ACUS11 KWNS 251540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251539=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-251815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
and far southwest New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251539Z - 251815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and some hail may accompany
the strongest storms. The severe threat should be isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity ahead of a surface trough over eastern OH, with agitated
CU becoming apparent ahead of the storms. Strong diurnal heating and
modest warm-air/moisture advection amid modest lapse rates is
boosting MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg via tall, thin vertical profiles (per
latest RAP forecast soundings). These forecast soundings also depict
small low-level hodographs, but with mid-level elongation. As such,
stronger multicell clusters and line segments that can become
established may contain hail (with a couple bouts of severe hail
possible). Damaging gusts may also occur with the stronger storm
cores. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ctdPMc6N5TQRI_bXmdFLSDuiBC5mhbkCn8CFlTYWoRw4-U6cm_vYJJDVjRXXJD3ho5KooPMJ= _ZD3wdXlAdPFDc_cSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40498164 41748061 42667893 42657854 42137822 41297814
40597828 40077885 39797939 39718011 39748061 39918109
40498164=20


=3D =3D =3D
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