ACUS11 KWNS 160429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160429=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-160630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and central Kansas and adjacent
south central Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 160429Z - 160630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes appears probable with an intensifying line of
thunderstorms across western into central Kansas and adjacent south
central Nebraska through 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A strong cyclonic upper jet streak continues to nose
across the southern Rockies through the south central high plains,
with latest Rapid Refresh suggesting speeds now in the process of strengthening in excess of 80 to 90+ kt across the Texas Panhandle
through northwestern Oklahoma. Strongest mid-level cooling in the
exit region of this feature (including 500 mb temperatures
decreasing to -20 to -22c) is forecast to overspread the stalling
dryline across western Kansas through 05-07Z, contributing to
weakening of lingering mid-level inhibition, further destabilization
and more rapid thunderstorm intensification.

Persistence of the ongoing isolated supercell now approaching the
Hayes/Russell vicinity, within the narrow corridor of moderate
potential instability ahead of the dryline, remains unclear, but
further intensification of the linear structure along the dryline
and merging cold fronts now west of Hill City into areas east of
Garden City seems probable. Several low-level cyclonic meso
circulations have already been noted in the presence of enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath a 50-60 kt southerly
850 mb jet. With further weakening of inhibition and release of
CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, rapid thunderstorm intensification may
be accompanied by an increasing risk for tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts within the next few hours.

..Kerr.. 04/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8iD0sBZ1vhLJ6YIU3C0yosovjwtBmVshjNsHxBkdeGkHeWvovsb90yS4Rf6ZDCfiYOQgH3TdB= HEKMxYLO0_lOHtoWaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38790023 40399968 40359814 38919841 37509910 37190019
37730048 38790023=20


=3D =3D =3D
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