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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1377

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 22 22:26:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 222226
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222225=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-230000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1377
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

    Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 446...

    Valid 222225Z - 230000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues.

    SUMMARY...Southwestern Wisconsin will see a locally greater risk for
    a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the warm front
    may eventually grow upscale later this afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have generally struggled to intensify,
    particularly those away from the surface low/warm front. The 18Z
    observed DVN sounding showed very poor mid-level lapse rates which
    are likely contributing to these convective trends. Still, a couple
    of discrete storms in northeastern Iowa and far southwestern
    Wisconsin have shown at least weak low-level rotation at times.
    These storms are moving into an area where surface winds are
    slightly more backed in southwestern Wisconsin. Should these storms
    maintain their intensity, they would pose a locally greater tornado
    risk over the next 1-2 hours.

    Storms along the warm front could also pose some risk for a tornado,
    though storm coverage is such that destructive interference may
    mitigate any higher potential. This activity may form a more
    organized cold pool and begin to push southeastward with time. This
    scenario has support from several CAMs. Damaging winds would be the
    main threat with this more linear activity.

    ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4h9XdbPQLUkApOYnLgTy2L62hYDwPVH8jbQvJ6IitB4a9BH7pkCZ69H9rNfy9yU-JFFFget_= N46KPY2I94gYIMGXQo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43269228 43469132 43298997 43008936 42588923 42009051
    41869136 42029198 42559260 42849273 43269228=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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