• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1129

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 2 19:33:39 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 021933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021932=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

    Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern
    Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 021932Z - 022030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity
    should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the
    next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection
    slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU
    southward to the Palmer Divide. This increase is occurring as
    ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across
    Wyoming overspreads the area. Recently, a stronger storm has
    initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while
    capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the
    initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather
    event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas.

    Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to
    3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. As stronger mid-level westerly flow --
    associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads
    eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment
    will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms.=20
    Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts
    are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within
    the rather deeply mixed boundary layer.

    ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!87DlmE8uDfTC8xXy4UDNv665JvKct_vM8G1qDEwFTZpxqhwnXSQbLNnIzVHy3lpypDGVInojO= zbahnuwleGrUlXvsZo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41000526 41490484 42460226 43200098 43049934 42239929
    40019946 39530177 39870481 41000526=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 2 19:52:10 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 021952
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021951 COR
    NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

    Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern
    Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 021951Z - 022030Z

    CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity
    should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the
    next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection
    slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU
    southward to the Palmer Divide. This increase is occurring as
    ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across
    Wyoming overspreads the area. Recently, a stronger storm has
    initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while
    capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the
    initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather
    event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas.

    Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to
    3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. As stronger mid-level westerly flow --
    associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads
    eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment
    will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms.=20
    Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts
    are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within
    the rather deeply mixed boundary layer.

    ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7UPAdaiFzecSmrL2NyULX8XrmywUuhtxM-R42mlleEh5656NaGJ73Ag4Q3xpy-xWXWghcitTT= v2pEPeZZWSLwHsnrNA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41250536 42100374 43410068 43069890 42009833 40159950
    39740044 39600414 39930503 41250536=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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