ACUS11 KWNS 261251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261250=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-261415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Eastern/Central OK...Northern/Central
AR...South-Central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...463...

Valid 261250Z - 261415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462, 463
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts, generally from 45 to 60 mph, is
expected to continue. A downstream watch may eventually be needed
later this morning if the line is able to reintensify.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing convective line has lost some of its
structure over the past hour or so as the outflow surges southward.
Recent SGF VAD sampled the rear-inflow jet, which appears to have
lost strength in the last hour as well. These observations are
evidence of a decaying MCS, although XNA did gust to 46 kt as the
line came through around 12Z. Correspondingly, damaging gusts will
remain possible across northwest/north-central AR and south-central
MO as the outflow continues progressing southward/southeastward.

In contrast, thunderstorms have been able to maintain their
intensity within western portions of the convective line moving
across northeast OK. Gusts from 45 to 60 mph have been observed as
this outflow surges southwestward. This trend is expected to
continue for the next hour or two, with the gust front eventually
surging ahead of the deeper convection as it enters central OK.

Some intensification of this line is possible later this morning as
the very moist airmass destabilizes quickly under modest heating. A
downstream watch may be needed if trends indicate this
intensification is underway.

..Mosier.. 06/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_zQD13Nldphe7PLCyO1KB9-LbhUJiH3ShyFxFMCiKCwD_4UGTpFweuAi553BLfnAqC6SRH2E= tfdNX7r6eVMMPNL7nM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36099716 36729590 36549479 36459370 36629282 36799231
37069202 37289166 37319123 37039093 36459105 35889151
35029234 33949429 34729637 36099716=20


=3D =3D =3D
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