ACUS11 KWNS 210224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210223=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 210223Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of producing large hail up to
2.0 inches in diameter remain possible across northern IA this
evening. Damaging wind gusts could also accompany collapsing
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete, right moving supercells have
evolved this evening over Cherokee, Clay, and Palo Alto Counties.
Recent FSD VAD profiler data indicates deep layer shear magnitudes
around 50 kt. Although slightly weaker shear is likely present
further east and southeast, where ongoing supercells are persisting,
the discrete nature of them along a nearly stationary boundary may
be supporting localized storm pressure perturbations capable of
significant updraft velocities. In addition, steep mid-level lapse
rates/large CAPE within the hail growth zone (00Z OAX sounding) is
also contributing larger hail potential. However, as MLCINH
continues to increase updraft strength should slowly diminish and
hail sizes should decrease. The severe threat will continue through
the late evening hours along and just behind the surface front,
where some elevated supercells will also be possible.

..Barnes.. 05/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-SW3ZMO58IQLbaDRb_L4K2C2NLsVN3feHplwIxNad8c7Vcfkep7ZIqfE_5CblHWYMzeeflJyf= v02z2egtsVLNgDukQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43289652 43379589 43559581 43569547 43909542 44249439
44279275 44369242 44189199 43759173 43359190 43029245
42879296 42809338 42609369 42419415 42279456 42149501
42299640 42769660 43289652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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