ACUS11 KWNS 142226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142226=20
TXZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142226Z - 150000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe gusts and an instance of
marginally severe hail may accompany any storms that can develop and
mature. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to initiate
across portions of western TX ahead of a diffuse dryline, amid a
synoptic environment characterized by weak forcing. Surface
temperatures are reaching the mid 90s F in spots, which is breaching
convective temperatures amid a deep (sfc-600 mb), uncapped boundary
layer. Forecast soundings suggest modestly curved and elongated
hodographs may support a transient, high-based supercell for any
updraft that can intensify and become established. Within the deep
boundary layer, lapse rates exceed 9 C/km, suggesting that isolated
instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail may occur with any
supercell structure given the aforementioned shear profiles.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Kpup7DVxGCwrzmFkZPqeCM4VOetHJoM5tw5YT891D_VjxOOdpcvNqHnm8vHZe93LKIZWM2Pa= XWX9-gWcrEDXjmAEYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 31539905 31209922 31050042 31020149 32630218 34430252
35120231 34910127 33840031 32409936 31539905=20


=3D =3D =3D
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