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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 26 18:04:55 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 261804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261804=20
    IAZ000-261930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

    Areas affected...portions of northern and central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261804Z - 261930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated convection north of the advancing warm front may
    pose a risk for isolated hail through the early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
    developing thunderstorms north of a warm front across pats of
    northern and central IA. Strong low-level warm advection is
    occurring ahead of the front as an upper trough begins to lift
    northeastward out of the central Plains. As broad scale ascent and
    warm advection continue, elevated buoyancy will likely support
    scattered thunderstorms. Steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and
    around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support occasional strong elevated
    updrafts. Wind profiles are expected to continue to strengthen
    during the day supporting a mixed supercell/cluster mode. Large hail
    will be possible with the more robust cores above the cooler surface temperatures. A greater severe risk may develop later this afternoon
    as the surface layer gradually destabilizes. Given the elevated
    nature of the convection limiting coverage of stronger storms a WW
    is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NN1py7MqQHutE05WY9NGbTf-il3P_jAS8kklBfaKRDegpmlKuzErrvx4NfzCiguXQWryCZof= rC0k7fftv_lT9_rh1A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41649426 41919535 42169565 42479576 42839600 43219611
    43399605 43479553 43459452 43279410 43059383 42749365
    42449351 42099338 41739342 41499354 41429386 41649426=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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