3,000ft peaks of the Adirondacks. Below 2,000ft, snowfall amountswill struggle to top 2" in the 1,000-2,000ft elevation layer, with
5,000ft. WPC probabilities do suggest low-moderate chances(20-40%) for >4" of snowfall on Wednesday along the windward side
4" of snowfall in the Washington Cascades and peaks above 5,000ft.The taller volcanic peaks of the Washington Cascades sport
70%) for snowfall totals surpassing 12". In fact, the Uinta sportmoderate chances (40-60%) for >18" of snowfall through Saturday
12" additional in the San Juans of CO.
6" high over the Tushar/Wasatch/Uinta. Then much of Tuesdayincludes heavy snow over WY terrain including the Wind River,
5,000ft is expected in the Blue, Sawtooth, Boise, and TetonMountains.
70%) for >12" of snowfall at elevations above 4,000ft. Farthersouth, the Sierra Nevada and Siskiyou sport moderate-to-high odds
50%. Light snow is probable into the I-25 corridor but amounts arequite uncertain. Accumulating snow is favored farther south into
70%) over the Little Belt Mountains in MT as well as the Big SnowMountains due to the favorable northerly flow. Lighter snow is
9,000ft in the Colorado Rockies. In fact, there are moderateprobabilities (40-60%) for >12" above 10,000ft in central Colorado
6,000ft, through Wednesday afternoon. Some of the tallest peaks ofthese ranges could surpass 24" locally.
70%.
4" in the central Sierra Nevada between Thursday evening andFriday morning. By Friday afternoon, the upper trough will track
4" of snowfall along the Sierra Nevada above 6,000ft, thenorthern Great Basin above 6,000ft, and the Absaroka, Tetons, and
70%) for snowfall >8" are forecast along the ridgelines of thenorthern Great Basin above 6,000ft and the Absaroka, Tetons, and
4" of snowfall over north-central ND. It is worth noting that theWPC PWPF does show low chances (10-30%) for snowfall >8", and near
750 kg/m/s IVT on NAEFS would be above the 97.5 climatologicalpercentile Tuesday afternoon), but intense winds along the
6" is 20-70% over much of ND west of the Red River Basin and northof I-94.
12" in east-central WV above 2,000ft in elevation.
7,000ft. In totals, most of the central and southern Sierra Nevadatallest peaks above 9,000ft possibly approaching 3ft of snow.
7,000ft can expect an additional 1-2ft of snowfall with the=20
12" from the Laurel Highlands on south through east-central WV.=20Some guidance shows low chances (10-30%) for snowfall totals >24"=20
70%) on D1 for more than 8 inches of snow. Event total snowfall=20could peak around 2 feet in central WV.
40%.
70%) for at least a foot of total snowfall over the next threedays across the Sierra Nevada, Shasta Siskiyous of northern
70%) above 6000ft. By D2, the next heavy snow event enters theWest as another surge of moisture will aim toward the Sierra with
12" are high (50-90%) through Saturday night. On the preferred=20snow belts in WNWly flow on southern shore of Lake Superior and in=20
12" are moderate (30-50%) and moderate for >6" for Day 2.
70% above 1500ft or so.=20
4" snow tonight for mainly the western slopes of the Great SmokeyMtns.
4,000ft) to the region. Some moisture spilling over into theColumbia Basin could also have boundary layer temps that are sub-
5,000ft) of the Cascades and Olympics through Saturday afternoon.WPC PWPF shows low-to-moderate (30-50%) chances for >4" above
8") is likely over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks into theGreen and White Mountains due to upslope flow. In addition, the=20
0.1" accretion) in localized parts of the Columbia Basin on=20Saturday that could result in slick travel for motorists.
50% above about 5000ft or so, mostly in the Lewis Range andacross northern ID, the Blue Mountains, and into northwestern WY.
6,000ft elevations of the Lewis Range, Blue, and BitterrootMountains in central Idaho will be favored for similar totals.
70%) for at least 8 inches of snow above about 3,500ft while themore remote areas above 5,000ft likely receive over 12" of
70%) over much of the northern shore of the Michigan U.P. andalong the western coast of Michigan's Mitten. For at least 8
70%) but confined to the Shasta/Trinity region of northern CA andthe highest peak of the WA/OR Cascades. By D3, high WPC
0.1" of freezing rain are highest 12Z Sun-12Z Mon (Day 2.5) with70-80% over the Laurels of PA down into the MD Panhandle with >20%
6" have not wavered much compared to the previous forecast withthe general probability maxima tied to the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, the Green and White Mountains of VT/NH, and Western
80%) for moderate impacts in the WA Cascades and into thefoothills. Here, WPC probabilities for 0.1 inches of ice are
80%) for moderate impacts in the WA Cascades and into thefoothills. Here, WPC probabilities for 0.1 inches of ice are
6") will likely be confined to elevations >5,000ft in theOlympics and Cascades. In the Blue and Sawtooth Mountains, >6"
6") will likely be confined to elevations >5,000ft in theOlympics and Cascades. In the Blue and Sawtooth Mountains, >6"
90th climatological percentile precipitable water values into thenorthwestern U.S.. This AR will neither be accompanied by an
5,000ft peaks of the Blue Mountains, above 7,000ft in the SalmonRiver and Sawtooth Mountains of Idaho, and the Tetons in Wyoming.
300 kg/m/s IVT (>90th climatological percentile values via NAEFS)oriented at Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes. An expansive
300 kg/m/s IVT (>90th climatological percentile values via NAEFS)oriented at Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes. An expansive
4" in northern Michigan and over the thumb of Michigan, while someparts of northern Michigan also have moderate chances (40-60%) for
8" above 7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada, above 5,000ft in the Cascades/Olympics/Blue Mountains, and above 8,000ft in the Tetons.
300 kg/m/s IVT) into the region which maintains sub-freezingboundary layer temperatures as the precipitation arrives. This
8" above 5,000ft in the Cascades/Olympics/Blue Mountains.
5,000ft and in the Sawtooth/Salmon River Mountains >6,000ft. WPCprobabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >8" at
1,000 kg/m/s off the Northern California coast, directing ananomalous PW plume (>90th climatological percentile) throughout the
70%) above 4000ft or so in the Cascades and above 5000ft or soin northeastern OR to central ID.
70%) above about 7000ft in the interior. The active pattern looksto continue into the medium range.
8" over the Wasatch up through the Tetons and again for theSawtooth.
1500ft Wednesday into Wednesday night. To the west, colder airwill rush in behind the system across the still mild and mostly
6" are 40-80% from the PA Laurels through the Potomac andAllegheny Highlands west from the Allegheny Front. The progression
500 kg/m/s IVT values (which top the 90th climatologicalpercentile) are direct over northern California and as far inland
12" are the Cascades and Tetons where they will; contend with acombination of the best synoptic-scale ascent, upslope ascent, and
8" through Sunday AM, while chances for >8" in the far eastern=20Michigan U.P. are lower chances (10-30%). Snowfall rates in these=20
70%) for at least 4" of snow from southwest Montana to northeastSouth Dakota. The WSSI shows widespread Minor Impacts through the=20
80% on an axis from Oswego to Rome with the potential for a localmaximum exceeding 2 feet in Oswego County.
50% above ~5000-6000ft or so (west to east) where two-day totals=20could exceed 18-24 inches above 6000-7000ft (40-70% chance).=20
4" along the Cumberland Plateau with similar odds for >6" of=20snowfall in the >3,000ft elevations of the Smokeys. Over south-=20
0.25" ice accumulations from the Atlanta metro through centralSouth Carolina, which would cause downed tree limbs and power
4" along the entire MN Arrowhead coast, with the northern-mostsection of the Arrowhead even having moderate chances (40-60%) for
4" through 06Z Tuesday.
70%) of at least 4 inches of snow today.
50% over the Keweenaw Peninsula and over the eastern U.P. on NWflow, as well as into northwestern Lower MI. East of Lake Erie, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% from Erie, PA
1 (and even >3) suggesting the possibility of bursts of snow with=20sharply reduced visibility leading to near whiteout conditions. CAM
6" are 60-90% from the Laurels of PA through the Allegheny=20Highlands in WV.
70%) for snowfall totals >6" from the Laurel Highlands of=20southern Pennsylvania and near the MD/WV border to the Allegheny=20
8" in parts of southern New England. The DC/Baltimore metro areas=20sport low chance probabilities (10-30%) for >4" of snowfall at the
4" are 40-80% in the U.P. and portions of the western L.P., thenhigher on Wly flow for Day 3 with 40-70% over the same U.P./L.P.
4" over far northern VA/northern MD, the Philly and NYC metros aswell as a stripe of southeast New England generally west from
0.01" of ice accumulation with low chances (<20%) for ice amounts=20greater impact potential given the subfreezing surfaces throughout=20
0.1". While exact amounts are unclear, there is no denying the=20
18" in some of the South Towns near Buffalo and in the Tug HillPlateau. The event total snowfall in the Tug Hill is likely to
500 kg/m/s, >90th climatological percentile per NAEFS) will bedirected in the direction of an Arctic-airmass that, per NAEFS,
1"/hr snowfall rates possible. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for >4" of snowfall from the lower TX/LA=20
30%) over the Keweenaw, western Lower Michigan, and southeast ofLake Ontario.
70%) while additional modest LES occurs east of Lakes Erie andOntario. Locally 1-2 feet is possible in some areas through the
70%) while additional modest LES occurs east of Lakes Erie andOntario. Locally 1-2 feet is possible in some areas through the
90%) for more than 6 inches along the Cascades of WA and OR, the=20Olympics, Northern Rockies, Salmon River, and Sawtooth Ranges.
0.1". The Probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P) shows low-to-moderate=20chances (30-50%) for Minor Impacts in all of these aforementioned=20
0.1" in the 20-30% range. Farther north, boundary layertemperatures will remain below freezing and allow for snow to be
7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada, and >5,000ft in the Trinity/Shasta.
4" for the rest of the Arrowhead of MN and over most of the U.P.
4" are forecast between 40-70% across the Door Peninsula of WI,extending east through the northern half of the Lower MI peninsula
4" of snowfall for areas east of the Lewis Range and surrounding=20the Big Snowy/Little Belt mountains on east through northwest=20
0.25". Most ice accumulations that are observed will generallyfall below 0.25" but even amounts around 0.1" can result in
300 kg/m/s (>99.5 climatological percentile at 18Z Fri) and theseranges placement beneath the left-exit region of a 90kt 500mb jet=20
300 kg/m/s (>99.5 climatological percentile at 18Z Fri) and theseranges placement beneath the left-exit region of a 90kt 500mb jet=20
70%) for 6+ inches along the SE lake shore of Ontario, as well asacross the Keweenaw Peninsula of the U.P. of MI.
70%) for warning-level icing (above 0.25") of ice in SW VA, withlocally as much as 0.5" of damaging ice possible.
70%) for 6+ inches along the SE lake shore of Ontario, as well asacross the Keweenaw Peninsula of the U.P. of MI.
70%) for warning-level icing (above 0.25") of ice in SW VA, with=20locally as much as 0.5" of damaging ice possible.
70%. Though that area will see snow ending on Monday, the lake=20effect machine will keep cranking for the next few days as an upper
50% around Billings up to Great Falls.=20
8". WPC probabilities for at least 8" are >50% over southeastern=20KS and southern MO. Farther south, ice probs for at least 0.10" are
30% around the Ouachita Mountains.=20
200 kg/m/s IVT stretching from the CA coast to the Front Range ofthe Central Rockies Sunday afternoon and through Monday morning (values
0.01" of ice over central NC and north-central SC. These areas=20would be most at risk for treacherous driving conditions on=20
70%) for warning-level icing (above 0.25") of ice in SW VA, with=20locally as much as 0.6" of damaging ice possible through Thursday
30%) in the Laurel Highlands and parts of the Poconos.
40%) from northern MO to northern IL and across central Lower=20Michigan.
90%) for 12+ inches across much of the Sierra, generally above=204000 ft, and above 70% (above 3000 ft) in the=20
8" are sufficiently within the 40-70% range across the HudsonValley with the epicenter of the highest probs located over the
8ft at the highest peaks). Snowfall rates will lessen into early=20Friday (as SLRs rise a bit) and end completely by Friday night as=20
8" of snow.
50% over southwestern VA northward into central PA, where there=20are also probs for >0.25" icing (30-50%).=20
60% probs). By day 3, snowfall will be light with most areas=20seeing less than 4 inches of snow.
70%) over western WY and the high peaks of the northern CO=20Rockies.=20
70%) over the higher terrain above 6000ft closer to the coast,=207000-8000ft over the Great Basin, and 9000ft over CO/WY.=20
6" 40-80% around the Bitterroots on the ID/MT border,northeastern NV ranges, the Wasatch, Uinta and Tetons. Snow=20
70%) along the Wasatch, higher terrain of the Uintas, and intoportions of the CO Rockies.
90%) in both the ECENS and GEFS for IVT to exceed 500 kg/m/s.This plume will be advected eastward thanks to increasingly
90%) exceed 500 kg/m/s, with potentially 3 consecutive days ofIVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s surging onshore beginning this evening.
90%) exceed 500 kg/m/s, with potentially 3 consecutive days ofIVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s surging onshore beginning this evening.
90%) exceed 500 kg/m/s, with 3 consecutive days of IVT exceeding250 kg/m/s surging onshore beginning this evening. Within this
6" intersecting the Tug Hill area between Watertown to Pulaski andpoints inland. This is the primary zone for heavy snow within the
6" in the Tug Hill and Adirondacks neighboring the Tug Hillthrough Saturday morning. Similar probabilities for >4" of snowfall
8" at elevations above 9,000ft. Farther north, temperatures willgradually cool as a cold front ushering in Canadian high pressure
97.5th climatological percentile over eastern CO early Tuesday=20morning. This is a byproduct of the exceptional 500-700mb moisture=20
8" in the northern Colorado Rockies above 9,000ft. Along thePalmer Divide, WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
4" in central Nevada on east to the Wasatch and Uinta through 12ZThursday. Periods of snow are forecast to continue across the=20
1"/hr snowfall rates within this band that could stretch as far=20south as the Kansas/Missouri border. There are some hi-res
12" from the Hurons of Michigan's U.P. on west to the Michigan=20U.P.northern Wisconsin border. The Huron Mountains actually have=20
70%) of exceeding 6 inches from far NW Iowa through the TwinCities of MN and into the western U.P of MI. Locally 12+ inches of
400 kg/m/s over portions of the Desert Southwest that are toppingthe 99th climatological percentile by 00Z Thursday. This IVT will
70%) of 6+ inches from the Wind Rivers through the Laramie Rangeand into much of the CO Rockies where heavy snow rates are likely=20
70%) across the Olympics, Cascades, and Shasta/Trinity region of=20northern CA< with lower probabilities below 50% continuing into the
70%) across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Olympics inWA/OR, as well as the Salmon, Siskiyou and Mount Shasta regions of
4" through Friday afternoon.
1"/hr, while the Arrowhead, contending with easterlies off of LakeSuperior, provides a lake-enhanced fetch of moisture into the
4" in the Tug Hill on Tuesday.
8000ft) Wednesday afternoon, but will quickly drop to around4500ft Wednesday night. These lower snow levels are maintained
8" are 30-60% for the highest Klamath and OR/WA Cascades only.However, the lower snow levels and increased precip rates make Day
0.1" in these areas with low chances (10-30%) for >0.25",especially in the more elevated terrain. In terms of snowfall, WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall
70%) for snowfall totals >24". Most of these ranges above6,000ft are currently forecast to see localized amounts between 3-4
0.25" in these areas with low chances (10-30%) for >0.5" acrossparts of northern WI. In terms of snowfall, WPC probabilities show
8" are 50-90% in the southern OR Cascades, the Klamath/TrinityAlps, and northern/central Sierra Nevada with snow levels of
0.25" of ice accumulation as far west as the MN/WI border andacross the southern tier of Michigan's U.P.. All of these areas can
70%) for snowfall totals >12". Most of these ranges above 6,000ftare currently forecast to see localized amounts between 2-3 feet
0.25" of ice accumulation as far west as the MN/WI border andacross the southern tier of Michigan's U.P.. All of these areas can
70%) for snowfall totals >12". Most of these ranges above 6,000ftare currently forecast to see localized amounts between 2-3 feet
50% exist on Days 3-4. Both snow amounts, along with snow loadand blowing snow, are likely to be hazards that the Northern Plains
50% exist on Days 3-4. Both snow amounts, along with snow load=20and blowing snow, are likely to be hazards that the Northern Plains
0.1" through Thursday morning. By midday Thursday, rain will be=20the primary precipitation type throughout most of northern New=20
1"/hr and accumulating snow despite the early-April sun are along=20the MN Arrowhead and north shores of Lakes Superior, as well as a=20
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