ACUS11 KWNS 280346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280346=20
SDZ000-280515-
Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 280346Z - 280515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts could occur in eastern SD,
east of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. An additional
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed pending favorable
convective trends and high enough confidence in continued severe
gusts.
DISCUSSION...The southern portions of a mature MCS continue to
rapidly progress eastward, with echo tops exceeding 50 kft at times.
The southern portion of this MCS remains well organized, and
continues to produce measured severe gusts (per recent surface
observations). Though MLCINH continues to increase, 03Z mesoanalysis
also shows 3000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately to the south of the ongoing
MCS, which is likely supporting continued severe potential. Surface temperatures and MLCAPE do decrease with eastern extent into eastern
SD, so it is unclear if/how much of the severe gust threat will
extend past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. As such,
convective intensity and wind report trends will continue to be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance over the next few hours.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8r6wDiIv79Z25i7FPsdyBvq24_wvJzgmPelJ6RL17TvpwTlqHv4_Zolouep4Mz33qr7suQXvu= R8RVAahAvKNLWAvexI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43899814 44249870 45399867 45779867 45909859 45899782
45779734 44819694 44239706 44029734 43899814=20
=3D =3D =3D
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