ACUS11 KWNS 182025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182024=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Pennsylvania into far southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182024Z - 182200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized concentration of damaging gusts is possible
over the next few hours along the PA/NY border region. Given the
spatially and temporally confined nature of the damaging gust
threat, a WW issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with a history of
damaging gusts (and at least one measured 50+ kt gust) has developed
over far northeastern OH. This cluster is slowly propagating
northeast as convective outflow spreads to the southeast,
overturning the ambient airmass in the process. Weak deep-layer west-southwesterly flow pivoting around the Mid-Atlantic anticyclone
suggests that the ongoing cluster, should it persist, will continue
moving east-northeast. As such, the northeast flank of the ongoing
cluster may not gust out and undercut convection for at least a few
more hours. In this time-frame, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support
stronger storm cores capable of producing a focused corridor locally
damaging gusts. However, the damaging gusts should be contained
within a small area, and convection may become outflow dominant and
undercut sooner than expected. A WW issuance remains unlikely in the short-term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for
the possibility of greater upscale growth and subsequent damaging
wind potential.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6W6thoyLC6PZ5rJ4k32oLbYEb4_fquAe0bWdkvm8Kw4Vdocf7eNKxWuDj89FMTWl67f9IVGrR= MLTcmvPKn9u29PK4AQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41608068 42008008 42387943 42487866 42177834 41667850
41387912 41257994 41278051 41338069 41608068=20


=3D =3D =3D
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