ACUS11 KWNS 131859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131859=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-132030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Florida panhandle and northern
Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 236...

Valid 131859Z - 132030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 236 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds near 60 to 70 mph and a
couple of tornadoes will continue across northern Florida through
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment over northern Gulf County and and
far southern Calhoun County previously showed signs of mesovortices
trying to develop as it progressed east southeastward. The TLH VAD
profile indicates low level shear upstream of this segment should
continue to support the potential for such vortices. Recent radar
trends, however, suggest the aforementioned feature is struggling to
maintain itself considering upstream moist convection and decreasing
surface based instability. Nonetheless, low level moisture advection
along and south of the stationary boundary will keep LCLs relatively
low. In addition, a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
the stationary boundary within the eastern extreme of the watch
where increased insolation is present. A couple of tornadoes remain
possible within this environment, and wind gusts near 60 to 70 mph
may accompany clusters or line segments.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_hIXbArpaMVIe6YlHnNuZRc6hQUm4E396x5e3TKnyJdYxNH7I2iksfw4s3PIWe2zCov8SFPjZ= QYd3vQx4tbCL1oFvpU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29738539 30098540 30268522 30648473 30708440 30618326
30438320 30278321 30148314 30028300 29878289 29678293
29548297 29368306 29308315 29398338 29738539=20


=3D =3D =3D
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