ACUS11 KWNS 221834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221834=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast AR...Western/Middle TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 221834Z - 222000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...A transition to a more linear mode may be underway across
far northeast Arkansas, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
severe hazard across western/middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms across far northeast AR
have undergone notable intensification and organization over the
past hour, with some trends suggesting an organized MCS may be
evolving. Recent surface observation at JBR sampled a 61 kt gust
when the relatively small supercell moved over. This cell has
continued eastward, maintaining a strong velocity signature while
also trending towards a more forward-propagating structure. The cell
to the west of NQA currently has a similar velocity signature, while
also increasing its forward propagation as well. These trends,
coupled with strengthening westerly flow aloft, appear to favor a
transition to a more linear mode, perhaps relatively soon. This
would also signal shift in the primary hazard from hail to damaging
gusts.

..Mosier.. 05/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96EEn7Znh_WW58WNMjEzXlSCtlViPAl-Ox9l172qZGWwoFJx7XqoRB1-1Hz3033NFRA8WCYk2= 08zHiVkN6OY4KhdjpQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35719085 36298980 36538863 36648778 36378736 35698761
34948904 34579098 35719085=20


=3D =3D =3D
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