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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1078

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 30 17:51:28 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 301751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301750=20
    TXZ000-301945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1078
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 301750Z - 301945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected
    to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging
    gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary
    stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas.
    This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing
    convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow
    is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast.
    As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the
    afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may
    outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance
    differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it. Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place
    downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the
    afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a
    developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph
    and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized, southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be
    monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though
    timing is a bit uncertain.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7TIju44ehx6YWouqTvndV2Pu4L1wf2S-M8IkaJ75Z9GTaLuSJcZudw8T80pnwtsX394-fCDps= LGwTO8IV5ZMWHzsInI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30640074 30770095 31220136 32060142 32320128 32510111
    32499931 32489822 32209786 31549745 31099721 30809717
    30529720 30359740 30249759 30089876 30289971 30640074=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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