ACUS11 KWNS 112056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112055=20
NCZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112055Z - 112300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along outflow and/or
sea-breeze boundaries may pose a hail/wind threat this afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage will remain sparse, precluding watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing along the eastern NC
coast for much of the afternoon, but earlier convection displayed
somewhat poor organization/longevity. More recently (within the past
30 minutes), convective intensity has increased based on GOES IR
cloud top temperatures and lightning trends - likely the result of
increasing SBCAPE associated with peak diurnal warming. Forecast
soundings suggest that 30-40 knot winds within the 5-6 km layer
should elongate hodographs sufficient to promote some storm
organization of the stronger/deeper cells with an attendant risk of
large hail. Dewpoint depressions between 20-30 F are noted inland,
suggesting that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place that
may promote strong to severe downburst winds. However,
east/northeasterly storm motions to the cool side of the
sea-breeze/outflow boundaries may limit the potential for severe
downbursts. Additional convection along the boundaries appears
possible, but in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent,
thunderstorm coverage (and any associated severe hazards) should
remain very limited.

..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9dOS8JnLqjP4GBBzQzKgmTl3Oly6PBObs90LmTajcwb0nWQ3srRGlPr0PSUSKUlW7-6LtK2U= en69Jdyi7mhyVxUrQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 36307704 36547663 36547621 36337593 36047585 35747615
35457640 35197640 34997644 34917673 34907700 35097717
35397719 35487721 35887718 36307704=20


=3D =3D =3D
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