ACUS11 KWNS 180129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180129=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-180230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429...

Valid 180129Z - 180230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of instances of strong to severe
wind will continue eastward this evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms ongoing from central WI into
far southeastern MN and northeastern IA will continue to pose some
risk of strong to severe wind. Confidence in downstream risk beyond
WW429 remains uncertain. The downstream environment is moist and
unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Should storms be able to develop a strong cold pool and become
better organized within this regime, the risk for damaging wind may
continue past WW429. Thus far, this line has remained sub-severe,
with strongest reflectivity located mostly well behind its own
outflow, but trends will be monitored. A downstream watch is
unlikely at this time.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wrt7UKvyjMR_mdC03O0F_dtZZgl4_3MpYh24rVj9omtcunWl7SiGau8gy4zTrs9OR1XjgOLI= wXwa4SrbVg5y38dl2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43629184 44229118 44679074 44799063 44829015 44708980
44548973 44128967 43668971 43468972 43199032 43199122
43629184=20


=3D =3D =3D
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