• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0678

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 7 19:06:31 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 071906
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071905=20
    TXZ000-072130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0678
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

    Areas affected...parts of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071905Z - 072130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
    conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
    being added to the 20Z convective outlook.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
    Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
    70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
    inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
    into the upper 80s to near 90 F.=20

    Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
    from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
    thicker but eroding cloud deck.=20

    Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
    small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
    deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
    conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
    well, with left movers also producing hail.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Mp46R-pUqmpNBwnGku1_DP1OxejpkQyczxpfEacOlmsmN0x7kxt_oUH-1KEoGoFVzFrPkVbf= TgRxyGssdoA2fRCC5g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30309952 30809874 31109823 31239787 31289741 30949691
    30409700 29559766 29179831 29059965 29230010 29570021
    29889996 30309952=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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