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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0872

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 21 17:46:20 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 211746
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211745=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-211915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0872
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1245 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of North Texas into southeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211745Z - 211915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated storms will have some potential to intensify and
    produce large hail. Uncertainty in these storms being maintained
    make watch issuance fairly uncertain. Convective trends will be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have developed in North Texas. These
    storms are not captured by any CAMs. Based on the 12Z OUN/DFW
    soundings, this activity is most likely rooted somewhere between
    800-700 mb--driven by very modest influence from the approaching
    shortwave trough in the southern High Plains as well as weak 850 mb
    warm advection. The primary uncertainty is how long this activity
    will last as the low-level jet is expected to weaken into the
    afternoon. Should these storms intensify, the very steep lapse
    rates, strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 55-60 kts
    will support supercell structures capable of large hail (1-2
    inches). Boundary-layer destabilization still appears it will
    another few hours. With this activity moving quickly northeast, it
    is quite uncertain if storms could root near/at the surface.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8G0x6Z5Ok990jqO0siSlR2gDiJNT5Yo2Wkt7JU_kjZHk0vNHRPgUCSrpGgi5eeLnUFkoF1RB9= HgB8e351kvg1cxfBbg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32759772 32819785 32999788 33549772 34069762 34479735
    34679706 35079581 35079495 34749481 34069527 33439652
    32759748 32759772=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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