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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0815

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 17 19:32:08 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 171932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171931=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0815
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

    Areas affected...southern Alabama into southwest Georgia...and parts
    of the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171931Z - 172200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase in coverage and intensity over
    the next few hours, with damaging winds most likely. A brief tornado
    or two will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
    roughly from far southern MS across the AL/FL border and toward the
    GA/FL border. Observational trends currently indicate little change
    in wind direction along the front, however, some northward
    progression of the boundary is expected as southerly winds over 30
    kt persist just off the surface.

    The 18Z LIX sounding shows a very moist and unstable air mass with
    PWAT over 2.00" and SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer
    westerly flow exists as well with around 50 kt at 500 mb.=20

    Latest radar trends show convection increasing along the stationary
    front from southern MS into southern AL. Echo tops are gradually
    increasing, and this trend should continue, especially with cells
    near or just on the warm side of the boundary.=20

    Given moderate westerly flow and favorable deep layer shear, a few
    bowing structures are anticipated, producing damaging winds.
    Enhanced shear along the east-west oriented front may support
    storm-scale rotation with a brief tornado or two possible through
    early evening as cells evolve east.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98rrFO7B2edO1K0ofKwrMkGDW3tpRfu-EAtB8OILZkhvD6jPzla67ZpTQZADGyjbVLkdY7gEy= GmpuL7QQ1DQWdCp95I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30938835 31268789 31558723 31788463 31898355 31528317
    30638331 30278371 30388569 30408725 30328774 30438833
    30688837 30938835=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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