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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1392

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 24 08:13:45 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 240813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240813=20
    NDZ000-240945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1392
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0313 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

    Areas affected...North-Central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

    Valid 240813Z - 240945Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail remains possible with the pair of supercells
    moving southeastward across north-central North Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells continue to progress gradually
    southeastward across north-central North Dakota. Current storm
    motion with the storm over Bottineau County is around 35 kt. The
    storm farther west just crossing the international border is moving
    a bit slower, with its motion estimated at closer to 30 kt. Both of
    these supercells remain organized and intense, with recent MESH
    indicating severe hail (particularly with the westernmost cell).

    The lead/easternmost cell may begin weakening soon as it moves into
    a less buoyant airmass, although the organized character of this
    cell may allow it to persist farther east into greater stability
    than would usually be expected. The westernmost cell should be able
    to maintain it intensity for at least the next hour or so before it
    too begins to weaken. Large hail will remain possible with these
    storms, particularly the westernmost cell, for the next hour or two.
    Given the forecast weakening of these storms with eastern extent, a
    downstream watch is not currently anticipated, but convective trends
    will still be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier.. 06/24/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7156wtc9wpFCBFEq5U43k7aLVspVVK3q4pn1em-nDL1-9zh2qPQijXzxVkTzj94lUZdzS0OZl= uNpFHLjD8Y5-vfVojo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 49320220 49049952 48319896 47849977 47980102 48540242
    49320220=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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