ACUS11 KWNS 211956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211955=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Much of Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211955Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected in the next couple of
hours in a region of enhanced ascent near a surface low in SW NE. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely needed for damaging winds and
large hail into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone has developed in SW NE along a
stationary front, with a region of cumulus development located just
south of the cyclone center in far NW KS. Surface temperatures have
warmed into the low 90s F, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F in NW KS,
increasing into the upper 60s F along and N of the surface boundary
in NE. SPC Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE > 1500 J/kg, with deep layer
shear in the 35-40kt range, increasing to 45 kts N of the boundary.=20


Convective initiation is expected within the 20-21Z time frame in
far NW KS and SW NE, spreading NE along the stationary front. Given
the large surface T/Td spreads, along with RAP forecast profiles
showing a deep, well-mixed boundary layer and some curvature of the
hodograph, the primary threat appears to be for damaging
straight-line winds and large hail.=20

Uncertainty remains in storm mode and coverage, especially further
southeast of the boundary. However, a severe thunderstorm watch is
likely for much of the discussion area.

..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gl7VDqOHk5JLpcnqiZJCG3Wspr7Zo2hWzzJwzc4k5QK8QHjg0dlFId9maPZspRw_pEboF2Xz= sbPEyWGfDwrmlG9ei8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40090207 40330220 40540220 40740223 40930226 41190218
41450190 41680169 41830143 41990107 42130080 42290035
42420004 42549973 42659924 42779875 42839805 42889744
42879689 42779658 42549641 42279641 42059643 41789677
41509717 41299754 41089789 40979810 40859828 40699873
40569908 40419939 40319972 40190004 40060045 39860091
39740129 39680178 39800193 40090207=20


=3D =3D =3D
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