ACUS01 KWNS 030124
SWODY1
SPC AC 030124

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to isolated severe storms will continue this
evening, primarily from western North Texas into the Concho
Valley/central Texas area.

...Parts of northern and central Texas...
While isolated strong storms -- a few possibly/occasionally reaching
severe levels -- remain possible from Oklahoma northeastward to the
southern Upper Great Lakes region in the vicinity of the cold
frontal zone, the greatest severe risk will remain across portions
of northern and central Texas.

A handful of severe/supercell storms are ongoing from western North
Texas south to the Concho Valley, with a warm sector bounded by a
cold front on the northern fringe, and a dryline on the west. While
noted veering of the flow with height exists across this area,
magnitude of the flow remains somewhat limited. Still, given the
strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE near 3500 J/kg), the
CAPE/shear combination will continue to favor organized/supercell
storms over the next few hours. Eventually, some upscale growth of
convection may occur, though an only modest low-level jet expected
to evolve this evening may preclude development of a well-organized
MCS. In the meantime, very large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts remain possible, along with a tornado or two.

..Goss.. 05/03/2024





= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 312024
SWODY1
SPC AC 312022

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High
Plains into southwest Texas.

...ArkLaMiss...
Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive
cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak
shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region.
See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat
which remains across Mississippi.

...Eastern Nebraska...
A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska
with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may
continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast
Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two.

...Southwest into south-central Texas...
The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into
Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is
some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus
the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk
has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better
potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and
Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains
and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable
for storm development.

...Central into the southern High Plains...
The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into
eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional
discussion of the threat in this area.

..Bentley.. 05/31/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to
move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted
over central MS this morning with likely another convectively
augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north,
broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas
and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN
southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains.

...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley...
Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push
southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved
into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery
shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will
become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void
of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It
seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading
edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later
this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms.

Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south
of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly
unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from
south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line
hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be
isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A
weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and
cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther
south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will
support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe
gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small
clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the
overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to
a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 010143
SWODY1
SPC AC 010142

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain
possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest
Texas.

...01z Update...

Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening.
Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the
lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow
several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this
evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across
the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible
for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While
west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the
Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this
short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm
clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk
for large hail and gusty winds.

Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of
southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few
thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF
region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening
with hail being the primary risk.

..Darrow.. 06/01/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 251311
SWODY1
SPC AC 251308

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the
Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana
Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida
Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone
Helene.

...Southeast and southern Appalachians...
Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast
into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from
the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit
available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms
will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE
of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with
favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern
Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending
sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level
lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region.

...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast...
Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from
parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into
Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will
generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms
are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest
storms within this regime.

...Florida Peninsula and Keys...
Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on
the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected
to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night.
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene
details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening
low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but
more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal
instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak
overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands
remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat
could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly
into tonight.

...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana...
While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this
afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into
northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will
remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather
strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two
with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will
reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities.

...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts
of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between
a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving
warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York.
Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with
persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain
rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could
be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization
remains too low to add severe probabilities.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 251643
SWODY1
SPC AC 251643

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the
Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana
Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida
Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone
Helene.

..Southeast and southern Appalachians...
The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture
streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to
widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some
areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable
deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern
Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could
occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands.
Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany
the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy
become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced
effective front sags southward across the region.

...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast...
Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from
parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into
Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will
generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms
are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest
storms within this regime.

...Florida Peninsula and Keys...
Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large,
especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a
strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference
the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This
scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH
across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the
evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle.
Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details
regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain.
However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across
parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight.

...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana...
While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this
afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into
northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a
locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024





= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 241247
SWODY1
SPC AC 241246

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending
from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf
Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an
amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the
result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the
Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through
tonight.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 182135
SWODY1
SPC AC 182134

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana
tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and
occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana
Coast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and
moisture advection are already underway across coastal portions of
TX and LA, as indicated by 19Z mesoanalysis. Current thinking is
that the low-level warm-air/moisture advection will continue to
increase and boost elevated CAPE to 1000 J/kg along the coast with
the approach of a mid-level impulse currently situated over NM.
Elevated thunderstorms should develop later this evening. Mainly
hail is expected given elongated hodographs. However, if any
supercellular structure can materialize along the southeast LA coast
and become rooted in the boundary layer tonight, a damaging gust or
tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 02/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/

...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving
into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by
daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an
arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north
TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the
TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin
will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast
TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across
parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast
soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will
likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity
will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this
evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat.
The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse
rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely
limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can
become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe
gusts may accompany the stronger storms.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)