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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 9 04:49:42 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 090449
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090449=20
    TXZ000-090615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0391
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

    Valid 090449Z - 090615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail (golfball to baseball size) remains
    possible with an ongoing supercell cluster. A brief tornado cannot
    be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing at 0445 UTC to the
    west-northwest of the Metroplex, with multiple cells having produced
    golfball or larger sized hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) within
    the last hour. While some cell interactions/mergers have been noted
    with the northernmost cells, the two right-moving supercells ongoing
    west of Mineral Wells and north of Fort Worth may be able to move east-northeastward with minimal interference in the short term.=20

    MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-55 kt will
    continue to support supercell potential into the early overnight
    hours, with very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter with
    the strongest cells) as the primary threat, along with some risk for
    localized severe gusts. Also, low-level flow has substantially
    increased over the last 1-2 hours on the KFWS VWP, with 0-1 km SRH
    increasing above 150 m2/s2. This could support a brief tornado
    threat with the strongest right-moving cells, though relatively cool near-surface conditions may mitigate this threat to some extent.

    ..Dean.. 04/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2AT7wkPvBsmJ4oChTC2FHHYXHmfba4ZNzk-2Cy-RLaHpv-0GpKTwjYH89AQEV2w6YlrobrT6= aDSzOWjfZK0YhN8_oI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33359899 33639814 33679694 33399637 33109626 32919638
    32709657 32609701 32549747 32529802 32539848 32579908
    32679931 32979941 33099945 33359899=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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