ACUS11 KWNS 261721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261721=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-261815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Nebraska ...northeast
Kansas into southwestern Iowa.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 261721Z - 261815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storm development appears likely on the dryline
within central and eastern Nebraska early this afternoon. Supercells
with large to very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A Tornado
Watch is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...Rapid destabilization is ongoing within the dry slot
ahead of an upper trough moving into the central Plains. Visible
imagery shows towering cumulus deepening along the bent back dryline
from near Kearney, NE to the KS border. A pocket of low to mid 60s F
surface dewpoints has remained sheltered from deeper vertical mixing
due to lingering clouds near the surface low. As cloud breaks
enlarge with the advection of dry mid-level air, insolation will
support the removal of remaining MLCINH through the early afternoon.
Area model sounding show 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with strongly
veering wind profiles and 40-45 kt of effective shear. As
large-scale ascent moves over early this afternoon, scattered
supercell development is expected along the dryline.=20

Hi-res guidance and observational trends are in good agreement that
an arc of storms could develop as early as 18-19z and spread
northeastward into east eastern NE and eventually western IA. With
backed low-level flow near the low/warm front and strongly veering
wind profiles overlapping with large low-level buoyancy, supercells
appear likely to pose a risk for tornadoes (possibly significant) in
addition to large to very large hail. The southern and eastern
extent of the threat remains somewhat uncertain as cloud debris and
outflow from the morning convection are still in place. Still,
gradual destabilization is likely this afternoon as ascent and
clearing arrive from the west. A tornado watch will likely be needed
early this afternoon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tJubmVCPoK1YoSxXuJiw8O7RSeQETyUc4HSIL_E9pQMZT3fmIz4E4rfJk9yt--EvFr68cPF6= V9rCvfysQQ33nQB8AY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42649674 42299596 41909541 41399524 40729519 40129527
39949546 39889575 39859598 39829630 39859679 39889720
39979749 40089770 40329792 40639812 40869834 40979860
41019894 41179902 41629913 42149910 42239906 42579833
42739771 42749712 42649674=20


=3D =3D =3D
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