ACUS11 KWNS 111859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111858=20
NMZ000-112100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111858Z - 112100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may
produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across
portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this
has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few
low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and
around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for
large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will
encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said,
storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west
of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in
the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level
turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial
extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense
storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6QpB20UpSXC-8Kj2BpkRrRaSg1-IrtJKDmqh9KrAhQQHAGxKMPN4K0gWZ-RliQQvQ_Hyp0gxx= eEHFRI0K3SSMaq4zSE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518
34190554 34220613 34980722=20


=3D =3D =3D
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