ACUS11 KWNS 271715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271714=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into northeast South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271714Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely erupt along the length of a surface
trough after about 18Z, with isolated severe gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from northeast NC into
northern SD, with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints to the south and
toward the coast. Visible satellite imagery show ample heating
occurring, which will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and strong instability.

Modified morning soundings indicate tall CAPE profiles with MLCAPE
in excess of 3000 J/kg, along with PWAT around 2 IN. Given the
focused area for developing and favorable diurnal timing, a isolated
severe storms cannot be ruled out with occasional wet microbursts.
While shear is weak, sufficient westerlies aloft suggest storm that
form inland will push across coastal areas later this afternoon,
possibly remaining strong.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vLu7IRjaMJsiWBg3h613VbkuthibeavmUCOXsTbtF4NjSoxGFqBkR8Dtp7lV0VQDqhSHGt2R= T83uLRflsouisaN_BI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON 33377879 33257934 33387972 33788011 34288019 34558002
34697940 35177809 35887656 36267569 35787536 35217546
34577645 33807796 33377879=20


=3D =3D =3D
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