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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1131

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 2 20:01:39 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 022001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022001=20
    TXZ000-022130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

    Areas affected...The Trans Pecos into West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 022001Z - 022130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop within the next 1 to 2
    hours with a primary threat for large to very large hail. Severe
    wind gusts and a tornado or two are also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cu have started to cluster over the Davis
    mountains with more robust storm development likely within the next
    1 to 2 hours. A very moist airmass is in place which has yielded
    strong to extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Moderate
    shear (~40 knots) beneath a subtropical jet streak should support
    supercells with large to very large hail possible. Storm coverage is
    the greater question with higher confidence of a few supercells from
    the Davis Mountains southward. North of Fort Stockton, storm
    coverage may remain more sparse given the lack of cu along the
    dryline and separation from the forcing associated with the
    mid-level shortwave trough approaching the Texas Panhandle.
    Nonetheless, if any supercells form, they will pose a threat for
    large hail up to baseball sized, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a
    tornado.

    ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98dvGsnZ-6NCHekvCBNozCEGzLmztHR7YmVQCSaWEX1LyO5Ontvo5NoLBbxKBNQpuCcz3dYsf= bu27W5pyChgIS2YVYI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29190390 30680361 31960297 32460241 32560073 32100031
    31250012 29590051 29120083 29560140 29690160 29710205
    29700240 29700258 29360273 29040285 28900306 28900338
    29190390=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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