ACUS11 KWNS 271949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271948=20
TXZ000-272115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271948Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
strong gusts will be possible into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating to near 100 F has allowed for some
mixing of stronger boundary-layer dewpoints over portions of the
area. However, dewpoints generally still remain in the 60s F. Very
steep midlevel lapse rates also are in place. This is supporting
moderate to strong instability within a strongly sheared
environment. Furthermore, visible satellite imagery shows
deepening/vertically developing cumulus across the MCD area.
Forecast soundings depict deep mixing with inverted-v low-level
thermodynamic profiles. Given a dry EML, this may support sporadic
severe gusts. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs suggest
large hail will be possible.

Convection has already develop across northeast Mexico and will
approach the Rio Grande in the next few hours. This convection also
will pose a severe risk if it is maintained across the Rio Grande
into TX. Some uncertainty exists regarding coverage and eastward
extent of severe potential, but at least a narrow corridor of large
hail and strong gust potential is expected. A watch will likely be
needed in the next hour or so.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Djzs1rK_6xlzLqgBE8Vgs-q_lphGetSvV5_cE-8jTyvjH23S468edRjHyQFGofSKNpxBbE-C= ufmRUA-AuiS6WEM_gk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29420147 30000097 30770016 31349928 31179844 30769817
30259830 28839949 27930040 27900059 28200077 29420147=20


=3D =3D =3D
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