/hr and spots of
2-3" totals pose possible flash flooding conditions

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-Visible loop depict a
fairly rapidly moving squall line across the Sand Hills of
Nebraska, though the southwest flank is reducing in forward speed
at the southern edge of deeper mid to upper-level flow. This is
orienting favorably for cores of the cells to repeat through the
South Platte Valley. Additionally, downstream, an isolated cell
developed near the Lincoln/Frontier county line in an advanced
area of enhanced low to mid-level moisture. Though there have
been a few left splits, the cell has remained stationary with
solid hail signature, though has some modest heavy rainfall core
building. Fairly soon, the lines will merge and present an issue
for rapid 1.5-2" in sub-hourly duration to add to the 1-2" that
have fallen.

Additionally, the cell resided within a SE to NW nose of enhanced
moisture and untapped instability that remained west of the deeper
cloud cover in E KS. Strengthening 15kt at surface and 25-30kts
at 850-700mb are backing to intersect orthogonal to the
approaching line. This will allow for increased forward
propagation to the southeast, but will also increase moisture flux
convergence that should rapidly result in a quick burst of very
intense rainfall rates. Totals of 1.5-2" should fall in less than
15-30 minutes with an additional .5-1" in the trailing moderate
shield and a swath of 2-3" totals may be possible over the next
few hours.=20

While current location in SW Nebraska has deep sandy soils that
could infiltrate much of that, the line will move further
southeast into less favorable infiltration and naturally lower FFG
values across north-central KS/south-central NEB; where 1hr FFG is
AoA 1.5" and 3hr are between 1.5-2.5". As such, localized flash
flooding may become an issue in the next few hours.

Additionally, the line of scattered cells in E CO is tracking a
bit north of due east may also intersect the best
moisture/instability axis at a similar time as the southeast
propagating line. Mergers with this line may further up-tick
short-term output further compounding localized flooding concerns
through the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__6-Mn-9dyGNT9Y60kU7OLzvECThTcoDaMzvKLuqiQT7pp0OdnoGHfrIqij9X1TXdeM_= xLOFL7DP5W1A_zz5mZ8DiBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41410000 40519845 40159809 39709814 39269861=20
39170002 39480103 40210184 40930191 41170086=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040132
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
931 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO...KY...Southern IND...Southern
OH...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040130Z - 040630Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
capable of 2"+/hr and spots of 2-3" and possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a line of scattered
thunderstorms along the old deep layer convergence zone across the
Ohio Valley back into southeast MO. Cells have become a bit more
fractured and have started producing outflow boundaries to the
south due to stabilizing environment with the loss of day-time
heating. Still within the narrow moisture ribbon/confluence zone,
the LLJ is strengthening slightly to 15-20kts with locations
further southwest increasing to 25kts. Higher unstable/theta-E
air still resides in the Mississippi and Lower Ohio/Tennessee
River valleys with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE, so there remains a
greater potential for maintaining or even redeveloping a few
thunderstorms across the Tri-Rivers area with deep layer steering
resulting in training toward Western and west-central KY though
the early overnight period.

Given Deep moisture and modest flux convergence, rates of
2-2.5"/hr are still probable upstream while downstream into E KY,
rates will slowly tick down toward 1.5-2"/hr. As such, spots of
2-4" may still exist across the western portion while 1-3" may be
a bit more common further east. Both rates/totals will provide
localized flash flooding risks, given lower FFG due to complex
terrain further but incidents should reduce in coverage/magnitude
as the cells slowly weaken.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-MwQ99MNfjUFmb7MYtMYjiUuUE50R4EoiC-BnJrfZGdE6vtrn36UY0ADe8zn6JEWGV5Q= xgWEu6ZQT0JwBixyqH9FKJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39028253 38538161 37938172 37438248 36808479=20
36538675 36438830 36318929 36198983 36249035=20
36469070 37039058 37858875 38418672 38788480=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040421
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...North-Central to Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040420Z - 041020Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms is
expected heading through the overnight hours. There is an
expectation for areas of cell-training, which coupled with high
rainfall rates will likely result in areas of flash flooding. This
will especially be the case for areas of eastern KS and
west-central MO heading into the predawn hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar is showing an expanding axis of rather
well-organized convection across areas north-central KS as an
upstream shortwave trough continues to eject east out into the
broader central Plains region. Overall, cloud tops have been
tending to cool over the last hour, and the area VWP data is
showing a gradual increase in a southwesterly low-level jet across
areas of central and eastern KS. Coinciding with this subsequent
increase in warm air advection/isentropic ascent has been the
development over the last hour of additional broken bands of
convection farther off to the east from near Concordia southward
to near Salina and well off to the east including areas adjacent
to Topeka.

The low-level jet should increase further overnight and reach as
high as 40 to 50 kts which will be a result of the approaching
shortwave energy/DPVA aloft and nocturnal enhancement. Much of the
convection over north-central and eastern KS right now is elevated
in nature given proximity of a warm front well to the south, but
the latest 00Z HREF guidance favors a rather strong nose of
elevated moisture and instability transport aiming up across
central and eastern KS, and eventually west-central MO heading
through the remainder of the night.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg across
southern KS currently, and this instability coupled with the
low-level jet and deeper layer ascent will yield a further
expansion of convection off to the east over the next several
hours. The convection is likely to attain some orientation that
will be nearly parallel to the deeper layer steering flow,
especially over eastern KS and west-central MO later tonight, and
this will favor strong concerns for cell-training.

PWs over eastern KS and western MO are quite high with values of
1.75 to 2 inches, and this combined with the level of instability
and moisture transport should yield rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2+ inches/hour with the stronger storms. Given the
cell-training concerns, it will be possible for some areas to see
as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain by dawn across especially eastern
KS and west-central MO.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to materialize, and multiple
metropolitan areas including Topeka and Kansas City may see a
notable concern for urban flash flooding later in the night.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4HDsFG6hH8zG5vgADyYBgLAa3bRJ_ZJqS1Y1mATcNeJQruKGzYim30o6TW031n4lkfZy= sQNgDr5JrlNsHUQCH2psba4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40149703 39839459 39139326 38289304 37939387=20
38109592 38659800 38979895 39459905 39839853=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040712
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040710Z - 041045Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern MO will be posing an increasing
threat of flash flooding in the predawn hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery is showing a band of loosely organized
convection beginning to locally train in a west to east fashion
across portions of central and eastern MO. The convection is
focusing along an elevated instability gradient and is being
facilitated by an increasing southwest low-level jet. The VWP data
from KSGF validates this and shows a nose of 30+ kt winds at 850mb
nosing up toward areas of central and eastern MO with as much as
1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE noted near and just south of the
overall axis of convection.

Over the next few hours, additional expansion of more linearly
oriented convection is expected for areas of central and eastern
MO as the low-level jet further strengthens and thus facilitates
stronger speed convergence and warm air advection/isentropic
ascent within the elevated instability axis.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and
will be supportive of heavy rainfall rates that may reach 2
inches/hour. Given the increasing concerns of cell-training, some
totals going through the predawn hours may reach 3 to 4 inches.

Given that these rains will likely be falling over areas that have
seen heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, and with locally
elevated streamflows already occurring, these additional rains are
likely to cause areas of flash flooding.

Additional heavy rains upstream over eastern KS and west-central
MO associated with more organized and stronger convection will
also be approaching toward dawn and into the early to mid-morning
hours. Thus the flash flood threat is likely to only increase with
time.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ot8-6WU4BRfWD78xJXxQk2vjrNkN2vTp_ElbSLAWwgEpTknWNwyd18oU2YcwStLQXSW= kH5k0a0MaoYG8SqernLkm7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39269230 39229138 39079047 38609009 38219040=20
38089089 38059248 38449367 39139336=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040913
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-041512-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Far Eastern KS...Central and Eastern
MO...South-Central IL...Southwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040912Z - 041512Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
will continue to spread off to the east this morning. Substantial
cell-training is expected to occur and additional flash flooding
is likely across central and eastern MO, with the threat also
spreading east across south-central IL. Locally severe urban flash
flooding is a strong possibility along a corridor extending from
Kansas City east through Columbia and down to St. Louis.

DISCUSSION...A significant band of training convection has been
aligning itself in a west to east fashion across areas of far
eastern KS and extending east across central and eastern MO.
Multiple major metropolitan areas are under a threat for severe
urban flash flooding as a result, including Kansas City, Columbia
and St. Louis.

The convection continues to organize and focus in response to an
approaching shortwave trough crossing the central Plains with
strong warm air advection out ahead of it. A southwest low-level
jet on the order of 30 to 40+ kts continues to nose up across
southwest to central MO and is focusing a corridor of robust
moisture convergence and elevated instability transport. Much of
the convection is embedded within an axis of MUCAPE values that
are on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg.

Going through the morning hours, the ongoing west to east band of
training convection should continue to propagate off to the east
and will be impacting more areas of especially eastern MO from
Columbia down through St. Louis, and also increasingly into areas
of south-central IL as the stronger axis of warm air advection and
forcing shifts off to the east across these areas. Eventually
areas of southwest IN may also get into some of this activity.

The rainfall rates should continue to be quite high, and capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms given the
persistence of the low-level jet, high PW environment and degree
of instability that is in place.

Overall, the HRRR guidance looks notably underdone with its QPF
based on the latest radar and satellite trends, with the 00Z/06Z
HREF consensus appearing more realistic. Additional rainfall
totals going through mid-morning may locally reach 4 to 6 inches,
and with already sensitive conditions with moist soils and
elevated streamflows, flash flooding is highly likely over the
next several hours. As mentioned, there will be a threat for
severe urban flash flooding from Kansas City east through Columbia
and down into the St. Louis metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ojYCxuvUIy_fjIwtZYocI-GxI_0zUcWO3j9yvuRPmAa2iPOiggHwU_0nQv4TOt3O5KT= yIGgbsRHHQkRSqS8_xWyqdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39789352 39739052 39508860 39128725 38408653=20
37808705 37698974 38089370 38639492 39359487=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040920
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-041518-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Far Eastern KS...Central and Eastern
MO...South-Central IL...Southwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040918Z - 041518Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
will continue to spread off to the east this morning. Substantial
cell-training is expected to occur and additional flash flooding
is likely across central and eastern MO, with the threat also
spreading east across south-central IL. Locally severe urban flash
flooding is a strong possibility along a corridor extending from
Kansas City east through Columbia and down to St. Louis.

DISCUSSION...A significant band of training convection has been
aligning itself in a west to east fashion across areas of far
eastern KS and extending east across central and eastern MO.
Multiple major metropolitan areas are under a threat for severe
urban flash flooding as a result, including Kansas City, Columbia
and St. Louis.

The convection continues to organize and focus in response to an
approaching shortwave trough crossing the central Plains with
strong warm air advection out ahead of it. A southwest low-level
jet on the order of 30 to 40+ kts continues to nose up across
southwest to central MO and is focusing a corridor of robust
moisture convergence and elevated instability transport. Much of
the convection is embedded within an axis of MUCAPE values that
are on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg.

Going through the morning hours, the ongoing west to east band of
training convection should continue to propagate off to the east
and will be impacting more areas of especially eastern MO from
Columbia down through St. Louis, and also increasingly into areas
of south-central IL as the stronger axis of warm air advection and
forcing shifts off to the east across these areas. Eventually
areas of southwest IN may also get into some of this activity.

The rainfall rates should continue to be quite high, and capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms given the
persistence of the low-level jet, high PW environment and degree
of instability that is in place.

Overall, the HRRR guidance looks notably underdone with its QPF
based on the latest radar and satellite trends, with the 00Z/06Z
HREF consensus appearing more realistic. Additional rainfall
totals going through mid-morning may locally reach 4 to 6 inches,
and with already sensitive conditions with moist soils and
elevated streamflows, flash flooding is highly likely over the
next several hours. As mentioned, there will be a threat for
severe urban flash flooding from Kansas City east through Columbia
and down into the St. Louis metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Oo0587hIOvrYTdmwnLiJXVs_cVFDofk-1SeHZezyzjG7E0YSW9y36VbkTiE7r5cg5Jq= 8sA2fj73HGSPSeMlu6ZQSzg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39789352 39739052 39508860 39128725 38408653=20
37808705 37698974 38089370 38639492 39359487=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041458
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041456Z - 042000Z

Summary...MCS continues this morning across portions of the Ohio
River Valley. Periods of training storms with 2"/hr rainfall rates
will maintain a threat of some flash flooding this morning as the
complex moves east.

Discussion...IR and regional radar this morning depicts a
northeast-southwest oriented arc of thunderstorms exhibiting some
training characteristics as the complex lifts east-northeast.
Recent radar and MRMS hourly rainfall estimates suggest 2"/hr
rainfall rates have materialized within the most intense cores of
this activity over portions of southeast IL and IN.

This maintenance of this complex remains tied to a focused
low-level jet providing plenty of convergence and theta-e
advection atop a well defined (but balanced) cold-pool, with 40-50
kts of 850 mb inflow evident on KLSX and KVWX VWPs ahead of an
emerging MCV. An anticyclonically curved jet streak is also noted
to the north over the Upper Midwest, which will likely contribute
additional forcing for ascent. Within the inflow region of this
complex, recent mesoanalysis and GPS estimates denote 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE and PWATS upwards of 2.2-2.4" -- which is well above
the 90th percentile and near the daily record max for some
sounding sites in the region. When combined with warm cloud layers
around 13000 feet, the environment will remain highly conducive
for efficient warm rain production this morning as the environment
spreads east.

Over the next several hours, the concern remains for periods of
this efficient training to persist across the Ohio Valley.
Overnight CAMS in the HREF suite have struggled with the placement
and orientation of QPF through the morning hours, likely in part
due to issues initializing the MCV. However, recent runs of the
HRRR seem to have a somewhat better handle on the mesoscale
environment surrounding the MCS--including both the MCV location
and subsequent uptick in low-level inflow. Where echo training can
occur, rainfall amounts of 2-4" in a fairly short amount of time
will be possible through 19-20Z. This could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding as FFGs in the region are quite low,
around 1-2"/hour.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_rwED249iFNbjGEYKX8IFaHHq_EhSifoGOf2jTJ2p_uamX_omocbMxf6qhiFW2nEiy_S= a6njjDJ1UlRQUMHkIUGD0fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39978491 39868423 39298301 37978254 37468336=20
37838570 37148796 37778853 38948765 39768642=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041510
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Corrected for MPD Number

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041456Z - 042000Z

Summary...MCS continues this morning across portions of the Ohio
River Valley. Periods of training storms with 2"/hr rainfall rates
will maintain a threat of some flash flooding this morning as the
complex moves east.

Discussion...IR and regional radar this morning depicts a
northeast-southwest oriented arc of thunderstorms exhibiting some
training characteristics as the complex lifts east-northeast.
Recent radar and MRMS hourly rainfall estimates suggest 2"/hr
rainfall rates have materialized within the most intense cores of
this activity over portions of southeast IL and IN.

This maintenance of this complex remains tied to a focused
low-level jet providing plenty of convergence and theta-e
advection atop a well defined (but balanced) cold-pool, with 40-50
kts of 850 mb inflow evident on KLSX and KVWX VWPs ahead of an
emerging MCV. An anticyclonically curved jet streak is also noted
to the north over the Upper Midwest, which will likely contribute
additional forcing for ascent. Within the inflow region of this
complex, recent mesoanalysis and GPS estimates denote 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE and PWATS upwards of 2.2-2.4" -- which is well above
the 90th percentile and near the daily record max for some
sounding sites in the region. When combined with warm cloud layers
around 13000 feet, the environment will remain highly conducive
for efficient warm rain production this morning as the environment
spreads east.

Over the next several hours, the concern remains for periods of
this efficient training to persist across the Ohio Valley.
Overnight CAMS in the HREF suite have struggled with the placement
and orientation of QPF through the morning hours, likely in part
due to issues initializing the MCV. However, recent runs of the
HRRR seem to have a somewhat better handle on the mesoscale
environment surrounding the MCS--including both the MCV location
and subsequent uptick in low-level inflow. Where echo training can
occur, rainfall amounts of 2-4" in a fairly short amount of time
will be possible through 19-20Z. This could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding as FFGs in the region are quite low,
around 1-2"/hour.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-0PuYUJzLIf41gvg0ClSZVdo_Q9wtN2ZarUYxlYCzkZdbky3t6PBI52NNO1r9to5hRRD= 70mxZwU0cM8FPs4nC-X2DpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39978491 39868423 39298301 37978254 37468336=20
37838570 37148796 37778853 38948765 39768642=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041704
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042258-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Corrected for MPD Number

Areas affected...Northern Plains...Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041658Z - 042258Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Slow storm motions (10-15 kts) combined with 1.5-2" rainfall rates
in the most prolific cells may lead to some flash flooding this
afternoon.

Discussion...Surface and VWP data helped place a vertically
stacked low center between KABR and KMVX on the cyclonic side of a
curved mid-level jet streak entering the region. As this low
becomes increasingly defined, recent cellular activity late this
morning has exhibited an uptick in lightning density and estimated
rainfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr at times, generally along a KABR to
KFSD line.

This uptick in activity can likely be attributed to persistent
differential advection across the region (CAA aloft with
strengthening low level southerly flow) in the presence of very
divergent and diffluent upper-level pattern. Current mesoanalysis
and GPS estimates suggest 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1.2-1.4"
PWATS (around the 90th percentile) available to foster efficient
rainfall production, generally in a "tall-skinny" profile. Several
embedded mesoscale circulations are also noted within the larger
precipitation shield, which will locally enhance rainfall rates.

Through this afternoon, the main concern is for these efficient
showers and thunderstorms to move slowly (10-15 kts) and
regenerate near the closed low center as it meanders eastward. The
12z HREF suite remains quite aggressive with rainfall totals
(2-4") through at least 22z as the ongoing activity expands and
develops more. This is likely to result in scattered instances of
flash flooding, as much of the region is highly saturated in light
of earlier rainfall events this month. NASA SPoRT 0-100 cm soil
moisture percentiles depict soils nearly at capacity across the
region, while numerous gauges at the the West Fork Des Moines and
Mississippi River show Minor to Moderate observed flood stages. As
such, flash flooding is considered likely going into this
afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Tbcw8j3cDBONMDai4ztVaMGYc-CNFEAYnGWMndv7QKtgz-Yh3unTzi7lPgBstNg-rOZ= trEckM41N2ReA96qBHbE8_I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46609634 45459240 43769145 42839276 43259530=20
44009642 44979846 46169858=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041832
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0556
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...West Virginia...Portions of Adj. OH, PA, VA, & KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041830Z - 042300Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorms with very deep moisture
crossing complex terrain. Signs of upstream redevelopment suggest
localized spots of 1.5-3" are possible resulting in widely
scattered and localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um EIR and regional RADAR mosaic
has seen a recent strengthening of thunderstorms with a arching
presentation at the lead edge of surge of deeper moisture and
unstable conditions. EIR temps show numerous bubbling
overshooting tops reaching -70C intermittently. Given highly
unstable (2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and highly anomalous moisture (low
to mid 70s Tds) with increased deep layer moisture flux with this
line is resulting in very strong over-turning convective cells.
Given total PWats over 2" (even in elevated terrain), cells will
be capable of 2"/hr rates; though currently strong mid-level
flow/outflow surging has aided by forward propagation limiting
duration and therefore totals to 1-1.5", though in sub-hourly
(15-30 min.) manner. This alone may trigger some localized flash
flooding given 1hr FFG are in the same general range across much
of the state and into SW PA.=20

Of further concern, though, is the upstream environment appears to
be recovering fairly quickly with clearing skies and westerly
moist advecting flow. This suggests additional upstream
redevelopment is probable over the next few hours. Given the
overall coverage of the initial round and probable scattered
nature with the upcoming round(s), multiple locations may receive
an additional round with a similar 2"/hr rate with sub-hourly
totals in the same 1-1.5" range; resulting in spots of 2-3"
possible through the evening hours, once again at the FFG limit of 1.5-2.5"/3hr, suggesting scattered localized incidents of flash
flooding are possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!78uwkUkO8ZG_B3ocE2HxUfYysSl83f8VJLgAts-xaMFKHFXQgKMAGggxOdGDo4n4fs2_= GwCXORwk45MPLQw5eeMsAgw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40118004 39897960 39407953 38817958 38207992=20
37418033 37088080 37018159 37158218 37778256=20
38438271 39178248 39698146 39948076=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042118
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-050300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern MN...Northeastern IA...Southern
WI...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042120Z - 050300Z

SUMMARY...Solid moisture flux and instability to support 1.5-2"/hr
rates and localized 2-3" with potential repeating cells in the
vicinity of the warm front and recently saturated soils suggests
an incident or two of flash flooding may be possible through
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts strong dynamic environment with
a strong closed/occluding low across Southern MN slowly drifting
eastward. Visible imagery and 21z surface analysis clearly shows
a warm front draped eastward across SE MN and S WI with scattered
thunderstorms developing along it in WI; wile advancing strong
cold front with 15-20kts of westerly CAA is providing strong
convergence for broader overall thunderstorms in proximity of the
triple point near KJYG and southward along the front across
north-central IA. Strong diffluence in left exit of 90+kt 3H jet
rounding the based of the deeper low along with strong DPVA ahead
of the mid-level wave will further deepen the low and
strengthen/back low level flow in the warm sector while
strengthening moisture flux into the developing cells. Deep
layer moisture is a bit limited with 1.3-1.5" total PWats and
surface Tds in the mid to upper 60s suggest rainfall
production/efficiency will be much less than what has been
experienced over the last few weeks; that have saturated the upper
soil profiles which remain between 60-75% per NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm product.

Pooled instability along/south of the warm frontal zone remains
modest with 1000-1500 J/kg. Though with stronger convergence
thunderstorm updrafts are starting to cool below -50C and expand
in coverage. Rates of 1-1.5"/hr will become more common with some
isolated 1.75" for any slower, rotating cells that may
isallobarically enhance moisture flux convergence into the
updrafts...mainly in proximity to the warm front. Cell motion is
likely to diminish overall totals given 30-40kts of mean steering
flow; again with exception of slowed rotating cells which may be
in the 20-25kt range per Bunkers right moving vectors. FFG values
are lowered due to saturated soils at 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2"/3hrs;
so it is likely more critical for cells to be repeating or
training along/in proximity to the warm front to generate those
spots of 2-3" that are possible to result in flash flooding
conditions. So, best potential will reside across SE MN, far NE
IA into S WI this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4lFpIdJLfHU8IiyeanWIiDD1IEjV9W7EN2kK6FQVzmrJOgCZCCVKXNrrBPVnxfNVLjss= d6d2BVnFlZz8lVm6Eq1MzXo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44779329 44719138 44609026 44468938 44278855=20
43898777 43338777 42638795 42528877 42538962=20
42569119 42519220 42639361 42949414 43899355=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050048
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Northeast & Eastern OK...Southwest MO...Northwest
AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050045Z - 050545Z

SUMMARY...Weakly organized convection within very rich moisture
field may produce locally intense rainfall that may produce a few
incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Current regional RADAR mosaic depicts scattered
thunderstorms across eastern OK that have developed in very weak
low level flow environment. While environment has been very
unstable with 3500-4000 J/kg of CAPE, inflow at cloud base has
been limited to less than 10kts and 7H wind field has shown
divergence across the area to limit organization in the near term;
with new development sprouting on older outflow. Still, moisture
rich environment with over 2-2.25" total PWats result in quick 2"
in about an hour, before collapsing. This alone is not going to
exceed the very high FFG values, but with soil saturation below
15% across much of eastern OK, this hard ground may not allow much
infiltration given these intense sub-hourly rates and may result
in very high run off. Given the broader up/downdrafts, these may
cross multiple smaller watersheds (or urban centers) resulting in
lower-end localized flash flooding conditions.

As night falls, surface analysis and RAP trends show the cold
front is starting to press southward across SE KS given stronger
height-falls as the mid-level trough starts digging and the jet
streak starts to expand right entrance region divergence
downstream across SW MO/NW AR. While slightly drier, there
remains a shallow moisture pool post front, so with strengthening
15-25kts of west to northwest flow counter to the 5-10kts of
southwest/south flow, moisture convergence will increased in
proximity the boundary and overall convective coverage will
increase from scattered to numerous. Divergence/outflow and DPVA
may aid overall organization of convection with some repeating
elements crossing over to SW MO/NW AR after nightfall. Similar
2-2.5"/hr rates will result in spots of 2-3"; this may be most
concerning for the lowered FFG across S MO where there has been
recent rainfall, but again; sub-hourly intensity across harder
ground conditions further south in AR may also result in possible
spotty incidents of flash flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8aW-Vl-GPtSRHA2Ca8Gqr_wUKtEQGDMLksOfrbucD8IMXrYHh55ZsVtyyGoEGoJcnt_0= Po4wm_TWVSQuGeA3AX8V_dY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37979268 37659167 36899128 35909162 35379242=20
34959405 34789548 35219656 36199669 36719618=20
36989505 37499407=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050348
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-050800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Eastern OH...Northern WV Panhandle...Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050347Z - 050800Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
overnight with heavy rainfall rates may result in a few instances
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late evening WPC surface analysis depicts a wave
of low pressure advancing gradually off to the east across central
OH with a quasi-stationary front extending east from here across
western and central PA. A trailing cold front extends southwest of
the low down along the OH River.

There is a corridor of moderate moisture flux convergence noted
across eastern OH out ahead of the surface wave in close proximity
to the front, and the latest RAP analysis does show a nose of
instability aiming up across this region with the aid of a 20 to
30 kt southwest low-level jet. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
are seen oriented from southern OH up into southwest PA, and this
has been helping to facilitate a few broken bands of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

PWs across the region are anomalously high in vicinity of the
front, with values locally as high as 2.0 to 2.25 inches which is
a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. This is helping
to drive locally very heavy rainfall rates with some of the
stronger storms given a rather efficiently deep layer of tropical
moisture.

Over the next few hours, this wave of low pressure should edge
gradually toward western PA and should allow for convection over
eastern OH to also move back into areas of western PA where there
has already been locally some heavy rainfall earlier in the
evening. The convection also is rather slow-moving and some of the
cells may tend to locally repeat over the same area. Portions of
the panhandle of northern WV may also possibly see some of this
activity.

The 00Z HREF guidance favors rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and suggests that at least locally an
additional 2 to 4 inches of rain may occur over the next few
hours. This may yield a few instances of flash flooding which will
include at least some urban flash flooding concerns locally.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6fxuwszYhOv027rX9XH-qZ8utvKjbk4if318hQL8mJYHeqEM9OST7wc45_eMgWLLLhxY= zeF3c-S42_IyjBPkNPt5Ohw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41528000 41497881 40847834 40227887 40028043=20
39978192 40078277 40468279 40898139=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050441
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0560
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Far Northern AR...South-Central and Southeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050440Z - 050900Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms impacting portions
of far northern AR and into south-central and southeast MO over
the next few hours are expected to maintain a threat of flash
flooding given very heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows clusters
of very cold-topped convection (-70 to -75C) over far northern AR
and southern MO gradually lifting off to the northeast as a wave
of low pressure advances northeast up along a quasi-stationary
front. A substantial pool of instability is noted along and just
to the southeast of this front with as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE in place.

Moisture flux convergence magnitudes are rather strong in close
proximity to the low center and this has been a major reason for
the level of convective organization currently seen in both radar
and satellite imagery. Right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics
overhead are also facilitating deeper layer ascent, and this
coupled with the favorable pool of thermodynamics along the front
should help sustain a southwest to northeast focus of convection
overnight that will continue to impact areas of south-central to
southeast MO in particular.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger storms have already been
observed in the 2.0 to 2.5 inch/hour range, and with relatively
slow cell-motions and some occasional instances of cell-training,
some storm totals overnight may reach 3 to 4 inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible with these
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms, and especially if
these cells can overlap with any areas that have seen a moistening
of soil conditions due to recent heavy rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9eF_rXSZ_5--BvozTVkWqd_ultjdis_Pi8Qum8q5W44ddH6uDOsRAe1hAv95V00gmavX= 1G5s7Pv5Zrjc6O862pG4mns$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38269129 38179018 37598955 36758983 36259096=20
36329280 37229320 37899273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050556
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-051155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050555Z - 051155Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
continue to grow a bit more in coverage over the next few hours.
Given slow cell-motions and heavy rainfall rates, some instances
of flash flooding will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
eastern NM to the north of a quasi-stationary front.

The activity is developing in response to strengthening easterly
low-level flow which is yielding stronger moisture convergence and
localized upslope flow near some of the higher terrain. A narrow
corridor of instability is also seen north of the front with
MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 J/kg.

Over the next few hours, a combination of relatively divergent
flow aloft and the pool of moisture and instability transport may
yield some expansion of the convection off to the north and east.
This may include some portions of the east-facing slopes of the
Sangre De Cristo mountains and eventually could include areas of
the TX Panhandle north of the front where convection over eastern
NM may organize enough to propagate east into the moist/unstable
low-level flow over the open southern High Plains.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger storms may reach 1 to 2
inches/hour, and given slow cell-motions in general with the
activity, some storm totals by dawn may reach 2 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts possible. Thus, some instances of flash
flooding may occur with these areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!78z4HrunpQ8L24M2K0vB58rcKd59eScTPNMEgok9clI-LtknGY6LQA5-gW05qojx98pl= L5-qzGJowh-OgZkNdef6pKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36500391 36350297 35500137 34320150 33910246=20
34170445 34310511 34680552 35180554 35850526=20
36360470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050756
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-051155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0562
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern MO and South-Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050755Z - 051155Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some localized
cell-training concerns may result in some areas of flash flooding
going through dawn this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a band of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of eastern MO just to the
southwest of the St. Louis metropolitan area. This activity is
associated with a broader complex of convection that is impacting
the middle MS Valley as a wave of low pressure advances northeast
along a quasi-stationary front.

There continues to be a fair amount of instability pooled along
the front with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg nosed up across
southeast MO and far southern IL. A relatively strong corridor of
moisture convergence is noted along the front and just ahead of
the wave of low pressure, and this coupled with the instability
and proximity of right-entrance region upper-jet forcing should
still favor some convective sustenance over the next few hours
going through dawn.

This should allow for some bands of convection near and just
southwest of St. Louis to continue to advance off to the northeast
and gradually get into areas of south-central IL. Rainfall rates
with the stronger storms may reach as high as 1.5 to 2
inches/hour, and some additional totals going through dawn may
reach 2 to 4 inches given some cell-training occurs.

Some of these rains will be falling over areas that already have moist/sensitive soil conditions and elevated streamflows from
heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, and thus these additional
rains may cause some areas of flash flooding over the next few
hours. This will include some urban flash flooding concerns as
well around the St. Louis vicinity and especially the adjacent
southern and eastern suburbs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RvdWJM1L9G0uhGnDE_K3Eo2sd8-Fu8897WJfeGCQFO9HeXN6ZFtkPdY2gWtmqdEtvFu= pMffIJxwy39hoi-l3T8oiKA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39358922 39228845 38798839 38388901 38059022=20
38189111 38689095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-051505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0563
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into West-Central and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050905Z - 051505Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to broken areas of convection will continue
this morning across areas of the TX Panhandle down into
west-central and southwest OK. Sufficiently high enough rainfall
rates coupled with slow cell-motions may foster at least localized
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows broken areas of
cold-topped convection over areas of the TX Panhandle with the
activity tending to expand further in coverage off to the east
into areas of west-central to southwest OK.

The activity is focused along an instability gradient north of a
stationary front focused across areas of western and northern TX.
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg are in place and there is=20
relatively divergent flow aloft working in tandem with a corridor
of stronger low-level moisture convergence to help facilitate the
development and expansion of the convection.

Some additional increase in the concentration of convection may
occur from the TX Panhandle down into southwest OK going through
the mid-morning hours, and the cell-motions are expected to be
rather slow which will favor some potential for locally excessive
rainfall totals.

The PWs are running about 2 standard deviations above normal over
the region, and rainfall rates are expected to locally reach 1 to
2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The 00Z/06Z HREF guidance
favors some spotty totals going through mid-morning of 2 to 4
inches and this may result in a localized concerns for some flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!51j4lHgbsNusoVeIz7_d3kf5YWAkWSXmoHCTdJw1RT4IPFpa7Zi2UCAt5ij0dfoPj-Bf= G_4SDtbL3Eq7qst6cGrOrzE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36380063 36199964 35599819 34699799 34239887=20
34430077 34880216 35380274 35810283 36370216=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051733
FFGMPD
WIZ000-052302-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0564
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Northeast WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051732Z - 052302Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding is underway across
portions of Waupaca County in northeast Wisconsin. Additional slow
moving cells with 2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates will likely lead to
additional instances of isolated flash flooding through the
afternoon, some of which could be significant.

Discussion...Radar and IR imagery continue to track an area of low
topped and efficient showers and thunderstorms beneath a
vertically stacked low center. Earlier, a small but slow moving
groups of cells over Manawa, WI with 2-3"/hr rain rates exhibited
backbuilding and produced an estimated 5-6" of rain, prompting
numerous water rescues and a Flash Flood Emergency for the town.
While that cluster has since moved east, additional cellular
development downstream of the initial activity was producing
1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates and elevated CREST Streamflow responses
east of Manawa.

This uptick in activity likely remains tied to increased forcing
for ascent as a well-defined vorticity max rounds the base of the
larger closed low, in the presence of focused frontal convergence
and strong surface heating. Recent mesoanalysis estimates show
upwards of 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (oriented in a skinny profile with
.1 NCAPE) and 1.3" PWATS (above the 75th percentile) in the
vicinity of the convection. Combined with 5-10 kts of steering
flow beneath the close low, efficient slow moving cells are likely
to continue through this afternoon with 2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates
possible per recent HREF guidance.

Through this afternoon, localized rainfall amounts of 2-4" remain
possible where these clusters reside the longest. This will likely
lead to additional isolated instances of flash flooding as 1 HR
FFGs are quite low in the region in light of recent heavy rainfall
(.75-1"/hr). Additional localized significant flash flooding over
more vulnerable urban areas including Green Bay can not be ruled
out.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6imnR0dvKWybQqRf0Ya2OHPLmmk8e33IETbnm-j3VHHQ801o5_eqHNJZOJWpYK-sPt0k= CBxp9YAwXX_wk6bf4QzQ2B0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45258878 44868781 44268761 43768782 43578824=20
43758957 44239008 44878988=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051938
FFGMPD
NMZ000-060036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0565
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051936Z - 060036Z

Summary...Convection initiation is underway along portions of the
Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico. Slow storm motions (5-10 kts)
and rainfall rates upwards of 1-2"/hr could lead to burn scar
flooding this afternoon--some of which could be significant near
the Blue 2, South Fork, and Salt burn scars.

Discussion...Day Cloud Phase RGB and experimental LightningCast
data highlight developing thunderstorms atop portions of the
Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo Mountains over the last hour.=20
While the developing storms are somewhat isolated for now, strong
surface heating combined with persistent post-frontal upslope flow
and a weak shortwave to the northwest are expected to yield
additional thunderstorms over the next several hours along the
terrain. Current mesoanalysis estimates already depict a favorable
environment for thunderstorm development in the presence of the
aforementioned forcing, including 2000-3000 J/kg of uncapped
SBCAPE and 0.9-1" PWATS nosing into the terrain. Shear profiles
are currently weak, but the approach of the shortwave will
strengthen effective shear profiles briefly to 20-30 kts over the
next several hours to support some convective organization and
longevity. However, dry air noted on the low-level moisture
channel imagery may limit more robust rainfall potential as storms
could develop strong cold pools and forward propagate.=20=20

Even so, as these storms mature rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr and
initial storm motions around 10 kts could support some isolated
instances of flash flooding with 1 hour FFGs around .75-1"/hr. The
threat for significant flash flooding impacts will remain confined
to vulnerable burn scars in the region, including the Blue 2,
South Fork, and Salt burn scars in the Sacramento mountains.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5KO4WkKI4S79j5A2-_3NvE4fCPM_ioA6GReQll6Pj6XWrqoKYJkmmjVwHWzX_9iyS9de= muGn6iiQ69wGRWg8aWCnCAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36860423 35830390 33910435 32820448 32330495=20
32330542 32490592 33200598 34680554 35920550=20
36760523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052017
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0566
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Western Virginia and North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052016Z - 060000Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely as pre-frontal and slow-moving
storms produce rates to 3 inches per hour. Isolated instances of
significant flash flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection that has developed across the
Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina has been producing
rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour over the areas they have been
forming. The storms that have formed over the mountain communities
of NC have a history of causing street flooding in poor drainage
areas. PWATs are up around 2 inches in the area, indicating an air
mass with plentiful moisture. The atmosphere is uncapped, with
CAPE values up to 2,000 J/kg in place. Given the local
sensitivities to flash flooding, these parameters, while far from off-the-charts, have been enough to produce flooding producing
rainfall. With little in the path of these storms that would
suggest meaningful weakening of the storms as they progress
eastward into the Piedmont, expect continued widely scattered
instances of flash flooding with isolated significant flash
flooding possible.

CAMs guidance has been very poor with the convective evolution so
far. Much of the guidance, if there is convection at all, shows it
as a line that quickly crosses the area with only isolated
convection out ahead of the main line. However, the evolution of
the convection so far has been much more widespread, indicating
much better ability for the storms to develop and produce heavy
rainfall. Thus, much of the guidance has been discounted, in favor
of a continuity approach into the evening suggesting continued
convective development out ahead of the line. The front has been a
clear demarcation of the ending of any significant rainfall, and
expect that to continue to be the case as well.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QSW1h9iRPq0miPDRxyBtE8j0SEOdatBSHrt2C4_BsQ1pD_hUPjEEKRsqnIC-_FEpSqr= aBTxuYYQdlOXVxXR04blug8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38997922 38457851 37517858 36487883 35447970=20
34848093 34998251 35738239 36878155 38198078=20
38578009=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052113
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0567
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi & Alabama & Eastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052111Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...Storms that have developed ahead of a cold front are
nearly stationary, and have been producing rain rates over 3
inches per hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Several areas of storms that have developed this
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast have been merging into
larger complexes. These storms have a history of producing
rainfall rates over 3 inches per hour, due to abundant atmospheric
moisture with PWATs over 2.5 inches from SPC mesoanalysis. SBCAPE
values are peaking near 5,000 J/kg over coastal Mississippi. These
very favorable atmospheric conditions suggest continued
maintenance of the ongoing convection. Since this main complex of
storms is well out ahead of a southward moving cold front
approaching the LA/AR border, they will have plenty of time to
remain in place and potentially cause flash flooding over the
impacted areas. FFGs in this area are very high, generally at or
above 3 inches per hour and 4 inches per 3-hours. Thus, only the
strongest and most stationary storms will be strong enough to
produce flash flooding. However, given the aforementioned near
record atmospheric moisture in place for these storms to feed
on...these rates of rainfall are possible. Thus, flash flooding is
possible.

CAMs guidance has been handling the convective evolution in this
area fairly well, and suggests that the storms generally along the
line that follows the east-west-oriented LA/MS border will
gradually creep southward, and may impact Mobile and New Orleans
over the coming hours. Significant flash flooding would be
possible should 3 inch per hour rates occur over those respective
metros. Additional storms associated with the cold front may form
in areas hit with the current convection north of the primary line
over south-central MS and northern LA, which may also result in an
isolated flash flooding threat. With loss of daytime heating this
evening, the convective coverage and intensity should wane,
resulting in a lessening threat for flash flooding.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5N2bJ8_eWvK3u_SoEGVC59uAcv-BB-Ae0E71s1ClOPXTSmi1Xg6xnuBR7XJUUVTlQdSS= 3W2NJkcEjCt1rPKxfcewx0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32379243 32179014 32188880 31978810 31868751=20
31398731 30618759 30438854 29859005 29979140=20
30369272 31449277=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052157
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-060056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052156Z - 060056Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms that have a history of
producing 3 inch/hour rainfall rates move over a portion of
western West Virginia with FFGs as low as 1.5 in/hour.

DISCUSSION...A small but very potent slow moving line of storms
has developed along the Ohio River between Ohio and West Virginia
ahead of an upper level shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms have been growing upscale but will be moving into an
area hit by some storms as recently as yesterday. PWATs ahead of
the storms are as high as 2 inches with SBCAPE as high as 2,500
J/kg. Thus, all of the ingredients are in place for the storms to
remain strong as they track northeast up the Ohio River.

While CAMs seem to have the storms resolved in the right place,
they are not doing well with the storm motion...as recent radar
imagery shows they're generally moving northeast along the Ohio
River, rather than east into West Virginia as most of the CAMs
guidance shows. Expect they will maintain themselves for the next
few hours as all the ingredients necessary for the storms'
maintenance remain in place along their track. Later this evening,
loss of daytime heating should result in the storms' weakening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ehYyHTWCd2h603J-7IFWd_18sI7r9d4MzoeMYBJSPFk_oBzDwFvCBSMBWdfrpW5d70D= o36cNYK2Asrd1yUAdM5hyrU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39918083 39538063 39108099 38498164 38538236=20
39808143=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052201
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Corrected for Headline- Areas Affected

Areas affected...Western West Virginia & Southeast Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052159Z - 060100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms that have a history of
producing 3 inch/hour rainfall rates move over a portion of
western West Virginia with FFGs as low as 1.5 in/hour.

DISCUSSION...A small but very potent slow moving line of storms
has developed along the Ohio River between Ohio and West Virginia
ahead of an upper level shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms have been growing upscale but will be moving into an
area hit by some storms as recently as yesterday. PWATs ahead of
the storms are as high as 2 inches with SBCAPE as high as 2,500
J/kg. Thus, all of the ingredients are in place for the storms to
remain strong as they track northeast up the Ohio River.

While CAMs seem to have the storms resolved in the right place,
they are not doing well with the storm motion...as recent radar
imagery shows they're generally moving northeast along the Ohio
River, rather than east into West Virginia as most of the CAMs
guidance shows. Expect they will maintain themselves for the next
few hours as all the ingredients necessary for the storms'
maintenance remain in place along their track. Later this evening,
loss of daytime heating should result in the storms' weakening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PS_Zyq6BD8wSirlsZWOEDQKnrzFdy-ok8TAdt7STElI_mBlzpH6bM7LDrA_3qUpu5RQ= KdmFjV4zex7YKJU7_WEJ8jo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39918083 39538063 39108099 38498164 38538236=20
39808143=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052351
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052350Z - 060300Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms that have developed over portions of
southern New England are producing rainfall rates approaching 3
inches per hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving storms have developed along a
trough/dying front located over central Massachusetts this
evening. With south to southwesterly flow advecting plentiful
atmospheric moisture into southern New England, the storms are
expected to maintain their intensity over the next few hours.
PWATs over 2 inches and SBCAPE values around 2,000 J/kg over
Massachusetts are over 2.5 sigma above normal for this time of
year for PWATs and over the 90th percentile in the climatology.
The storms further south into western Connecticut have also been
slow moving and could pose a flash flooding threat with rates over
2 inches per hour noted by both the Boston and Upton radars. This
is nearing the hourly FFG of 2-2.5 inches across Litchfield
County.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms currently moving over the New
York City metro will overtake the storms in western Connecticut as
they move towards the northeast along the trough. This should
allow overall movement of the heaviest rainfall rates to begin
over the next hour or 2. However, the boundary the storms across
Massachusetts have formed along is very slow-moving and is not
expected to move much over the next few hours. This could allow
training convection to develop as noted in the 22Z HRRR.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9w54OUhYdGrsM2vr2VhS19cwns94jb3bVDrZp1EiLu23R-qyTJZa0P_Ha2o55vpZEbHS= z4vEjfMBguWtA9NXDCZ6gYA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 43267075 42747087 42167138 41637202 41287316=20
41407407 41887356 42227284 42627227 42877182=20
43217138=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060037
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0570
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060036Z - 060500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding threat continues across eastern
New Mexico and far west Texas as storms redevelop along the dry
line.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms causing rainfall rates
as high as 2 inches per hour continue to redevelop across eastern
New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. The storms have
largely produced flash flooding through the afternoon where they
happened to form or move over preexisting burn scars. With
instability across New Mexico exceeding 2,000 J/kg in some places
with PWATs around 1 inch, the storms have proven capable of those
very high rainfall rates considering the desert environment of
eastern New Mexico.

CAMs guidance that depicts some of the convection (though none
show the much more scattered nature of the storms as much as are
ongoing at the present time) suggest the storms will begin to
merge with each other, particularly the cluster over east central
NM over the next few hours. Cell mergers could very well prolong
the heavy rainfall rates over the area where the storms merge,
resulting in a localized flash flooding threat, which may be
significant depending on the land characteristics under the
storms. Elsewhere, the storms continue to threaten recent burn
scars which alone greatly increase the potential for flash
flooding locally. The guidance has a poor handling on the storms
in far west Texas just east of El Paso, but with rates in the
stronger cells approaching 1.5 inches per hour, and FFGs in
southern Hudspeth County around that level, continued southward
movement of the stronger storms could pose a flash flooding threat
near the Rio Grande and I-10 in that area as well over the next
few hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4aGekqsaoUNKC-Ll78avVyiRx2GVckvpMgO7CRa5Z0NUhNSk-PI075sVID6UVoc-Q5pJ= kh6-R6XipFMM4tc-lWMjShE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37250438 37170358 36270334 35050340 33160398=20
32070452 31290520 31020557 31690640 32080629=20
32230619 32400592 33470558 34880543 36220501=20
37080491=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060143
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0571
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Much of Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060141Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...Local rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour continue
across much of Louisiana into this evening. Flash flooding is
possible, particularly in urban areas.

DISCUSSION...Numerous cells of convection are ongoing across much
of Louisiana and southwest Mississippi this evening. PWATs remain
incredibly high...with SPC Mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2.6
inches over Alexandria and 2.5 inches across much of the rest of
central Louisiana. Instability thus also remains high with SBCAPE
values in the pre-convective environment in southwest Louisiana
above 3,000 J/kg. Thus, with plenty of moisture and instability
available as well as an approaching cold front moving across
northern Louisiana...all the primary ingredients for continued
storm maintenance, despite the rapid loss of diurnal heating,
remain present. 850 mb flow is meager, less than 10 kt, as is the
surface southerly flow of moisture off the Gulf. Thus, there's
nothing either adding or removing moisture from the thunderstorms. Regardless...given the near record amounts of atmospheric moisture
present for the storms to work with...most of the strongest ones
don't need an additional supply.

The storms have been moving generally southward...if
chaotically...over the past few hours. This is likely in response
to them "following the instability". However, the storms to the
north which would otherwise be cut off from the best instability
are maintaining themselves, especially during cell mergers...with
local rates across northern Louisiana still reaching up to 3
inches per hour. Thus, expect continued slow motion of the
heaviest convection to the south towards the Gulf, which is well
depicted in much of the CAMs guidance. FFGs are very high,
generally above 3 inches per hour, so flash flooding remains
possible as despite the locally high rainfall rates, their
occurrences have been very widely scattered.

Convection should begin dissipating from north to south as the
storms both exhaust the available atmospheric moisture and the
cold front dries everything out. All but widely scattered
convection should remain by around 06Z/1am CDT based on the latest
CAMs guidance.

The greatest threat for flash flooding continues to be where local
FFGs are lowered...i.e. urban areas. Thus, areas such as New
Orleans, Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and eventually Lake Charles may
have a locally increased flash flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58-logYKDLr7cVXc_Npq-_jbAT16C13RyhorxNcFg263dEw0GJoiNvhbS4NMy47r1GMD= n2xJ-7vtg2UcWN0IyMsuvTY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32089336 32079210 31959160 31609056 30519030=20
30348980 30028957 29379029 29819388 30899418=20
31719410=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060621
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060620Z - 061030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping over
portions of northeast NM may pose a localized threat for some
additional flash flooding concerns overnight.

DISCUSSION...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have
been tending to redevelop and expand in coverage parts of
northeast NM over the last hour, and some additional increase in
the coverage of convection is expected over the next few hours.

Moist and convergent low-level southeast flow into northeast NM
and including the favored upslope areas of the Sangre De Cristo
mountains will combine with as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
to foster this threat. Additionally, there is some subtle evidence
of weak vort energy aloft in the mid to upper-level northwest flow
over the region which may also provide some modest deeper layer
ascent.

Expect rainfall rates to locally reach 1 to 2 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and with slow cell-motions and some of the
convection tending to be anchored close to the higher terrain,
there may be a couple of spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals over
the next few hours. Overall the convection is expected to
gradually expand a bit more in coverage off to the south and east
based on the 00Z HREF guidance.

Given the higher rainfall rates and potential for heavier totals,
there may be a localized threat for flash flooding, and this may
include some of the burn scar locations in the Sangre De Cristo
mountains.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Iw84aVkZpelb_aKYfI2UC23fkEfYGF1IsuyDmdRDdJBh7WdTAFIHlIKykhFHmVDv4-e= 8zWusl9CjhskA3CsOdxNP_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37150388 36610299 35490315 34920380 34900476=20
35210525 35720533 36370507 36920463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060808
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060805Z - 061300Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding
in coverage over northeast PA may pose some localized flash
flooding concerns early this morning as this activity advances off
to the northeast across southeast NY, northern NJ and eventually
areas of southern New England.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cluster of cooling convective tops associated with expanding areas
of showers and thunderstorms across northeast PA. This is being
facilitated by the arrival of a weak MCV crossing the northern
Mid-Atlantic region and interaction with a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass.

Generally the greatest instability is situated over southeast PA,
but there is a nose of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg nosed up
across northeast PA and into southeast NY and adjacent areas of
southern New England. Meanwhile, PWs are on the order of 1.8 to
2.2 inches based on some of the recent GPS-derived PW data and the
NESDIS Blended TPW product.

A combination of subtle vort energy/forcing with the MCV along
with some modest orographic ascent/upslope flow in vicinity of the
Poconos and the corridor of moderately strong thermodynamics will
likely favor the current cluster of convection maintaining itself
as it advances off to the northeast over the next few hours.
Gradually some of this convection will cross through areas of
southeast NY and some portions of southern New England going
through the early morning hours.

Rainfall rates may reach upwards of 1.5"/hour and there may be
some localized storm totals of 2 to 3 inches where any of the
cells repeat over the same area. A localized concern for some
flash flooding will exist as these storms cross the region early
this morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5QZPeMz9nsj2otI6WOgJW7rShnuRCSGM6UlqRuL9J3MxdIZ3lP2Bz48bMHkATsz65v0E= jVfmFGnMMUMMf-tnxw5M0zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42687359 42557279 42047254 41297346 40857464=20
40987545 41457565 42127490=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061711
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0574
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Interior Northeast...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061710Z - 062259Z

Summary...Recent satellite imagery depicts scattered linear
thunderstorm segments redeveloping ahead of a diffuse cold front
and lee-trough in New England. Repeating and localized training of
this activity may support isolated flash flooding through the next
several hours.

Discussion...17Z surface analysis shows a diffuse cold front and
lee-side trough advancing into New England on the leading edge of
a mid-level vorticity max over Southern Ontario. Ahead of these
features, signs of new cellular development are underway per
recent regional radar and visible satellite trends. The
environment across the region remains extremely moist (1.6-1.9"
PWATS), with modest instability (approaching 1000-2000 J/kg) noted
amid low-level southerly flow and scattered insolation. This round
of cells have been slow to develop, likely due to poor lapse-rates
and weak convergence along the surface boundaries.

However, with time an anticyclonically curved jet-streak is
forecast to strengthen over Quebec which will encourage more
development along the slow moving front and lee-trough with
additional heating. Given unidirectional effective shear profiles
oriented parallel to a portion of the front, storms will exhibit
periods of training and repeating with 1-1.75"/hr rainfall rates
possible. This supports a risk of isolated flash flooding as 1-3
hr FFGs are quite low in the region, in the 1-1.5" range. Portions
of northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will be more
susceptible to additional isolated impacts this afternoon in light
of the moderate to heavy rainfall earlier this morning.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Fw-Q4PRQpBqkH6wxiSXF7xfM3T40Da2uf4dGG-qgAjPMHdTT25ibwedDOMAKFAgRPY1= _cMNJwkJVVBZxjbT_7BluNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 47496923 47116799 45546823 44067070 42107253=20
42527407 44217358 44977271 45707075=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061835
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061834Z - 070000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms are developing along a stationary
boundary across southeast Texas. Urban and small stream flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Slow moving storms have developed along a stationary
boundary across southeast Texas this afternoon. The boundary is
acting as a focusing mechanism for the storms, as 10 kt
southeasterly flow at the surface advects deep tropical moisture
into the boundary. Without much other forcing in the area, the
storms have been taking advantage of PWATs of 2.2 inches as
depicted in SPC Mesoanalysis and SBCAPE values up to 4,000 J/kg to
produce very heavy rainfall in the area. Rainfall rates with the
storms south and southwest of Beaumont have been approaching 2
inches per hour. Storm motions are slow...with the biggest storms
moving the fastest towards the west at 10-15 mph...while the
smaller cells have been mostly stationary.

CAMs guidance is in fair agreement noting the developing
convection in southeast Texas. The continued slow westward motion
is in good agreement, whereas the evolution more towards the north
inland into Texas or more south towards Victoria is still
uncertain. Since the strongest cells have been developing where
the stationary boundary is closest to the coast (the Beaumont
area)...it seems more probable that storm development will be tied
in at least some way to the moisture influx off the Gulf.
Thus...leaning towards those solutions that bring more convection
southwestward along the coast with time.

Later this afternoon, the approach of the wind field of T.S. Beryl
will turn the prevailing flow in the Gulf towards the
northeast...resulting in a rapid diminishing of the convective
coverage in much of the CAMs guidance while also driving the
convection west along I-10. Increasing distance from the Gulf and
a faster westward motion will diminish the flash flooding threat.

Urban and small stream flash flooding will be the greatest threat
with these storms in and around the Houston area.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_u3sHP3yZuYwggfZcCZgxsWLoSrOaf-PnwBZZXvkZJnytnRm3Hb-dLwva07FovrY_abv= tpTRUNHjAAl36QzIPEUqvcw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30439498 30349379 30099367 29879368 29759371=20
29549423 29079500 28569586 28199648 28769715=20
29849710 30309633=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061840
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Central AL...Central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061839Z - 070039Z

Summary...Thunderstorm coverage is rapidly expanding along and
behind a weak cold front across the Southeast. Very slow storm
motions (5-10 kts) combined with 2-3"/hr rainfall rates in the
most intense cells along the front will support some flash
flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and IR imagery depict a focused corridor of
rapid thunderstorm development along a weak cold front which has
stalled across the Southeast. The most intense of these cells were
nearly stationary halfway between a KBMX to KFFC line, with
dual-pol and MRMS hourly rainfall estimates highlighting 2-2.5"/hr
rainfall rates with this activity.

The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of the front remains
very conducive for heavy rainfall, with 2.2-2.4" PWATs, 3000-4000
J/kg MUCAPE, and 5-10 kts of southwesterly 850-300 mb mean flow
noted per recent GPS and mesoanalysis trends. With the front
forecast to remain stalled and steering flow parallel to the
boundary, these slow moving and training cells will continue
through the afternoon. The 12z HREF maintains high (50-60%)
probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches along the front
through 0Z tonight, with individual members showing 5-6". Although
soil saturation percentiles are near normal and FFGs are high
across the region, a few instances of flash flooding appear
possible given the overall efficiency and prolonged residence
times of these cells.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zzGbcTjjwxLJBu_b071zRdWk7AOuAVl2iVNmYPz5plLsq3HDCs-BAodAfgGqQCEsC1I= Fdnuin9QOJKe0t736I_vWMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34768295 34168252 32808342 32138532 31808737=20
32118849 33078741 33738590 34088410=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061947
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and South
Central North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061947Z - 070130Z

SUMMARY...Convection developing across the Carolinas and Georgia
may cause flash flooding as rainfall rates approach 3 inches per
hour.

DISCUSSION...An approaching slow-moving cold front with some
meager right entrance region support from a jet streak over the
Ohio Valley is providing the forcing for widespread convective
initiation across the Southeast this afternoon. The strongest
storms just south and southeast of Columbia, SC have produced
rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour. SPC mesoanalysis shows
PWATs as high as 2.4 inches across east central Georgia, with
SBCAPE values over 4,000 J/kg across coastal Georgia and far
southern South Carolina. Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold
front is drawing that abundant moisture and instability northeast
into the front...albeit slowly. The result has been storms all
across the Southeast that have been easily able to exceed 2 inches
per hour rates, while also moving, merging, and organizing very slowly...lengthening the amount of time any one area is subject to
heavy rainfall.

Soil moisture conditions have been very dry across this area in
recent weeks, with very low river levels. While this is certainly
better than the alternative...areas where there are more clay
soils become more hydrophobic when they're very dry, which
initially supports increased runoff from the heavier rains.
Thus...urban and small stream flooding are the primary threats
today across this area...whereas those communities that see
lighter rainfall will be largely very beneficial. Thus...flash
flooding appears only possible in the areas that see extended
heavy rainfall.

CAMs guidance has certainly been slow with developing the
convection, with none of them having a good handle on what has
developed so far. With the continued advance of the cold front
towards the southeast...the front will become increasingly
important for helping the storms organize into a line where
training and backbuilding become increasingly common. While this
is more likely in northern and western portions of the highlighted
area (NC/SC)...storms capable of heavy rainfall are expected to
continue area-wide through the afternoon.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SqrWHeM1afdgyW4tQ7atJ2yFbXhC8IogPpleuuGmfymEaSoO4Eq0JEgj-ewiVxQtrB7= -RXW_Siq3CkyuyUS6wLy9ps$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35718002 35657942 35227866 33837970 32878058=20
31638144 30988248 31408297 31748294 31948324=20
32008345 32338347 33158291 34338230 35398082=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062305
FFGMPD
TXZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0578
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062304Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...Clashing gust fronts associated with 2 separate areas of
convection may cause flash flooding as rates approach 3 inches per
hour at times.

DISCUSSION...Gust fronts associated with 2 separate areas of
convection...one in central Texas, and the other moving WSW
parallel to the coast are likely to clash over the next hour or 2.
With PWATs in the area still above 2 inches and SBCAPE values
between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg, expect additional convection to
interact around and east of San Antonio into the evening hours.
The convection with both areas of storms have had peak rainfall
rates exceed 3 inches per hour...though most of the convection has
supported radar estimated rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour.
The clashing gust fronts may make for an area of slow-moving or
stationary convection...which may gradually drift west with time
as T.S. Beryl's increasing influence supports the storms moving
west down I-10 towards San Antonio.

While soil moisture analyses from NASA Sport indicated soils
around Austin and San Antonio and points east have been dry
lately, with about average soil moisture levels for this time of
year...the prevalence of highly efficient warm rain processes
within the ongoing convection may exceed local FFGs, resulting in
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding. Any convection that
impacts San Antonio proper may cause urban flash flooding, while
outside of the cities, small stream and minor flash flooding is
possible into the evening hours.

CAMs guidance suggest the storms will maintain themselves as they
collide through about 03Z/10pm CDT, with the most likely area of
flash flooding expected between the 2 areas of storms generally
between I-10 and I-35 south and east of Austin and San Antonio.
Ongoing individual cell interactions within the broader areas of
storms will continue to cause localized flash flooding north and
west of San Antonio towards San Angelo.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8mkVg11yq00QuHg4jEEIM6PHPDtxrQWK4QC2Gr1XVw1s5L6bw9JoeVu3kvkF44kVnP0D= 2QOyAjDsnTUwewxHCwf7ePQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31199834 30989731 30339667 28829675 28959855=20
29669992 30840001=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-070400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0579
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia and West Central South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070054Z - 070400Z

SUMMARY...Locally significant flash flooding possible with
scattered instances of flash flooding likely with rainfall rates
as high as 4 inches per hour possible.

DISCUSSION... A cold front advancing from the west across north
Georgia and a strong sea breeze front advancing east are colliding
across east central Georgia and west central South Carolina this
evening. The storms that have formed in that area have a history
of producing rainfall rates to 4 inches per hour, causing numerous
instances of flash flooding. PWATs in this area have increased to
a very impressive 2.6 inches, with MUCAPE values decreasing but
still betweeen 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg from SPC Mesoanalysis. The
abundance of atmospheric moisture has and will continue to support
the storms as mergers, outflow boundaries and other mesoscale
forcings allow continuous convective redevelopment in the area.

With the loss of solar heating, the storm coverage and intensity
should slowly wane as indicated by the decreasing values of
instability. However, since the storms have been very slow moving
towards the east, and occasionally moving erratically based on
local forcings such as outflow boundaries, they will continue to
be a flash flooding threat for the next few hours until they
dissipate. CAMs guidance all agrees that the storms will dissipate
by no later than 04Z/Midnight...but none of the guidance has
nearly the convective coverage depicted as is actually
occurring...so expect the storms to likely outlast their simulated
counterparts in the CAMs.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n8RS7CtRuLCfCTbNT5Pbo_IRWqBOkhavK_j4v6aCdZNDJh2uJWxOAlQvkegox5Q96FS= riYYYbFJW8XZKbnbkb0HUJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33688233 33658176 33588144 33288094 32438124=20
31878183 31888197 32028226 32008260 31948284=20
31848296 31938312 32138344 32428315 32468277=20
32778265 33148275 33338283 33548260=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070404
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-071003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Far Northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070403Z - 071003Z

SUMMARY...Localized training and backbuilding of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across portions of southwest
KS which could eventually edge into far northwest OK toward dawn.
Some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The late-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows areas of locally training and
backbuilding showers and thunderstorms across portions of
southwest KS. Occasional overshooting top activity and cloud top
temperatures to about -65C have been witnessed over the last
couple of hours as the overall convective mass tends to lose some
additional latitude with an outflow boundary settling farther
south ahead of the convection.

There is a rather strong southerly low-level jet of 40+ kts
overrunning the outflow boundary, and the transport of relatively
moist and unstable air up over top of the cold pool is favoring
the persistence of the broken northwest to southeast oriented
bands of convection. MUCAPE values are on the order of about 500
to 1000 J/kg, but there is rather strong level of kinematic energy
aloft with enhanced shear helping to favor stronger and persistent
updrafts despite the relatively modest instability parameters.

GOES-E IR/WV imagery shows a shortwave trough dropping southeast
toward the central Rockies and High Plains which should favor the
arrival of some stronger upper-level jet dynamics overnight, and
this coupled with proximity of a wave of low pressure and a
frontal zone also should favor areas of convection that will tend
to redevelop and continue to locally backbuild and train over the
same area. The low-level jet also will likely tend to increase a
bit more over top of the existing cold pool and may reach as high
as 50 kts by 06Z. All of this will favor convection that should
remain fairly well organized and capable of producing heavy
rainfall rates.

The PWs are locally near 1.25 inches, and the rainfall rates
should continue to reach 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
storms. This is supported by the 00Z HREF guidance, and some
additional storm totals by later tonight may reach 3 to 4 inches.

Generally the heaviest rains should focus over southwest KS, but
it is possible that the cold pool may tend to focus far enough
south to bring convection into far northwest OK toward dawn. Some
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible where these
heavier rains focus.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Pd4C1Mlfn5T9X47ocp7UXlTavne4d1hdFyXjwF_83Wc7VaaUoKK5iLDhykjQAMzwgi4= 043hjr-FmIkPIbCcSWL-hFY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38670083 38439996 37759865 37139843 36829886=20
36789967 37050088 37600161 38190172 38570149=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070849
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Northwest to Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070845Z - 071400Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to locally backbuild and train over the same area going
into the early morning hours. Some additional expansion and
increase in the threat of flash flooding is expected over the next
few hours, with the greatest concerns continuing over southwest
KS, but with the threat increasing over northwest OK.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery continues to show multiple bands of
locally backbuilding and training showers and thunderstorms, with
the activity impacting southwest KS down through northwest OK. The
leading edge of the convection has been tending to bow off to the
southeast in a more progressive nature and is beginning to edge
into central OK. However, with exception of this leading
convective bow situated in between KEND and KJWG, much of the
trailing convection is elevated and has been concentrated in a northwest/southeast fashion over top of a well-defined cold pool
with a strong low-level jet interacting with it.

This southerly low-level jet is locally on the order of 40 to 50
kts and is favoring enhanced isentropic ascent along with rather
strong moisture transport. MUCAPE values remain relatively modest
with values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg in vicinity of the cold pool, but
there continues to be the arrival of shortwave energy from the
central Rockies which is yielding deeper layer ascent/forcing to
help compensate for the lack of stronger thermodynamics.

Additional backbuilding and training of heavy showers and
thunderstorms can be expected going into the early morning hours,
and rainfall rates with the stronger storms will continue to be on
the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour. Some additional storm totals
going through the early morning will be 2 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts.

This will be on top of some areas that have already seen locally a
few inches of rain and corresponding flash flooding overnight.
Therefore, areas of flash flooding will be likely going through
the early morning hours, and especially over southwest KS.
However, the threat may expand and increase over areas of
northwest OK as cell-training concerns eventually shift from
southwest KS into northwest OK over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7WtsQWirFrio45gL99IST4oH0Cf093DFaH6p8r5Uuiv6hzYSzSVyGPqg_2W68lPkIk9B= zFcn3Kz0HuoIL46-yU4ngA8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38370107 38300032 38059980 37419895 36969809=20
36589740 36109704 35509745 35549868 36140005=20
36470065 36790118 37250177 37850188=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
OKZ000-071749-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071419Z - 071749Z

Summary...Training portion of an MCS continues over Central OK
this morning. The flash flood threat will continue with periods of
cell training containing rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr.

Discussion...Radar across Central OK depicts a training band of
thunderstorms south and east of the OKC Metro containing dual-pol
estimated rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.3"/hr. This activity
remains forced by a weakening--but still sufficient 15-25 kt
southerly low-level jet ascending a well defined cold pool on the
southern fringe of the MCS, alongside a shortwave over
West-Central OK. The 12z sounding out of OUN highlights plenty of
instability and moisture available to support efficient
convection, including 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, 1.83" PWATS, and highly
saturated profiles through ~600 mb. Ahead of the training
convection, recent mesoanalysis also shows slow Corfidi vectors
(10-15 kts) within a region of diffluent thickness, which suggests
lengthened residence times of these cells. Thus, this training
activity is expected to continue in the short term before the
shortwave passage and weakening LLJ diminish the activity and
allow for more forward propagation.

CAM guidance continues to initialize the ongoing activity poorly,
generally being too slow, displaced to the northeast, and
underdone with coverage. However, given the overall efficiency and
periods of training, additional rainfall amounts of 2-3" appear
reasonable through 17z across Central OK. This will continue to
support a threat of scattered flash flooding through at least the
next 3-4 hours.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7gYGau_xIw4VxBp3VBmB2XVTVL4WfmZJmbf3M_4NkBigVeu3raD79AN9dgtQM69oGv-q= dx-31MZYw5MYnbRHmK5AEtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36589718 36439639 35699610 34839678 34759761=20
35039807 35529817 36159788=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071832
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-080031-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0583
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071831Z - 080031Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expanding in coverage and
intensity across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast ahead
of a weak cold front. Slow storm motions and 2-3"/hr rainfall
could lead to a few instances of flash flooding, particularly with
any localized training/repeating.

Discussion...Surface analysis highlights a weak wavy cold front,
and lee troughing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. Along and ahead of the front, recent IR and radar
imagery depict expanding coverage and intensity of slow moving
thunderstorms with 5-10 kt storm motions estimated from RAX VWP.
Locally, a storm west of Raleigh with rapidly cooling cloud tops
briefly maintained 3"/hr rainfall rates per RAX earlier, leading
to elevated CREST Streamflows of 200-300 cfs/smi before weakening.

Unsurprisingly, the warm sector ahead of the front remains
supportive for periods of very heavy rainfall, as mesoanalysis
estimates show upwards of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 2.1-2.4" PWATS
entrenched across the region. Through the afternoon, weak
low-level convergence along the front will continue to drive slow
moving pulse thunderstorms with periods of 2-3"/hour rainfall
rates at times. Although the weak forcing and shear profiles will
ensure the heavy rainfall footprint is spotty in nature, the 12Z
HREF neighborhood probabilities show a high (45-60%) chance of 10
year ARI exceedences by 0Z tonight across the region, with some
signal (15-20%) of 100 year ARI exceedences noted. This suggests
locally very heavy rainfall (4-5") of rainfall is possible where
cells can locally train and repeat along the synoptic front,
future outflows, and the sea-breeze closer the coast. This could
lead to a few instances of flash flooding, with 1-3 HR FFGs of
2-4" noted across the region. Urban zones, and locations in
complex terrain along the Appalachians have a locally greater
chance of isolated flash flooding issues this afternoon.=20

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_heRJd9QpYiXLCzO0RZSCg8EdANzxEGjFCCrwtSaoNeBQol-VC29JDkScbNiaiuiPPH= PWlZA4yqSRLB7tUw2XiT7ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...MRX...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36948153 36668046 36437882 36517755 36657631=20
36007581 35117681 34848013 33908249 33918384=20
34228465 35158440 35828368 36358264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072118
FFGMPD
OKZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Central and Southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072117Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Training storms along I-40 in west central Oklahoma are
producing local rates approaching 3 inches per hour. Flash
flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...Training storms have developed along a stationary
boundary across west central Oklahoma this afternoon. Drier air
moving southward north of the front is colliding with much more
moist and unstable air streaming northward out of Texas. The
result is a stationary boundary where the 2 air masses are
clashing...resulting in training thunderstorms roughly right along
I-40 west of Oklahoma City.

While the storms are drifting eastward with time, CAMs guidance
despite poorly handling the ongoing convection suggest that the
storms will gradually shift southward with time, which is why
portions of southwest Oklahoma are included in the threat area.
Certainly short-term the threat is along I-40 from Elk City to
Oklahoma City, but expect the typical way storms evolve in this
environment is to "follow the instability, so they should
gradually begin to drift south with time. Further, the drier air
to the north should also begin to shift the frontal boundary south.

Urban and small stream flash flooding is the primary threat with
these storms, with the urban threat increasing should stronger
storms make their way into the Oklahoma City metro.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5smoaKGMIOljWnD8tztRBYizAc1LvHutXY17E8LhlJfCEkJzjHYVGOxQkevhrqBHieId= HZEQd6FEliyKSV3Ru7XSjLE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35719726 35629696 35339685 34729692 34409801=20
34499938 34989979 35669957 35699809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072351
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0585
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Western South Carolina and Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072350Z - 080530Z

SUMMARY...Storms colliding in an atmosphere with abundant moisture
and instability are likely to cause flash flooding, especially in
areas hard hit by storms yesterday. Locally significant flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Flash flooding is likely this evening across South
Carolina and Georgia as 2 areas of storms...one moving north over
south Georgia, and the other moving southeast over northwest South
Carolina collide somewhere near the I-20 corridor. This area was
hard hit with storms just yesterday, so many areas, especially in
and around Augusta have yet to recover from the heavy rainfall
last evening. Thus...FFGs are lower in these hard-hit areas.
Further, the storms are in an environment highly favorable for
efficient warm-rain processes. PWATs are between 2.3 and 2.5
inches based on SPC Mesoanalysis, and CAPE values are between
2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. These variables will help support the storms
producing heavy rainfall. Rates with the storms over northwestern
South Carolina have locally approached 3 inches per hour.

The collision of the 2 areas of storms and their respective
outflow boundaries will further enhance the lift by increasing the
forcing in this area. Given inflow of additional moisture from the
Atlantic, this will not only support long-lived heavy rain
producing storms, but also further enhance the rates the strongest
storms may achieve. Thus, rates to 4 inches per hour are possible
with the strongest storms this evening. 18Z HREF neighborhood
probability guidance shows a corridor of 70-80% chance of
exceeding 3 inches of rain in 6 hours along the I-20 corridor from
Augusta through Columbia, a 50-60% chance of exceeding 10-year
ARIs in 6 hours, and a 50-60% chance of exceeding 3-hour FFGs
between 00Z and 03Z.

CAMs guidance over the next few hours shows the storms moving SE
largely overtaking the ones moving N as they follow the
instability southeastward towards the coast...but with some
potential slowing of their forward speed as the outflow boundaries
between the 2 sets of storms collide.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iqS6mI24AV-otDkUFG2GyVy2q3Jp5RHC8r-V4BNpxoE3hCUbFWFE4omJZnFNOnoWAND= g4vTmJjB_0r2sa1gEXRSTA0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34908095 34627981 33578014 32618104 32398211=20
32748348 34088339 34168247 34888144=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080043
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Midde to Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080041Z - 080630Z

SUMMARY...Significant flash flooding likely as the northern
eyewall bands of T.S. Beryl begin to move ashore. Expect
consistent 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates to begin shortly
along the coast, gradually spreading inland.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Beryl is approaching the Middle to
Upper Texas Coast this evening. The intensifying cyclone has been
organizing its rainbands around the developing eye over the past
few hours as it contends with dry air entrainment. The remnant dry
air adds a bit of uncertainty as to rainfall amounts across this
area through the first half of the overnight, as the latest 4pm
CDT NHC forecast discussion suggests rapid intensification is
still possible prior to landfall. Rapid intensification would
entail intensifying rainbands associated with Beryl, and
increasing rainfall rates.

Prior to now, any rainfall associated with Beryl's outer rain
bands have been heavy at times, but the bands have subsequently
fallen apart as they move onshore and were fast enough moving over
an area with relatively dry soils that flash flooding has not been
a major concern. Going forward however, steady and increasingly
heavy rainfall is expected along the coast as the center of Beryl
approaches. Thus, the flash flooding threat will rapidly increase
with each successive hour of heavy rainfall.

A portion of the area around and south of Houston was hit with
heavy rainfall yesterday, resulting in a subsequent lowering of
FFGs...with hourly FFGs between 2 and 2.5 inches where normally
they're between 3 and 3.5 inches. This lowering will make flash
flooding occur more quickly once the rainfall becomes steady.

With both heavy rainfall and hurricane force winds likely along
and near the coast, flash flooding impacts will also quickly
increase with time both due to prior rainfall and debris clogging
local storm drains. Locally significant flash flooding is likely
and catastrophic flash flooding is possible through the evening
along the coast. For the Houston metro, expect increasingly
frequent heavy rainfall with some chance of the heavy rain
becoming steady by the end of the period, though the worst
conditions in Houston are likely to hold off until after the valid
time of this MPD.

An updated MPD will be issued by 0630Z.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7w2BRdpKNrFnnTuP7a5Chm4B29tBgfJsm492iYl03kfXnH8cbNDSyWmeV0kPX50ySCml= PpnMqvPSgj4yYFDn0Bif0QI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30019619 29939518 29679479 29499459 29379466=20
28799546 28209661 27789707 28679731 29549697=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080135
FFGMPD
IAZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0587
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080134Z - 080600Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding possible as storms move across portions
of Iowa with saturated soils. Rates to 2.5 inches per hour
possible.

DISCUSSION...A potent positively tilted shortwave in the
subtropical jet has provided the forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of western Iowa this
evening. While decently fast-moving, the storms are moving over
much of Iowa that has been hard-hit with heavy rainfall over the
past couple weeks. Thus, FFGs across the central part of the state
are low enough that while conditions for heavy rainfall are
somewhat less than ideal, cell mergers and outflow boundary
collisions are locally slowing the motion of the storms as they
follow the enhanced forcings. Thus, expect with continued
development of the storms east across Iowa, additional instances
of flash flooding are possible.

PWATs across Iowa are around 1.3 to 1.4 inches with MUCAPE values
around 2,000 J/kg. These values will support additional storm
development over the next few hours.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms forming now over the
northwestern part of the state will gradually coalesce into a
small MCS, which will then weaken as it gets to the eastern part
of the state in a few hours due to rapidly decreasing instability
along the Mississippi River where ongoing rainfall is itself
weakening for the same reason. HREF guidance shows about a 30%
chance of exceeding FFGs across portions of the area for both 3
and 6 hour FFGs.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8nUE4ucGUQMnTYs4UDZRa9BFjVnmAsPRpUXqT4rbQTiWxRDVMrvxkD7i5K3OpsuUKs4k= WJu1kZPPufw0KSnL7S_i9OA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 43489301 43459282 42679163 41369227 41169347=20
41199471 41859507 42539488 43179433 43459369=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0588
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Southeast KS...Northeast
NM...TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080310Z - 080910Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours and should be sufficiently organized and heavy
enough to support some additional isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery continues to
show the development and expansion of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity over southeast CO and into portions of
northeast NM. The convection is being facilitated by the arrival
of a cold front and supporting shortwave energy aloft along with a
moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg.

Over the last couple of hours, the convection has become a bit
more concentrated especially over southeast CO where low-level
upslope flow and frontal convergence along the eastern slopes of
the Sangre De Cristo mountains has yielded a stronger orographic
component to the convective evolution. Some cloud tops have been
as cool as -60 to -65C with some of the stronger updrafts.

A consolidation of convective clusters can be expected over the
next few hours, with convection taking on a more organized MCS
evolution that should propagate down to the southeast overnight
and gradually advance more out into the open High Plains.

The latest 00Z HREF guidance supports convection becoming a bit
focused over the next few hours over areas of far southeast CO and
also into portions of northeast NM, with an expectation of locally
heavier rainfall rates that will likely reach 1 to 2 inches/hour.
This activity may brush areas of far southwest KS, but will likely
advance in a forward propagating manner eventually into the TX/OK
Panhandle.

Some localized storm totals of 3 to 4 inches will be possible
where some of these cells locally train over the same area, and
these rains may foster some isolated to widely scattered instances
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8mDPfMVUzcPFebpnfyxCJByYj_q5FxD-7NWIGSYIS6ib3lZAUKke8KvPMbLxS7N7SE8M= MzXUYufDPh3XB22x9pWentU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38320342 37710174 36650093 35620087 34930149=20
34770261 35230370 36350471 37460497 38140458=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080626
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0589
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080625Z - 081130Z

SUMMARY...Hurricane Beryl continues to approach the middle Texas
coast as heavy rainbands move onshore. Very heavy rainfall rates
associated these rainbands and the gradual arrival of Beryl's
inner core/central convection will support increasing coverage of
flash flooding which will eventually become significant toward
dawn.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Beryl as of 06Z (1AM CDT) was positioned
near 28.2N 95.9W or about 30 miles miles south-southeast of
Matagorda, TX and is moving north-northwest at 10 mph. GOES-E
satellite imagery has been showing better convective organization
over the last few hours, with occasional brief hints of an eye
showing up in both IR and Proxy Visible satellite images. Cold
convective tops in particular are noted around the northern
semicircle of the cyclone, and this will set the stage for very
heavy rainfall to wrap northwestward and inland across southeast
TX over the next several hours as Beryl prepares for landfall.

Already there have been heavy outer rainbands ahead of Beryl
moving inland across portions of Matagorda and Brazoria counties
where increasingly strong and convergent low-level flow coupled
with enhanced moisture and instability transport has been yielding
an increasingly organized character to the convective banding.

MLCAPE values of near 1500 J/kg have noted with the stronger
bands, and there has been a notable increase in 0-3 km shear
profiles which will encourage there being stronger and more
organized updrafts including some supercell/mesocyclone structures
that will be conducive to enhanced rainfall rates.

Given the extremely moist environment and improving thermodynamic
and kinematic profiles, the rainfall rates within the stronger and
more organized convective bands will easily reach 2 to 3
inches/hour, and this is very strongly supported by the 00Z HREF
guidance. The latest satellite and radar trends coupled with the
00Z HREF guidance supports the idea of heavy convective bands in
particular impacting Matagorda and Brazoria counties over the next
few hours along with gradual arrival of central core convection
leading up to dawn. Meanwhile, impacts will be on the increase
farther up the coast into Galveston County, and inland across
Harris, Fort Bend and Wharton counties.

As Beryl's inner core/eyewall convection arrives toward dawn,
extreme rainfall impacts should ensue, and given the expectation
of as much 4 to 6+ inches of rain by dawn (especially over
Matagorda and Brazoria counties), numerous to widespread areas of
flash flooding should commence, with considerable/severe impacts
likely to be underway or soon beginning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2mpKXEBeB9T2pU7ujyF9BL5QLi7wkouezaIklJ17n5BlpGdXHz0RqBZdC5L6QG7vsKP= HcutRBmjana33g4Bh1A2lks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30069576 29919494 29449456 28899520 28709560=20
28489623 29019666 29799637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080847
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-081245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0590
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080845Z - 081245Z

SUMMARY...A linear band of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern MO will continue to pose a threat
of flash flooding going into the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a west to east
oriented band of heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions
of central and eastern MO. The activity is focused along and north
of a surface trough and ahead of a cold front approaching from the
west.

MUCAPE values are locally on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg with
moist and relatively convergent low-level flow advancing north up
across the region. There is evidence in GOES-E IR satellite
imagery of a weak vort center slowly transiting the region and
this coupled with the existing thermodynamic environment may allow
for the ongoing axis of convection to persist at least into the
early morning hours.

PWs are generally on the order of 1.6 to 1.8 inches and the
available instability should still be able to generate some
rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The latest radar and
satellite trends and the 06Z HREF guidance suggest that some
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches may occur through
early this morning.

Much of this will be tied into the slow cell-motions and training
of convective cells in a general west to east fashion. Gradually
this activity should weaken later this morning, but at least for
the next few hours, there will continue to be a threat for at
least localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9zW8uw-ZFJjDHXCw_NI4g6ikx7NTExZ3Nk_dwTtDaYQ1H-2ZmdNJh8lPuKTEWRaI2CCs= aRyAlZTQaOQ6p3yR391H1jY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39539147 39419076 39009069 38669212 38459329=20
38829366 39199320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080927
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-081525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Northeast to East-Central NM...TX Panhandle into
Northwest TX...Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080925Z - 081525Z

SUMMARY...Locally redeveloping and persistent areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms this morning will likely favor concerns
for instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing some rapid
cloud-top cooling across areas of northeast to east-central NM in
association with slow-moving areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Additional areas of convection are also seen
developing over parts of the TX Panhanlde.

This convection is largely being driven by the persistence of a
moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg, and with aid of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Furthermore the convection is in close proximity to a surface
front that has been settling gradually southward overnight.
Shortwave energy/forcing aloft digging down across the region and
also an axis of favorable low-level moisture convergence are
further supporting the convective activity and its localized
expansion.

Some of the convection has been tending to take on some linear
modes with training concerns while other areas of convection are
characterized by slow cell-motions and concerns for cell-mergers.
The MRMS data and dual-pol radar suggest there may be a fair
amount of hail in some of these storms, but the environment is
conducive for rainfall rates to still reach as high as 1.5
inches/hour.

Given some of the slow cell-motions and training considerations,
some rainfall totals may reach 3 to 4+ inches going through the
early morning hours as this activity generally moves off to the
east-southeast. Impacted areas should continue to be portions of
northeast to east-central NM, the TX Panhandle, far northwest TX,
and possibly some portions of southwest OK in time. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding are likely over the
next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!57pM6fvx5HnA1lFxXxMg0IF7soYhwhshu-joc5u5FyVh3ER7QEnMfOnzsVcqiyECfzvB= 0NKl0OtojfZn5na1UhRsvqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36400410 35810196 35550023 35459810 34619766=20
33999821 33659951 33590164 33970350 34780471=20
35410518 36120502=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081016
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Middle and Upper TX Coast into Eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081015Z - 081615Z

SUMMARY...Hurricane Beryl makes landfall near Matagorda, TX and is
moving inland over southeast TX. Extremely heavy rainfall will
move northward this morning with areas of flash flooding likely.
This will include areas of considerable to severe urban flash
flooding with locally life-threatening impacts expected.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Beryl as of 10Z (5AM CDT) was positioned
near 28.8N 96.0W, or about 15 miles north of Matagorda, TX, and is
moving north at 12 mph. Dual-pol radar and GOES-E satellite
imagery show the eye of Hurricane Beryl crossing the middle TX and
now moving inland across southeast TX with intense inner
core/eyewall convection producing extremely heavy rainfall rates.

Very heavy rainfall associated with Beryl's central convection
will lift steadily north through midday, and more areas of eastern
TX in general will come under the influence of heavier rainfall
rates and potentially some locally strong/organized convective
bands that may wrap around the eastern and northern flanks of the
storm. This will be connected to the very convergent and
moist/unstable low-level flow that will be advancing inland off
the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

A substantial pool of instability is situated around the northeast
quadrant of Beryl's circulation with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg noted, and the 00Z/06Z HREF guidance supports the gradual
development of some strong convective bands that will be capable
of training in a south to north fashion over areas of the upper TX
coast and inland areas of southeast and eastern TX.

Extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour are expected with the
inner eyewall convection and any of these stronger and more
organized convective bands that set up over the next several hours
to the east of the center. Expectations are for additional
rainfall totals through midday of as much as 4 to 8 inches and
this is supported by the 00Z/06Z HREF guidance.

Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding can be expected,
and this will include areas of considerable to severe urban flash
flooding with life-threatening impacts expected. Some of the major
metropolitan areas including the Houston/Galveston vicinity will
be at particular risk over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BRlEH1ImrYZjfgatxdnqFQKE4aHdN0DEzV7OpQbIvATrOXtpdywXpk03FZPBVihrtY0= 28N4Wnn6PwEqvj3_5Pq4Okk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30859564 30799488 30459441 29709436 29189477=20
28749557 28569599 28649647 29229674 30059672=20
30549642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081624
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-082223-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0593
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081623Z - 082223Z

Summary...Considerable flash and urban flooding will continue this
afternoon as Tropical Storm Beryl spreads very heavy rainfall
inland across eastern Texas and far western Louisiana.

Discussion...At 15Z, Tropical Storm Beryl was analyzed by the
National Hurricane Center at 29.8N 95.7W, about 20 miles northwest
of Houston, with a forward motion of 13 kts. As Beryl tracks
inland, regional radar mosaic depicts intense convection around
Beryl's inner core, alongside organized rain bands training along
the north and east flank of the storm.

As highlighted in MPD 592, this banded activity remains tied to a
steady influx of convergent and unstable low-level inflow from the
Gulf of Mexico, with a broad axis 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
2.5-2.6" PWATS noted upstream of the convection. Recent VWP
profiles from HGX and LCH also show 300 m2/s2 of 0-3 KM SRH and
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear to dynamically enhance rainfall
efficiency of individual cells within the bands (see SPC Tornado
Watch 514 for more on the severe threat).

Through the afternoon, very heavy rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr will
continue within the most intense bands around the north and east
side of Beryl, leading to 5-7" of rainfall across Eastern TX. This
will maintain the threat for considerable flash and urban flooding
for at least the next six hours across the region.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7EvAGv5v6T-tXOfN3bKl6FpKpKIwzrAjvSXu_-fy0zwGSskypwWsRCNsULNs37fGmB19= ndlCf5-15VdGIKJQEgJXgVY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32829524 32659416 31769375 30559336 29599385=20
29449457 29989522 29939626 30269657 30979658=20
32079610=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081908
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0594
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081907Z - 090107Z

Summary...Convection is filling in along an emerging deformation
zone northeast of Tropical Storm Beryl. Periods of training with
efficient rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr will cause widely
scattered instances of flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and GLM trends highlight expanding thunderstorm
coverage across portions of the Ozarks, along and ahead of a deformation/convergence zone and strengthening jet streak evident
in LPW and moisture channel imagery. Recent estimates from MRMS
and dual-pol across the region suggest increased rainfall
efficiency within these cells, with some 2-2.5"/hr rates noted.
Where these cells have persisted, fairly quick responses in the
CREST Unit Streamflow are noted.

While persistent cloud cover has hampered insolation, widespread
moistening from the approach of Beryl has allowed for 1.6-2.2"
PWATS and 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop around the convection.
Combined with the low-level convergence and increasing upper-jet
dynamics, the environment is very supportive for efficient periods
of training convection as the mean-wind is oriented parallel to
the forcing. In the short term, portions of the northeast Ozarks
may may have a locally higher threat of training and backbuilding
as the low-level inflow is at or near the mean wind per
mesoanalysis.

The 12z HREF LPMM maintains a strong signal for this activity
through the evening, and suggests rainfall amounts of 3-4" are
possible where the convection can train the longest. This is
expected to lead to at least scattered instances of flash flooding
tonight ahead of Beryl.=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!604MeZg5PG8KRtle_-k3sBC_jP3P1NNp0HkfiEsrbauLKn-oU83BXdLlIh07s-Wue9Lq= 24sWcqqpvmKqtTF2Yl-iy4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...
NWC...

LAT...LON 38249046 37848879 36788825 35928975 35129329=20
33339601 33249707 34099726 35949569 37579333=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081933
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0595
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...northeast FL...southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081930Z - 090130Z

Summary...Extreme rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr may result in
localized totals of 5"+. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Discussion...Deep convection is firing along the sea breeze
circulation this afternoon over southeast GA and northeast FL,
evident via GOES-East infrared imagery with impressively cold
cloud tops of -80deg C. Given near record levels of tropospheric
moisture content (precipitable water values of 2.3-2.6 inches)
with very slow storm motions (850-300 mb mean wind of 5 kts or
less), extreme rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are being realized with
the strongest updrafts. While effective bulk shear of less than 20
kts should generally prevent meaningful organization and limit
storm longevity, a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) to
the east is allowing for some upper-level divergence on the
western periphery of a ~70 kt sub-tropical jet streak. This subtle
feature (combined with the aforementioned tropical-like
tropospheric moisture) could allow for some repeating and
backbuilding of these impressive rates. This is also evidenced by
HREF 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities of 30-50% for the
5" threshold, which is near or above the corresponding (6-hr)
Flash Flood guidance (generally 4.0-5.0"). As a result, isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (with
particular concern for low-lying, urbanized terrain).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Ws33gjZahT_gk5DdMBm5rlIIyvRLvTbbSzjryDoSE4817Sw7RiGAIvROEzaK-RB8w-D= 7q3ah6XR7kZ4UwhRlUGeCKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32198133 31748099 30898133 29838146 30218282=20
31088313=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082205
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0596
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex into western/central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082200Z - 090400Z

Summary...Numerous to widespread instances of flash flooding
expected to continue in association with Tropical Storm Beryl.

Discussion...While Tropical Storm Beryl continues to gradually
weaken as it moves farther inland this evening, the flash flood
threat continues unabated as extratropical transition bolsters
heavy rainfall to the north and east/southeast of the circulation
(from the core of the tropical moisture and from a persistent
feeder band, respectively). Precipitable water values of 2.2-2.6
inches (near record levels, per SPC sounding climatology) are
supporting hourly accumulations of 1-3" (per MRMS estimates), and
continued training/repeating of these rates will result in
additional totals of 3-6" through 04z (with the greatest coverage
in association with the core of the tropical moisture through the
Ark-La-Tex, and more localized in a narrow corridor from the
feeder band across western/central LA). Given the latest
observational trends and accompanying hi-res model guidance,
numerous to widespread instances of flash flooding are expected to
continue in association with Tropical Storm Beryl (particularly
across the Ark-La-Tex, where up to 3-6" of rainfall has already
fallen, and more localized/confined across western/central LA
where little rainfall has fallen thus far). Impacts are expected
to be most significant over hydrophobic urbanized terrain and
flood-prone low-lying areas.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_VBwDOyGd4BUBWnecfEkGf5WUUkEJpsOSZ0yd7bHGdzoWDGNR7pOJjl2pNNmj8Kj7_pQ= QWXeKLj7vliDOa8fwHEIOVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LCH...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34679332 33719238 32309207 30769210 29479293=20
29569396 30739361 31709367 31719475 31889562=20
32329603 34069546=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090327
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090925-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0597
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley into the
Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090325Z - 090925Z

SUMMARY...Tropical Depression Beryl will continue to focus heavy
rainfall and areas of flash flooding heading through the overnight
hours across portions of the Lower MS Valley and the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR and Proxy Visible
satellite imagery shows T.D. Beryl continuing to lose convective
organization as it advances north-northeast across northeast TX
and takes on an increasingly assymetric appearance.

However, there remains a rather concentrated area of convection
just northeast of the center that is moving into southwest AR, and
there is a well-defined convective band even farther to the north
and east of the center that is oriented from central to southeast
AR. This band of convection is associated with a persistent
corridor of stronger low-level moisture convergence and proximity
of moderate to strong instability that continues to lift north
around the eastern flank of the cyclone's circulation.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are noted across central and
northern MS and into southeast AR, with a convergent and
strengthening south-southeast low-level jet noted as Beryl
continues to advance off to the north-northeast.

The 00Z HREF guidance suggests very heavy rainfall will still be
likely along and to the right of Beryl's track overnight, but as
the storm takes on an increasingly baroclinic/extratropical
character, there will be some moderate to heavy rain also shifting
around to the northwest of the center where stronger frontogenetic
forcing and a developing mid-level deformation zone will set up.

Rainfall rates with the stronger convective banding northeast of
Beryl's center may still be capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour. Some training of this activity over the same area,
along with the arrival of Beryl's remnant inner core convection,
should still favor some areas receiving an additional 3 to 6
inches of rain overnight.

These additional rains will continue to support areas of flash
flooding, and this will include some locally significant urban
flash flooding concerns. Areas overnight that may see notable
urban impacts will include the Little Rock metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7jzVLN_SSBaUUHgxrmBnz7lfQYBijDcq63-umKjtY-XHiCBCOx81qxas8Glyg6Jn7Yb5= EP0ZMi49YUijT9QHqw3OcLQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36679010 36288914 35718890 35298907 34878951=20
34599029 34209145 33799264 33289343 33209408=20
33839456 34539440 35389388 36159290 36639142=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090416
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-090800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast AL...Northern GA...Far Southeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090415Z - 090800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms may continue for a few more hours across areas of
far northeast AL, northern GA and far southeast TN.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a broken cluster of
showers and thunderstorms still tending to linger over areas of
far northeast AL, northern GA and far southeast TN. The convection
which has been locally anchored near some of the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians over the last couple of hours has been
producing some very high rainfall rates that have been upwards of
1.5 to 2+ inches/hour.

The convection has been aided by proximity of a quasi-stationary
front draped across the region and MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg
still remain pooled along it. This coupled with localized
orographics/upslope flow near the terrain and at least modest
low-level convergence should promote the convection lingering for
a few more hours before then weakening as instability is further
exhausted.

The 00Z HREF guidance along with the latest radar and satellite
trends suggest an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain cannot be ruled
out locally. This will especially be the case over northern GA
where convective cloud tops remain rather cold and suggestive of
stronger lingering updrafts. Therefore, some additional pockets of
flash flooding will be possible over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_prI4QhsOb6M40LhIgT8LRZ8XRv21PtYSwcAEd0658mbOxCaL6syw3cQwHsTLNOwfyZz= 4921Z7sMPge2a5XsEIp3juc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35388434 35298376 35108332 34688327 34458397=20
34468542 34748592 35138569 35358499=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090906
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0599
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Northern AR...Southeast MO...Northwest
TN...Western KY...Southern IL...Southwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090905Z - 091505Z

SUMMARY...Tropical Depression Beryl continues to weaken and lift
off to the north-northeast, but will continue to focus additional
areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding heading through the
morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The very early morning GOES-E GeoColor satellite
imagery shows a generally exposed low-level center that makes up a
weakening T.D. Beryl over far southwest AR just to the
north-northeast of Texarkana. Much of the remaining convection is
situated well off to the northeast of the center in a very
asymmetric manner that is characteristic of a system that is
increasingly becoming extratropical.

Regardless, there continues to be heavy rainfall and flash
flooding concerns, as broken bands of strong convection with heavy
rainfall rates stretch out from central AR northeastward through
northwest TN, western KY and southeast MO. Gradually this activity
will impact more areas of the Lower OH Valley going through the
morning hours including southern IL and southwest IN as Beryl
advances steadily off to the northeast.

MUCAPE values pooled around the eastern flank of Beryl's
circulation center remain on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with a
30 to 40 kt southerly low-level jet overrunning a warm front that
is gradually lifting north through the Mid-South ahead of Beryl's
track. This is resulting in a well-defined southwest to northeast
axis of focused isentropic ascent with moderate to heavy rain and
embedded stronger elevated convective elements. Some of these
convective elements though are focused and show organization given
the level of effective bulk shear (40 to 50+ kts) and updraft
helicity that remains in place.

The 06Z HREF and recent runs of the HRRR guidance suggest
additional heavy rains continuing well through the morning hours
ahead of Beryl, with the dominant focus along and increasingly to
the left of the storm track as Beryl continues to progress to a baroclinic/extratropical system.

Some rainfall rates with the persistent areas of stronger elevated
convection will continue to be on the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour.
Additional storm totals more regionally going through late this
morning should reach as high as 3 to 5 inches. These additional
rains will continue to favor areas of flash flooding, including
locally more significant urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9enATCcxwjEqNPH-4zGig4Y9zxZIBzjRSzY3AuFVtiykpzmOExn8eWQlwQkTqnABIziy= _XQx-I2Xkj3gh1nA1da6gt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38608793 38248689 37718648 36928667 36378771=20
35878915 35449037 34779178 34589295 34969380=20
35499395 36089368 36739316 37369232 38049095=20
38548937=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092157
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0600
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092155Z - 100300Z

Summary...Training/repeating rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
localized totals of 3-5". Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Discussion...Post-tropical cyclone Beryl is tracking northeast at
24 mph across the MS/OH Valleys this afternoon, and convection has
become focused primarily east of the center (both along the warm
front and across the warm sector (post-frontal). Discrete
supercells have become the most efficient rainfall producers, with
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. Otherwise, convection is generally
producing rates of 1"/hr or less (with stratiform rainfall north
of the center generally producing 0.5"/hr or less). Along and
ahead of the warm front, the mesoscale environment is
characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 2.0-2.3 inches (near record values, per SPC sounding
climatology from surrounding sites), and ample effective bulk
shear of 45-55 kts.

With convection is remaining rather progressive due to the strong
dynamics of this post-tropical system, there is a distinct risk of
localized training/repeating of heavy rainfall rates (1-2"/hr) in
and around the aforementioned warm front (stretching from southern
IL across the IN/KY border region). The 18z HREF probability
matched mean QPF depicts localized totals of 3-5" (with
corresponding 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance
of 20-30%). A much broader region to the north and east of the
cyclone has relatively high odds of localized 2" exceedance (per
40-km neighborhood probabilities of 40-70%), and corresponding
Flash Flood Guidance (3-6 hr) generally ranges from 2-3". As a
result, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible (with the greatest risk over southeast IN and adjacent
portions of IL/KY).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9MMTSkQmwRYEk4G7-Caxl9It7OSO5cxD9Lfh0LMo3bX3HhI0TC7ByuWm_9tGAjAJ5a7q= D-7Q6DGRIjv3hM8tAfvBKjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LOT...LSX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40708771 40468699 40008630 39578588 38888511=20
37718531 36608585 36338744 36668815 37898853=20
39648992 40328948 40648867=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100336
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0601
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Eastern IL...Central/Northern IN...Western
OH...Southern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100335Z - 100935Z

SUMMARY...Post-T.C. Beryl will continue off to the northeast
overnight, bringing heavy rain and a threat of flooding to the OH
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region.

DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
Post-T.C. Beryl continuing to advance off to the northeast across
the OH Valley. An axis of moderate to heavy rain continues to
focus north of the storm track in association with a well-defined
mid-level deformation zone and coincidence with an axis of strong
frontogenetic forcing. This is being facilitated by a deep layer
TROWAL associated with the deeper layer and very warm/moist
southerly flow advecting north ahead of Beryl's track.

The heaviest rains within the deformation zone are generally
focused across east-central to northeast IL through northern IN
and into southern Lower MI. To the southeast of this corridor,
there are areas of heavy rain that include some stronger elevated
convective elements, and this is generally noted across central IN
through western OH. A nose of stronger instability associated with
a convergent southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts continues to
lift north and over a warm front that extends east of Beryl's
circulation, and MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are noted
across central IN through western OH. Greater instability
meanwhile is situated closer to the OH River over southern IN
through southern OH where MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are
noted.

Rainfall rates with the stronger convective elements closer to the
warm front have recently been on the order of 1" to 2"/hour, with
rates back into the deformation zone persistently in the 0.50" to
0.75"/hour range. The PW environment remains quite tropical over
the OH Valley with values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches based on a
combination of 00Z RAOB and GPS-derived information, and this
environment should continue to favor efficient rainfall processes
for locally enhanced rainfall rates overnight.

Additional rainfall totals overnight will likely reach as high as
2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals not out of the question
where any stronger convective cells persist. These rains will
promote a threat for additional flooding overnight, including some
localized urban flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6LII46CyGu-BweKbVkSLcxZk0Xscj_skCE85wArDp2Mr8SH7kChCCjywaBg9m3daQHak= Q4iyFkPh_33mBV5yAS1zKDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42748504 42588330 41488254 40268284 39078399=20
39158502 40028564 40198608 40208713 40138782=20
40438843 41108830 41838748 42368634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101731
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0602
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico, including the Sacramento
Mountains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101730Z - 102330Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move slowly across New Mexico this afternoon. Rainfall rates at
times will likely exceed 1"/hr, which could produce locally as
much as 3 inches of rain. This will result in rapid runoff, with
instances of flash flooding possible across sensitive terrain and
burn scars.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon indicates
rapid Cu and TCu development over the Sacramento Mountains of NM,
coincident with a rapid increase of instability noted by 3-hr
SBCAPE change from the SPC RAP of 600-1000 J/kg. This surging
instability is primarily due to warming beneath full sunshine on
the periphery of an upper ridge centered across the Desert
Southwest, with subtly lowered heights and a weak embedded impulse
aiding in ascent over NM. At the same time, low-level flow is
lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the Rio Grande Valley,
driving PWs to as high as 1.1 inches, which is above the 75th
percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology. The 12Z U/A
sounding out of KEPZ indicated freezing levels above 12,000 ft and
mid-level lapse rates near moist-adiabatic levels, indicating the
potential for efficient warm rain processes as storms rapidly
blossom through the afternoon.

During the next few hours, it is likely that convection will
expand across southern New Mexico within these favorable
thermodynamics, with intensification occurring as SBCAPE climbs
above 1000 J/kg. This suggests storms will fire initially along
higher terrain features, and then drift slowly southward due to
0-6km mean winds that are just around 5 kts. Limited bulk shear
suggests storms will generally be of the pulse variety, but storm
collisions and brief terrain-tying could enhance and increase
heavy rainfall residence times in some areas. Both the HREF and
REFS indicate a high (above 60%) probability for 1"/hr rain rates,
while the sub-hourly HRRR suggests locally 0.25-0.5" of rain in 15
minutes. Any location that receives multiple rounds of these heavy
rain rates, or where any storm/terrain interaction can result in
longer residence times, locally as much as 3" of rain is possible
as reflected by HREF 3"/6hr probabilities as high as 10%.

Both the HREF and REFS probabilities favor the greatest risk for
heavy rainfall to be across the Sacramento Mountains where FFG is
only around 1.5"/3hrs, and likely even lower across the multiple
vulnerable burn scars in that region. Instances of flash flooding
this afternoon should be isolated due to the scattered nature of
the convection, but if any storm lingers in the sensitive terrain,
especially atop recent burn scars, flash flooding would be likely.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cudrv_zfpJS1Xik7OW6paan2jgfZshRLYQ94pcN9GWfcifXrjSB2hnbjxZY91tJbYQl= ZmF4fB-CKA0-Y1X4dUmWCiU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34920548 34770508 34090492 33370497 33070495=20
32750461 32310447 31800462 31750534 31860597=20
32470649 33460659 34400637 34810607=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101839
FFGMPD
VTZ000-NYZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0603
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...Upstate New York, Vermont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101837Z - 110030Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and train to the
northeast through this evening. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or more
will be common, which through training could produce 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon indicates
widespread showers and thunderstorms expanding downstream of post
tropical cyclone Beryl which is located over southern Michigan. A
warm front extending east from this system draped across Upstate
NY and into northern New England is providing a focus for ascent
within extreme thermodynamics. PWs as measured by GPS are 2-2.25
inches across Upstate NY, daily records for both BUF and ALY, with
accompanying SBCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg south of the warm
front into PA. Within the warm sector, 850mb inflow is reaching
25-35 kts, drawing these impressive thermodynamics northward, and isentropically ascending the warm front to enhance ascent. At the
same time, modest RRQ upper diffluence is providing additional
synoptic forcing, with mesoscale convergence along the nose of the
surging 850mb winds also resulting in enhanced lift. A pre-frontal
surface trough is pivoting across PA and driving additional
ascent, along which supercells are lifting northward within the
warm sector, and rainfall rates within these supercells and in
convection just north of the warm front have been estimated via
local radars above 1.5"/hr already today.

During the next few hours, there is good agreement that the warm
front will pivot northward to approach the Canadian border while
the surface trough lifts east. Together these will compress the
warm sector leading to enhanced thermodynamic transport northward
to fuel even more intense and widespread convection. Storms
developing south of the warm front will likely transit northward
rapidly on NE 850-300mb winds of 30-40 kts, with additional
development occurring along and just north of the boundary. The
overlap of intense thermodynamics and ascent will result in
rainfall rates for which the HREF and REFS both indicate will
exceed 2"/hr, and the HRRR suggests short-term 4"/hr rates are
possible as reflected by 15-min accumulations reaching 1". Storm
organization through bulk shear of 40-60 kts is also expected,
which will prolong and enhance rain rates, and the environment
supports training of echoes to the E/NE, especially where the
greatest confluence of moisture transport vectors occurs. This
could result in 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts as
reflected by HREF probabilities for 3"/6hrs reaching 10-20%.

These intense rain rates could produce instances of flash flooding
across any urban areas of sensitive terrain features through this
evening. However, the greatest risk for flash flooding will be
where any training occurs across locally compromised FFG which is
as low as 1.5-2"/3hrs, where the HREF indicates a 50-70% chance of
FFG exceedance. While instances of flash flooding are possible the
next several hours, the concern may increase later this evening as
primed soils from this afternoon's rainfall get impacted by
multiple rounds of heavy rain, and additional MPD issuances may be
needed.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6iYYdzOtIH9psJtzp_DgqIG1l7B8Z72LEsq7nFRXLtmT8S4lsxVssD_A7sgHd1TD8uuW= DtNjpFfB4jFCDgEZMCHNIjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45337295 45287213 45057194 44677228 44387246=20
43897315 43437386 43197514 42917628 42767703=20
42707771 42827802 43097806 43597738 43947687=20
44127659 45057552 45267457=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102349
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0604
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Northeast/northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110000Z - 110600Z

Summary...Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of
post-tropical Beryl to continue to fuel extreme hourly 1-3"
totals. This is expected to result in additional totals of 3-5".
Numerous to widespread flash floods are likely, including some
significant, life threatening flash flooding.

Discussion...The remnants of post-tropical Beryl and the base of
an associated upper-level longwave trough are gradually shifting
northeast, currently located over eastern MI and Lakes Huron and
Erie. Strong to severe thunderstorms have been concentrated along
a warm front and associated secondary low pressure center, which
extend northeastward from the main cyclone triple-point (located
over western NY). The mesoscale environment in the vicinty of the
secondary low pressure center and associated warm front is
characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 2.1-2.4 inches (near all time record values, per ALB
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 45-65 kts. In
addition, a broad 30 kt low-level jet (LLJ) at 850mb is progged to
narrow and intensify to 35-45 kts this evening (per the 21z RAP
forecast), driving ample moisture transport/flux convergence. This
strong low-level convergence is also being complemented by even
more significant divergence aloft (~250 mb), via the
right-entrance region of a 110+ kt jet streak over southern
Quebec.

Hi-res guidance paints an especially concerning picture through
evening, as localized hourly totals of 1.5-2.5" (per MRMS
estimates) are expected to continue in association with
semi-discrete supercell/multicell clusters (with instantaneous
rainfall rates of 4"/hr resulting in as much as 1" of rainfall in
15-min). While these hourly totals have remained somewhat
localized thus far, the increasing coverage of cells (as the
aforementioned dynamic aspects of the system continue to improve
this evening) is already resulting in numerous to widespread
coverage along and ahead of the warm front. This should result in
a swath of 3-5" of rainfall from northern NY through northern
VT/NH, with very good agreement among the hi-res guidance (18z
HREF members and more recently hourly runs of the HRRR). A narrow
swath of these totals has already occurred across portions of
northern NY, which suggests that locally higher amounts (6"+) are
rather likely as well (which is depicted by the most extreme HREF
members, as well as the 90th percentile of the experimental WoFS
system). Perhaps the most telling piece of statistical guidance is
the HREF neighborhood (40-km) probability for 100 year Annual
Recurrence Interval (ARI) exceedance, which ranges from 30-50%
(outlined by the pink hatched area in the graphic). Given this
totality of data, numerous to widespread instances of flash
flooding are likely (and locally significant, life threatening
flash flooding is also likely, particularly over vulnerable
low-lying areas in the vicinity of 6"+ totals).=20

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kve7kHLh1qZSd5c-CpJFnQ3OsdNTYDy7lhibGEavILiO9FoIoWuyUulJApmddR3OdMC= 3ZfEA2A6XeUqAbZix-YEOoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46297009 45636965 44157111 43277346 42767532=20
43347614 44667455 45447270 45937133=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110458
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-110956-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0605
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Areas affected...Vermont, New Hampshire, and portions of Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110456Z - 110956Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should continue for at least a few
more hours as heavy rainfall trains along a warm front.

Discussion...Flash flood potential should continue across the
discussion area for at least the next 2-3 hours. So far,
convection has aligned along a west-southwest to east-northeast
warm front extending generally from Burlington, VT to roughly 50
miles north of Bangor, ME. Convection continues to focus along
this axis, which also coincides with peak 850mb speed convergence
while also aligning parallel to flow aloft. Rain rates are
peaking in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, which is threatening FFG
thresholds across the region (~1.5 inch/hr) while also repeating
along the aforementioned convergence axis.

The ongoing scenario supporting heavy rain/flash flooding should
continue due to the slow evolution of meso-to-synoptic scale
features and abundant moisture in place across the discussion
area. One potential negating factor for higher rain rates is
waning instability, which was hovering at around 500 J/kg MUCAPE
per recent SPC mesoanalyses along the convergence zone. It is
uncertain whether instability profiles will continue to support
strong-enough updrafts for continued heavy rainfall, although it
appears that at least 1 inch/hr rain rates should continue through
07-08Z this morning near the front. Flash flooding remains likely
in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4_x_24xbb8knRl9KzWePRuV7j-5Hgopp7ZTCVfLQrKwScWKxRv4jbSjfpQkmqYDcAJuI= B_4fiHroRgfXDoRh-LaF6j4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46016782 45316751 43937074 43697290 43997339=20
44437278 45007192 45867000=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111327
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-111800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0606
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
926 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Areas affected...Coastal Plain of North Carolina, Northeast South
Carolina, Southeast Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111325Z - 111800Z

Summary...Nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms will persist
this morning along a slow moving cold front. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are expected, which through this slow movement could
produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a line
of thunderstorms from the southern DelMarVa through the coastal
plain of North Carolina and into far northeast South Carolina near
the Grand Strand. This line is occurring along a cold front which
has stalled in response to impeding flow from the east, and this
front may waver back to the west through the afternoon. The
environment across the eastern Carolinas and into southern
Virginia is extremely supportive to heavy rain noted via the KMHX
12Z U/A sounding which featured 2.32" PWs, a daily record, and
freezing levels above 17,000 ft. This will support efficient
warm-rain processes, and radar-estimated rain rates have been as
high as 3"/hr, fueling some ongoing flash flood warnings and
mesonet reported rainfall as much as 2-4" already this morning.

As the day progresses, this cold front will waver and is progged
to retrograde slightly to the west in response to increasing
easterly flow merged with the sea breeze pushing west. The RAP
suggests PWs may go as high as 2.5", combined with SBCAPE reaching
2000-3000 J/kg to produce extreme thermodynamics through the day.
With both synoptic and mesoscale ascent plentiful through the day,
this will support rainfall rates which the REFS and HREF both
suggest have a higher than 40% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, and it
is likely short term rates will reach 3-4"/hr at times. With very
weak winds through 300mb in place, mean 850-300mb winds will
remain just 5-10 kts, which in the presence of minimal shear
suggests pulse type storms which will move very slowly, possibly
becoming stationary at times as noted by Corfidi vectors becoming
less than 5 kts with chaotic direction. This should result in
overturning of the instability along the front, but continued
resupply of the extreme thermodynamics into the front will drive
regeneration, and in some places this will result in 2-4" of rain,
with local amounts above 5" possible.

The coastal plain has been dry, noted by AHPS 7-day rainfall that
is generally less than 25% of normal and associated 0-40cm soil
moisture from NASA SPoRT that is below the 30th percentile in many
areas. This has raised FFG to 3-4"/3hrs, but HREF exceedance
probabilities reach above 40% in some areas, further reflecting
that the intensity of the rainfall today can overcome the
antecedent dryness. The greatest risk is expected across urban
areas, but anywhere these intense rates can linger could drive
rapid runoff to produce instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81xlQ-UKEk7QnQT18p7sjCXL_VK9NSIstOdgy1WZPXZ3XFa9UWVr-qaGdi4QJm8SJWhh= nOXfmBXR470QVLqpwxxwP4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37117670 36977614 36637587 36417569 36117557=20
35477592 34527671 33947774 33677830 33527877=20
33587904 33747905 34037897 34367886 34917845=20
35337822 36847717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111744
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Areas affected...Coastal Plain from far southeast VA through
northeast SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111743Z - 112300Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
regenerate and begin to drift westward through the afternoon.
Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are expected, which could produce 2-3"
of rain with locally up to 5". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible satellite imagery this afternoon
shows a very unique setup across the coastal plain from southeast
VA through northeast SC. In this area, convective Cu is
continuously regenerating along a hybrid cold front/outflow
boundary, with high-level convective debris shifting west into the
Piedmont. Storms are regenerating along this axis due to modest
easterly low-level flow impinging into the boundary to drive
ascent, while concurrently drawing extreme thermodynamics
characterized by near-record PWs above 2.3 inches and SBCAPE above
3000 J/kg westward into the boundary. The persistent ascent into
these thermodynamics has fueled a narrow corridor of nearly
stationary storms this morning, which have resulted in
radar-estimated rainfall rates above 3"/hr, and MRMS measured
rainfall as much as 7" in parts of eastern NC.

Confidence in evolution the next few hours is somewhat limited due
to variable CAM solutions, but the ingredients will continue to
support a heavy rain threat through the evening. A mid-level wave
of low pressure off the NC coast will begin to retrograde
westward, shedding weak impulses onshore coincident with an
increase in moist advection/IVT. This should finally begin to push
the cold front westward, aided by the sea breeze circulation,
while still continuing to be a focus for locally enhanced ascent
through convergence. With PWs remaining at near record values, and
higher SBCAPE spreading westward behind the front, the environment
will remain supportive of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr as
reflected by HREF and REFS probabilities reaching 30-50%. At the
same time, the Corfidi vectors are progged to remain nearly
anti-parallel to the mean 0-6km winds, suggesting storms will
continue to backbuild along the front as it advects west,
resulting in a longer duration of these rates. The focus is not
expected to be as narrow as it has so far today since the
instability gradient will weaken as the front pivots towards the
Piedmont, but the HREF probabilities and HREF/REFS 6-hr PMM still
suggest additional rainfall of 2-4" with locally higher amounts in
some areas.

Rainfall today has already been 2-3" with locally much higher
amounts, and this has saturated the soils in a narrow corridor.
While this region will be most sensitive to additional heavy rain
leading to instances of flash flooding, the slow movement of these
intense rain rates have a 15-35% chance of exceeding 3-hr FFG
according to the HREF as far west as I-95 through this evening.
This indicates the continued potential for flash flooding anywhere
across the coastal plain, but the greatest risk will continue to
be in urban areas or atop already saturated soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wMvwm-e8PLhjhVCC8B-t988uwtJvkMKL8eihLbN5KM5foXHL5PkmGOTXPPw4hO3NIjf= VQyvdS2CREHwmm2R-m7Dy-4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36987643 36957594 36537573 36007612 35257664=20
34677684 34137734 33777801 33627853 33417901=20
33357923 33477931 34077907 34757897 35627877=20
36537817 36847727=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 120629
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas, far western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120627Z - 121227Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are producing spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS). These rates pose an
isolated flash flood risk over the next few hours.

Discussion...A focused, slow-moving band of deep convection has
materialized across portions of southeastern Kansas over the past
hour or so (near Chanute and Pittsburg). The storms are very slow
moving due to weak northwesterly steering flow (at around 10
knots). The storms are focused on the nose of 25-30 kt
southwesterly flow at 850mb and are in an environment
characterized by modestly steep lapse rates aloft (~7C/km) atop
70s F surface dewpoints, yielding 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE. The slow
movement and 1.5 inch PW values have fostered areas of 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates to materialize. These rates were slightly lower than
local FFG thresholds across southeastern Kansas (in the 2.5
inch/hr range) - suggesting only isolated flash flood potential in
low-lying spots and/or areas that can experience more than one
hour of the heavier rates.

A cold pool/weak wave aloft was aiding in convective development
as well, and will be migrating slowly southward across the
discussion area through the early morning hours. Additional
convective bands may materialize, and a higher (but still
isolated) flash flood risk may unfold if cells can produce heavier
rainfall in Missouri where FFG thresholds are a bit lower (around
1.5 inch/hr). This threat is uncertain, however. The more
certain scenario is for storms to continue to focus on the nose of
stronger low-level flow in southeastern Kansas through the early
morning. This flow will eventually veer to westerly and weaken
some, with an attendant decrease in convective potential expected
through 12Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pALQf-KG_nWuI9Rh4obs6D_IGob-6vjnBDFVHkJIYuRKw06bJMo-7CKjS0gfHGR1WuZ= 2ynOq2kDHr5dGq5kyKQluQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39259506 38629406 37459387 36749390 36919526=20
37369614 38869603=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 120936
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-121534-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120934Z - 121534Z

Summary...Scattered heavy downpours are likely to traverse the
discussion area from southeast to northwest for most of the
morning. Brief heavy rainfall (with rates exceeding 2 inches/hr)
could cause a few spots of flash flooding over time.

Discussion...The combination of low-level warm/moist advection
across the discussion area, an upslope component to that flow, and
weakness in geopotential height fields aloft along the East Coast
has fostered scattered shower and thunderstorm development across
the discussion area this morning. The warm advection regime has
maintained an abundantly moist, unstable airmass (characterized by
2.3 inch PW values and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) to support efficient
rainfall rates. Slow northwestward movement of cells within the
warm advection regime has supported areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates at times on an isolated basis. These rain rates were
materializing over areas of relatively high FFG thresholds in most
areas (2-2.5 inch/hr), although localized spots and urban areas
(i.e., Norfolk/Richmond through northeastern NC and the Piedmont)
have locally lower FFGs around 1 inch/hr that have supported a
locally higher flash flood threat.

The ongoing scenario is likely to continue through the mid-morning
hours as deep southeasterly flow supports additional heavy
rainfall. Models depict an uptick in convective coverage after
sunrise, which isn't surprising given the already unstable and
uncapped airmass in place. Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are
likely to materialize on at least an isolated basis, which could
result in flash flooding especially across aforementioned
sensitive areas. Although uncertain, there is some concern for
development of a more focused axis of localized banding or
training of cells. The greatest risk of this development will
exist across southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina -
especially after 12-13Z or so.=20

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_S4DJ7NHqi3x-y2NHlYhxc-d3B9mA-V63Wy5ZF_VeRC9x-g1asy6xSteDlG5ltnR47Y= IuLEDvskJrUm2JD7ImZ4Tds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38777555 38337517 36887575 35787560 35297578=20
34527732 33897825 34618026 35228055 36347996=20
38327782 38757644=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 121407
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-122000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0610
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1006 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...eastern Mid-Atlantic states

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121405Z - 122000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and train within
an extremely moist environment through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely, which could produce 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates an
expanding area of showers with embedded thunderstorms from
northern South Carolina through central New Jersey, encompassing
much of the Mid-Atlantic states. This precipitation is occurring
in the vicinity of a stationary front analyzed by WPC, aided by a
weak shortwave impulse which will lift north from Virginia, and
from the distant but still influential RRQ of a jet streak over
the Ohio Valley. The environment across the region is extremely
supportive of heavy rainfall, with PWs measured by morning U/A
sounding reaching 2 to 2.3 inches (2.39 inches, a daily record at
OKX) with coincident MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The most intense
instability remains just east of the coastline, but low-level S/SE
flow will continue to draw that CAPE northward to enhance the
thermodynamics through the afternoon.

The CAMs are in good agreement that waves of precipitation will
continue to surge onshore in response to increasing IVT (peaking
above 500 kg/m/s in VA) as onshore flow persists. This will likely
push the stationary front at least a bit to the west, with a sharp
instability and moisture gradient remaining along that boundary.
This suggests that the heaviest rain will occur along and just
east of the front, which is supported by HREF and REFS
probabilities reaching 40-50% for 3" in the next 6 hours, and it
is possible a few areas approach 4-5" of rainfall by this evening
across the DelMarVa. These impressive rainfall amounts will occur
in response to intense rainfall rates which have a 60% (15%)
chance of reaching 1"/hr (2"/hr), with short duration rates even
higher than that reflected by HRRR 15-min accumulations as much as
0.75". While mean cloud-layer winds are likely to remain
progressive at 15-20 kts, this flow will be nearly aligned to the
front, and as Corfidi vectors become increasingly aligned against
the mean flow this will support backbuilding and regeneration of
echoes to support enhanced training.

NASA SPoRT 0-10cm soil moisture is less than 40% in most areas,
which is resulting in FFG that is quite elevated at 3-4"/3hrs.
This suggests that in most areas, flash flooding will be isolated,
and HREF exceedance probabilities peak at only 15%. However, the
intense rain rates supported by record PWs and collocated weak
lapse rates could overwhelm soils in the more vulnerable
locations, especially urban areas, and where any training of these
rain rates occur, instances of flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9YtlRqyfXu8j2Fw2wln6T4vf3UL1Cu_WOeuLv4lPnNueYePHxAi2KlQ985CCLVSegFd_= srYXUjW1msFOT1CBymeki6I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41107480 41107424 40907386 40577374 39997389=20
39737405 39147444 38897472 38677492 38487525=20
38437569 38447621 38537663 38757720 39157748=20
39897676 40757563=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 121539
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0611
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Northeast South Carolina through the DelMarVa
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121536Z - 122100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and
intensify through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are
possible, which through training will likely result in 2-3" of
rain, with narrow corridors of up to 5" possible. This could cause
instances of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

Discussion...GOES_E WV imagery this morning clearly indicates the
favorable setup for heavy rainfall today. An extremely moist
ribbon of air draped from SC through the Mid-Atlantic continues to
stream northward, while shortwave impulses over the Atlantic
spread north/northwest. PWs as measured by GPS are as high as
2.25", coincident with SPC RAP analyzed MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg,
highest from the Grand Strand to the Outer Banks. Low-level S/SE
flow of 15-25 kts at 850mb is drawing this moisture/instability
overlap northward to supply impressive thermodynamics into a
stationary front analyzed by WPC. The overlap of isentropic ascent
atop this boundary, with convergence along the front, and
additional convergence where the 850mb winds decrease and veer
north of the associated trough will continue to drive pronounced
ascent through the aftn. Rainfall rates estimated by local
WSR-88Ds have already reached 1.5-2"/hr, and it is expected these
will continue to intensify through the day.

The stationary front is progged to waver back to the west as the
most impressive advection of moisture (IVT nearing 500 kg/m/s)
pushes into NC/VA. Not only will this continue to support near
record PWs, but will also push the best thermodynamics westward
towards the Piedmont. This suggests that convection will become
more widespread, which is indicated by the available CAMs as well,
leading to expansive coverage of rainfall rates which have a 20%
(40%) chance of exceeding 2"/hr on the HREF (REFS). Mean cloud
layer winds of 10-15 kts suggest storms will generally move to the
north and along the boundary, with anti-parallel Corfidi vectors
suggesting enhanced backbuilding and training as well. Where the
most significant training can occur, which is likely to be in the
immediate vicinity of this stationary front, total rainfall of
2-3" is likely, with a 20-30% chance of more than 5" also present
in both ensemble systems (HREF/REFS). Although there is some
spread in the CAM output, there appears to be a region of slightly
higher potential for this maximum rainfall along and just west of
I-95 across NC and into the Middle-Neck of VA where HREF EAS
probabilities are greatest.

While much of the Mid-Atlantic has been very dry noted by 7-day
AHPS rainfall departures less than 50% of normal yielding elevated
3-hr FFG of 2.5-3.5", training of these intense rain rates can
still overwhelm soils to produce runoff and flash flooding. The
most likely areas for any flash flooding would be where the
intense rates move across urban areas, but anywhere significant
training occurs could cause instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!61cz0OYwMN1F0TylNYbCKX7aSfBlIVSc6hD0bHB-8FNYaU74DVqPRpAVRd_a8o2PA27P= gBrBa95JtcpHqswNCkRwL3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38437637 38437604 38377581 38047578 37367581=20
36267605 35527626 34847658 34247751 33957848=20
33777922 33777972 33878010 34038023 34548032=20
35987953 38147708 38377672=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 121937
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0612
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Coastal NJ...Coastal Delmarva Peninsula...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121935Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...Strong storms with ample deep moisture flux convergence
supportive of 2"/hr rates likely to cross over areas already
experiencing 2-5" totals this morning with ongoing flooding.=20=20
Additional 2-3" over the next few hours likely to reaggravate
flooding conditions locally.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E and KDOX RADAR show a mature cluster of
thunderstorms lifting through the Delmarva into S Delaware with a
few scattered thunderstorms trailing through the Virginia portion
of the peninsula. These cells continue to feed on remaining
modestly unstable air with 3-5 degrees spread in
temperature/dewpoints but still in the upper to mid 70s and nearly
moist adiabatic lapse rates; suggests some MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg hugging the coastal zone through central NJ. The
moisture axis remains just west of the active convective line, but
stronger 25-30kts of confluent 925-850mb flow will continue to
provide the moisture flux convergence to maintain convection. Mid
to upper level right enhance ascent/outflow are waning a bit, but
should maintain activity for a few more hours. Given the core of
the moisture axis is at or above 2.25"; the instability axis
aligns along the gradient, but well within the 2" total PWats and
while oblique, the convergence will provide efficient rainfall
production especially given fairly high (15Kft) freezing levels to
generate a mode of tropical showers with limited energy loss to
ice production/melting. As such, rates of 2-2.5"/hr are likely
the norm. As such spots of additional 2-3" are possible,
especially if convergence remains strong along the upwind side
further south along the southern peninsula.

Surface and RADAR analysis also note earlier outflow boundary
across S NJ from some weak cold pool, that may be more orthogonal
to the low level ascent pattern allowing for additional dynamic
ascent to maintain risk even as local environment starts to
stabilize. So there is some concern, cell motions/tracks may
favor propagation along or just off-shore, but there is enough
uncertainty in motions that any potential overlap with earlier
rounds of heavy rainfall would likely result in reaggravation of
flooding conditions bit it rapid inundation or flashy/quick moving
in nature over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!52Wypm3cOKyZabnaGRqZGtuugPD6SI-CMkBXVW5ayoMYKtcoNemItbIgfJ6JxIudq4gM= NPmZUWQQ-bwfaCOcUt62TBQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40127421 39967401 39427431 38957467 37987518=20
37127581 37347604 38177609 39137557 39667505=20
40057463=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 122040
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0613
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Virginia, North
Carolina and Northeast South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122040Z - 130230Z

SUMMARY...Reducing coverage and longevity is expected given
weakening convergence/instability parameters. However, remaining
pockets of unstable air within a highly saturated environment will
continue to produce scattered intense rain showers capable of
inducing flash flooding given rates of 2-3"/hr, resulting in spots
of 2-4" totals in short-duration (<3hrs). Scattered incidents of
flash flooding remain likely through evening.=20

DISCUSSION...An extremely amplified or nearly laminar flow regime
continues to hug the Carolina coast into the northeast. Favorable
jet divergence is starting to wane as polar jet lifts further away
across the Great Lakes while southerly branch off the coast
continues to weaken in favor of return flow around the larger
sub-tropical high out near 70W. As such, the trapped mid-level
shortwave in coastal South Carolina continues to shear/elongate
through the I-95 corridor; while the associated 850-700 wave
retrograded toward near Charlotte and is lifting northward at the
tail end of the favored jet divergence pattern. This has driven
the 850 front further west and breaks in the cirrus deck, allowed
for filtered insolation. Deeper moisture to the west and ample
low level moisture in place made for very unstable airmass to
develop. Low level flow backed and fluxed the higher moisture
into the 850-700mb frontal/deformation zone and thunderstorms have
subsequently developed. Deep layer flow is weak or slightly
northeast and so cells near the Fall Line have become capable of
2-3"/hr with similar scattered totals. This will continue to
expand northward into central VA; but is likely to diminish into
late evening as temperatures fall with loss of insolation, though
surge of moisture/convergence (as seen by arched band of
convection across south central to Middle Neck of VA) may allow
for some lingering organization after 00z.

Across Coastal Carolinas...
A short respite in activity has occurred along/east of the frontal
zone from Florence, SC up along I-95 toward northeast NC. As the
850-700mb wave continues to lift northeastward with the
upper-level forcing, the onshore flow has continued and will be
strengthening back to 20-25kts at 850mb. This is recharging the
environment of E NC, where there is some increasing
temperature/dewpoint spread and therefore increasing CAPE.=20
Current activity to the west is probable to enhance low level
eastward outflow and further sharpen the surface boundary. This
will increase convective activity though the evening and with some
speed convergence (25kts reducing to 15kts) and some isentropic
ascent, should result in increasing convective activity and
coverage. Total moisture values of 2.25-2.5" with 25kts of flux
will allow for highly efficient rainfall production with rates of
2-3"/hr at times. However, stronger inflow will allow for a slow
eastward propagation into higher unstable environment, so
coverage/potential for mergers will increase. Additionally, south
to north cell motions will further the potential for some
localized training. As such, pockets of 2-4" totals through 03z
are becoming more likely. HRRR and recent WoFS output show
similar evolution and output providing some increased confidence
toward these totals, including WoFS suggesting 6" totals are not
completely out of the picture in NE NC, given 90th percentile
output (50th is about 3.25"). All in all, this is likely to
produce localized pockets of flash flooding through the early
overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_SOKFOcwosFsMiwmMi6CtEm5kUdQnLa32Norj-ilFP6kjnfor8GEhrqb8xOxloAW3FGf= 1R9OGqpYjyzullZlO7QTyoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38627767 38347731 37917627 37177623 36757602=20
35657632 34767709 33987827 33827892 33807992=20
34178055 35058069 35778044 36737996 38057907=20
38597821=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131122
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Central Missouri, far eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131121Z - 131630Z

Summary...Rapid growth of thunderstorms associated with a
shortwave will produce heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr through
late morning. Some slow movement of these cells could result in
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
rapidly expanding thunderstorms from eastern Kansas into
west-central Missouri. These thunderstorms are developing near the
edge of a stationary front that is slowly lifting northward, and
downstream of a shortwave noted on GOES-E WV imagery pivoting
across eastern KS. Forcing across MO is being aided as well by a
modest LLJ of 20-30 kts out of the SW, and a weak but diffluent
RRQ of a modest jet streak dropping south into the Central Plains.
The LLJ is also helping to draw higher PW air northward into the
region, with the recent SPC RAP analysis indicating a bubble of
1.5-1.75 inch PWs in the vicinity of the convection, which is
overlapping favorable MUCAPE of around 2000 J/kg.

The evolution this morning is challenging due to a lack of support
from high-res CAMs, but at least the 06Z HRRR and the 06Z NAMNest
have some indication of development, although both are either too
weak or displaced. However, the 00Z RRFS members, including the
operational p1 and experimental p2, p3, and p4 are initializing
much better to current radar, and suggest continued upscale growth
of this activity through late morning. The ingredients support
this evolution until the LLJ veers and weakens after around 16Z,
so the RRFS is used heavily for this MPD. The anomalous PWs and
warm cloud depths will continue to support efficient warm-rain
processes, and rainfall rates have a 30-50% chance of exceeding
1"/hr, with short-duration 2+"/hr rates also possible. Corfidi
vectors angled strongly to the right of the mean flow suggest
backbuilding of convection will occur ahead of the shortwave, and
this will lower net storm motions to just around 10 kts resulting
in 1-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts in some areas.

Although confidence in evolution is modest, the favorable
ingredients, RRFS support, and FFG that is compromised in some
areas to just 1.5"/3hrs from recent rainfall suggests at least
isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during the next
several hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49_uPBPtLXI5Ki5HGi6Eu568OpL04pt36n0XN0I9gQ973cIRiD-1dXJ9dfr_ZOt7cGQN= nFpILiqQIqg1K9dmTNePFHA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39179311 39169243 38929127 38459062 37759050=20
37279091 36799233 36739291 36839404 37079489=20
37359553 37589559 37919545 38389510 39039415=20
39119381=20

=3D =3D =3D
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