• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 28 17:32:09 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 281732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281731=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-281930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

    Areas affected...coastal NC and the Outer Banks

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281731Z - 281930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small
    hail are possible through the afternoon/early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite early
    this afternoon along the North Carolina coast, and storms will
    likely develop in the next couple of hours. This activity is
    developing along a weak surface boundary. Strong heating and a very
    moist boundary layer (dewpoints 68-73 F) are contributing to MLCAPE
    around 1500-2000 J/kg. Stronger effective shear will remain north
    and west of the area, but 20-30 kt should be sufficient for
    organized updrafts. Locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph will be
    possible, along with small hail in stronger cells. A watch is not
    expected given the marginal nature of the severe risk and storms
    likely to move quickly offshore.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dOrW7wq1Sk1xoZBYjtI6uuq7dFvZYbElH5vEwz117DdkDUSK8pqCuyeKC0-LTVsfi2OFUH39= Kct4DesrDbSusOt0Sw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34127874 35717592 35727538 35157524 34387627 33647732
    33457827 33587872 34127874=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)