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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0402

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 9 23:40:47 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 092340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092340=20
    TXZ000-100115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0402
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0640 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of central TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

    Valid 092340Z - 100115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail potential will continue
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing early this
    evening across central TX, with recent reports of 2+ inch hail
    across the north side of Austin. These cells are ongoing north of a
    nearly stationary surface boundary, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg
    and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to provide a favorable
    supercell environment through much of the evening, with a threat of
    very large hail (potentially in the 1.75 - 2.5 inch diameter range)
    and localized severe gusts. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out
    with any sustained supercell near the surface boundary.=20

    While storms should generally move eastward north of the boundary
    through early evening, more isolated development will be possible
    near the intersection of the front and a weak surface
    trough/effective dryline extending into portions of south-central
    TX, where stronger heating/mixing occurred this afternoon. Later
    this evening, the western portion of the front may begin
    accelerating southward with increasing storm coverage, though timing
    of any such development remains uncertain.

    ..Dean.. 04/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bFBd9jZcqZHzK3fsMwg3QHTFtO3G4XX-7A6Y2Hwjofk1_gTj-G1HqdEzTqtwKqXBG1_aPrQz= qBoo-aE7x1tZ7Mysc8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30809943 31099880 31349794 31369754 31339719 31079695
    30809687 30219689 29909716 29699742 29659766 29619800
    29619832 29799912 29899932 30039947 30209949 30809943=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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