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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1345

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 20 19:38:48 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 201938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201938=20
    MTZ000-202045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1345
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

    Areas affected...West Central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201938Z - 202045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development over the mountains has increased
    over the last half hour, with the potential for a supercell or two
    to develop in Central MT. Isolated hail and damaging winds are
    possible, especially with isolated convection that moves eastward
    into the better buoyancy and shear. WW issuance is not likely due to uncertainty in spatial coverage of severe threats.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the
    mountains in far western MT, and a more mature thunderstorm has
    developed over Judith Basin county. Due to proximity to the upper
    trough, RAP forecast profiles show cold temperatures aloft
    supportive of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear over Central and
    Eastern MT are in the range of 40-50kts, decreasing towards the west
    over the higher terrain.

    Any convection that tracks further east into Central MT should
    encounter better combinations of shear and buoyancy, resulting in an
    isolated threat for 1+ inch hail and 60+ MPH wind gusts.=20

    However, due to uncertainty in spatial coverage of organized severe
    storms, WW issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 06/20/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eiz-eWxQ35qn5tfRIr12dKGc_GUwfJXmnM9pCFgVMG-ris5nP3tYMw3eLQ7nzfkMY1cC3o-I= K9ghTJQNVpHoyrnPnc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 46841349 47991355 48831361 48991326 48751257 47661225
    47391140 47471071 47720948 47830872 47540826 46990815
    46520826 46310857 46120922 45960985 45681080 45801233
    46151329 46841349=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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