ACUS11 KWNS 121338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121337=20
TXZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central into East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121337Z - 121530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with
elevated storms in central Texas. Gradual intensification is
possible as is additional storm development. Timing of this is not
yet clear. A watch is possible depending on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Modest warm advection at low levels and gradual height
falls from the approaching trough from the west will likely continue
to support storm maintenance/development along and near a warm front
stretching from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Edwards Plateau.
Effective shear of greater than 50 kts and steep lapse rates
observed in the 12Z DRT sounding suggest that storms, at least
occasionally supercellular, would be capable of producing large
hail. An isolated damaging gust is possible, but should be limited
by the presently stable conditions near the surface. With time,
continued theta-e advection and muted surface heating should help to destabilize the environment and storms will eventually become near/surface-based. Storm coverage is uncertain in the short term,
but a watch may eventually become necessary as coverage and
intensity is expected to increase by the afternoon. Trends will be
monitored.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4yGYjSagace4ONpMHzuVD12pzHMbFmAyoFMaWJVXX93hnCipCYjTdGbpfn70gMQfVHvKP_wVC= 87sIm2ZMszWN-v7irc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30839838 31459817 31719525 31389457 30949470 30509593
30369733 30469769 30839838=20


=3D =3D =3D
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