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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0688

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 8 04:08:07 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 080408
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080407=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0688
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1107 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast Texas into Northeast Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080407Z - 080600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm maturation/intensity remains uncertain, but the
    environment would support large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a
    low-end tornado risk.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, IR satellite shows deepening
    cumulus clouds with some having produced lightning recently. This
    development is occurring along the the diffuse cold front.
    Convergence along this boundary is quite weak and the low-level jet
    is not expected to be overly strong as well. Further, upper-level
    forcing will be nebulous at best. All that said, it is not clear
    whether convection will be able to mature/intensify. The observed
    00Z LZK sounding showed over 2500 J/kg with 46 kts of effective
    shear. Should development occur, the environment would be supportive
    of large hail (perhaps up to 2 in.), isolated severe gusts, and
    perhaps a tornado. The tornado threat will be somewhat conditional
    as CIN will increase with time, though slowly given how moist the
    environment is. Given the uncertainties and likely limited storm
    coverage, a watch is not currently anticipated. Trends will continue
    to be monitored, however.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/08/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7i-HPFTravcsUcHAlA2jTAADVQcax0ge6YDXD9Glf6Nuzw3_wYKOKiMdBFcvApw2L0b7anzTk= Sn7kpG2UV0j3UHG8zw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33529285 32579496 32639556 32979582 33859523 34469398
    34639363 35919164 36279074 36049043 35819028 35469030
    35029060 33529285=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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