ACUS11 KWNS 182225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182225=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182225Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon
along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus
noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep
convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles,
within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable
environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region
(generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a
marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail
and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle.=20

Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern
TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough
could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail
and isolated severe gusts.=20

Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support
the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this
evening.

..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7hKJKkh8AL-ZwOtDeHcgXxvjIvNWy69739ADLTv3ECwGFPTOzjcQBszHuV_WgVaQH1XpbkZUs= O3jL9e2EbSelBaibKw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110
34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281=20


=3D =3D =3D
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