ACUS11 KWNS 192255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192255=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern KS...far southeast NE...western
MO...southwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 192255Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to
accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of
the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will
be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A
downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread
severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm
clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by
mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should
spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the
Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to
low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may
mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of
higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north
from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this
evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A
plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across
eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe
wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4O6NIxO3JKL-HYNq2CNCqwx3o2pr7SiAWDyDPNNMyT_V63iAW6tn-UjA2vcLuE_3FwiMpjqxJ= QU2mxyWXwME0G3JZT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313
38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658=20


=3D =3D =3D
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