ACUS11 KWNS 192217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192217=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...much of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 192217Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to
continue to gradually evolve and organize during the next couple of
hours, with severe wind gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph becoming
the most prominent severe hazard by 7-8 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Embedded within 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow, an ongoing intense supercell has been rightward (eastward)
propagating toward the Salina KS vicinity. This motion is roughly
coincident with a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented warm
frontal zone, extending along/north of the Interstate 70 corridor
into northeastern Kansas. Given enhanced forcing for ascent
associated with low-level convergence and warm advection along this
boundary, and fairly sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point
spreads to the south of the front, further upscale growth and
evolution into a more prominent bowing structure with strong
damaging surface gusts becoming the primary severe hazards seems
probable through 23-01Z.

At the same time, as a low-amplitude short wave trough continues to
gradually emerge from the southern Rockies, intensifying storms
along the dryline north of Garden City KS into the Clinton-Sherman
OK vicinity may continue to increase along consolidating eastward
propagating outflows, aided by inflow of seasonably moist air
characterized by large CAPE to around 3000 J/kg. In the presence of
seasonably moderate to strong shear, this activity seems likely to
gradually organize. The evolution of one or two increasingly
prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale vortices appears
possible, with the quasi-stationary front north of Dodge City into
the Russell/Salina vicinities one potential focus for strong,
damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 05/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68yl6RIAALQuOwgjgKp8t3enrzOlUZwouf4xKJFeyJsgbaVVCJT5bBxnoCrImlk4Ty1AlQga8= Apoxr2KsuO_6VqYy0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39669764 39879551 38509541 37709738 36459817 36049924
36329991 37309965 38230020 38669959 39149846 39669764=20


=3D =3D =3D
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