ACUS11 KWNS 290615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290614=20
TXZ000-290745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected...TX South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 290614Z - 290745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A narrow swath of severe hail and wind may persist through
about 3 AM CDT before likely weakening. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that produced multiple golf-ball
size hail reports in the past hour across Roosevelt County, NM has
evolved into a supercell bowing structure in the South Plains west
of Lubbock. CAM guidance has handled this particular area of
convection quite poorly, with successive runs of the HRRR
initializing and then immediately weakening the cell within the
first hour. MRMS MESH values have recently diminished to around 2
inches as the bowing structure evolved which suggests the potential
for significant severe hail is diminishing. Despite the likely
elevated character, a swath of severe wind gusts may occur until the
cell finally subsides, which was recently confirmed by a 62 mph gust
at the Morton West TX Mesonet site. This appears likely to occur as
it shifts away from the instability axis over eastern NM and
relatively weaker deep-layer shear with eastern extent per
time-series comparison of area VWP data.
..Grams/Thompson.. 05/29/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ANB7IvWfpHlo7iLDeRPt3fxZ7S1pvnj3HRij4D4s7IFGK4n-NODlaibq5wwewkZ2y6cM7VsU= Jrw_675Toqc5KyJlxk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
LAT...LON 34030273 33960224 33870165 33490122 33120127 33010155
33060196 33310266 33820284 34030273=20
=3D =3D =3D
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