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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0897

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 22 20:39:32 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 222039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222038=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-222215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0897
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

    Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast
    TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...287...

    Valid 222038Z - 222215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286, 287 continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail from 2-3" remains the primary risk from
    southwest Texas across central Texas into northeast Texas. A few
    tornadoes are possible as well, particularly across southwest Texas.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues over Coleman County
    Texas. This storm is the most substantial development within the
    very unstable and strongly sheared airmass extending from southwest
    TX across central TX into northeast TX. Additional development near
    the surface low in the Permian Basin has recently intensified,
    acquiring supercellular characteristics as it moved into Sterling
    County TX. This storm may begin to interact with outflow from the
    Coleman County storm, resulting in some potential for additional
    strengthening. Vertical vorticity along this boundary could aid in tornadogenesis.

    Robust updrafts capable of very large hail up to 2-3" remain
    possible. The large anvil cast by the Coleman County storm could
    have some influence on where this additional initiation occurs,
    perhaps shifting the more favorable initiation zone to the edges of
    the anvil where differential heating is more likely. Large hail
    remains possible with left splits over northwest TX, with at least
    some potential for in-situ development along the cold front as well.

    ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-NyTTViNvz2mF04vMMNhaX4fhq_bWa0BVJ-XkTJxP6FX19TKjBTW_vdql8MNeuUQvCZ1oqPRL= KDYHX01Wn7AfzbHLXU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32190117 33069910 33349803 33739637 32959514 31349718
    30910140 32190117=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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