ACUS11 KWNS 152306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152305=20
KSZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

Valid 152305Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts will persist into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster with a history of
producing severe gusts is moving across northeast KS. A shortwave
trough moving across central KS is likely aiding this storm cluster,
which will likely persist in some form through early evening. While
there has been some tendency for outflow to outpace the leading edge
of convection, some reintensification of this cluster will be
possible as it moves into a downstream environment characterized by
richer low-level moisture and MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg. Given
the current outflow-dominant cluster mode, severe gusts will likely
continue to be the primary threat in the short term, though the
downstream environment would also favor some potential for hail and
possibly a tornado, if any more cellular development can occur
along/ahead of the ongoing storms.

..Dean.. 06/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5QY7VC1qqs-mKyW9kfhXZ612gN1VXlkPdY5Ek2m4yujVGq2yBd6Zuz7paxMLSBDxMMsi4ANju= axp4Wmae3KJz5lNeTw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39519706 39759626 39689575 39339549 38879553 38619580
38489627 38519691 39519706=20


=3D =3D =3D
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