ACUS11 KWNS 041742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041741=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-041845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Far eastern Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041741Z - 041845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm complex near the TX/LA border will continue
to slowly progress east-southeastward through this afternoon. A few
stronger embedded thunderstorms on its western flank may produce
marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A remnant overnight thunderstorm complex is beginning
to show signs of localized intensification on its western flank
early this afternoon over east TX. In particular, latest infrared
satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are cooling over Shelby and
Nacogdoches Counties. This is also apparent in radar imagery. The
convective environment near and just downstream of this system
continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures now in the mid
to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, under modest
mid-level lapse rates. Although mid to upper flow is weak, large
CAPE within the hail growth zone could support brief instances of
marginally severe hail near 0.75-1.25". In addition, precipitation
loading within merging clusters in a localized corridor of
relatively steeper low level lapse rates may produce damaging wind
gusts up to 60-65 mph. Considering the weaker aforementioned flow,
narrow corridor of the severe threat, and lack of persistent storm organization, a WW does not appear likely at this time.

..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91yZP-c0gvGB1yeFlsZRRoNz9cMn7siJFLTA42dL2xq3pco-HrWRbbn5t1Vs3tlJDGgv-tdq-= euL-5ELBsJHPYjJyZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32049249 31689233 31199223 30839310 30809353 30829431
31069488 31429529 31719530 32039509 32259478 32389433
32449402 32419357 32359269 32049249=20


=3D =3D =3D
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