ACUS11 KWNS 242239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242239=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Western Arkansas...Central and
Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

Valid 242239Z - 250045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
increase in coverage over the next couple of hours from northeast
Texas into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth
shows scattered strong to severe thunderstorms located in and around
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro extending northward into southern
Oklahoma. Short-term model forecasts suggest that convective
coverage will increase, as the complex moves northeastward across
western parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. Relatively
straight hodographs will be favorable for storm splits. The airmass
is extremely unstable with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
F, and MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range.=20
In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear
near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km, estimated by the RAP, will be favorable for supercells with
large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible with the strongest of storms. Wind damage will also be
likely with supercells, and organized intense multicells.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lkO6Xx-gBfBH2qIHjVc5Qq1FBbR7uGO-2Ifzy6l7AmLO-thYhe-WmXJwZ8TKayjQnaHxLfKK= wsI-9LkiTnC2a3ubA0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 35179645 36089515 36179405 35979344 35489310 34459318
33089338 31789432 30909676 30719759 30809825 31059850
31529854 32399805 35179645=20


=3D =3D =3D
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