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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1147

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 3 08:00:46 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 030800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030800=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

    Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

    Valid 030800Z - 030930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is
    expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across
    southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards
    northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will
    be considered as it approaches.

    DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across
    southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and
    MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind
    gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This
    QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy
    advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly
    low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph
    should become more numerous into daybreak.

    While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development
    spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with
    00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK.
    Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual
    outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely.

    ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HV7Ca9jY4oV5SlFL28nA4Kpi3Z8pVkmhWa2oODayIHIsB4tEi-nLBmNWAboB2vyDPX8wRDLA= YQT9vw7Z5Kk0nlUfak$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780
    36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129
    37690139 38280065=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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