ACUS11 KWNS 130036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130036=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oregon into north central
Idaha

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130036Z - 130230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may continue to evolve
and organize near and east-northeast of the Baker OR vicinity, with
increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while
spreading toward the Bitterroot and Salmon River Mountains vicinity
through 7-9 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently intensified in a
narrow line near/south of the Blue Mountains vicinity of
northeastern Oregon. This appears aided by a focused area of
large-scale ascent supported by low-level warm advection, beneath a
difluent and divergent upper flow regime. As a high-level jet
streak continues to propagate eastward to the north of the western Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, this forcing is forecast to generally
shift east-northeastward into parts of the Salmon River Mountains
and Bitterroot Range of north central Idaho.

Although peak late afternoon instability appears characterized by
relatively modest CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, strong deep layer
shear (50+ kt) may contribute further intensification of convection
during the next few hours. The evolution of a small, but
increasingly organized cluster of storms appears possible, which may
gradually be accompanied by strengthening rear inflow and perhaps
increasing potential for strong to severe gusts to reach the
surface, aided by relatively dry sub-cloud air with modestly steep
lapse rates.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Yu9LF3rUihAk0Oob3M_fC3TR3bYGm1sW52bx0xNvF3v76xdAcf6XJhCWWN6vxAEyepcBMm8y= lS8YhduC74bdj_PBYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...PDT...

LAT...LON 44841815 46031625 46041454 45081549 44021738 43971789
44521796 44841815=20


=3D =3D =3D
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