ACUS01 KWNS 312042
SWODY1
SPC AC 312041

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High
Plains into southwest Texas.

...ArkLaMiss...
Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive
cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak
shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region.
See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat
which remains across Mississippi.

...Eastern Nebraska...
A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska
with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may
continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast
Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two.

...Southwest into south-central Texas...
The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into
Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is
some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus
the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk
has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better
potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and
Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains
and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable
for storm development.

...Central into the southern High Plains...
The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into
eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional
discussion of the threat in this area.

..Bentley.. 05/31/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to
move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted
over central MS this morning with likely another convectively
augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north,
broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas
and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN
southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains.

...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley...
Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push
southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved
into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery
shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will
become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void
of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It
seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading
edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later
this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms.

Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south
of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly
unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from
south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line
hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be
isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A
weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and
cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther
south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will
support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe
gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small
clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the
overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to
a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251323
SWODY1
SPC AC 251323

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the
Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana
Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida
Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone
Helene.

...Southeast and southern Appalachians...
Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast
into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from
the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit
available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms
will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE
of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with
favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern
Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending
sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level
lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region.

...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast...
Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from
parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into
Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will
generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms
are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest
storms within this regime.

...Florida Peninsula and Keys...
Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on
the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected
to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night.
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene
details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening
low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but
more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal
instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak
overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands
remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat
could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly
into tonight.

...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana...
While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this
afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into
northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will
remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather
strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two
with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will
reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities.

...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts
of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between
a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving
warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York.
Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with
persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain
rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could
be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization
remains too low to add severe probabilities.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024





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