ACUS11 KWNS 022038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022038=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of WV into western VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022038Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado, isolated large hail, and damaging winds appear
possible with a supercell in West Virginia as it moves eastward. The
need for a watch remains unclear, as the overall severe threat will
likely remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...From a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, a supercell has recently strengthened across WV. The thermodynamic environment across this area remains marginal to
support robust convection, as earlier thunderstorms and persistent
cloudiness have hindered destabilization to some extent. Still,
modest airmass recovery has occurred this afternoon, with latest
mesoanalysis estimates showing up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE present along/downstream of the ongoing supercell. In addition, recent VWPs
from KRLX show generally veered, southwesterly low-level flow that
quickly strengthens with height through mid levels. Even with these
potentially limiting factors, it appears that a TDS has occurred
with a recent low-level circulation. In the short term, a tornado
will remain possible, along with large hail and damaging winds.
Given the isolated severe threat with just one supercell ongoing,
the need for a watch downstream remains unclear. Regardless, trends
will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WMPMnOD9pXdcpZASjUpPr_vHHsBHsAobL2aG6Nztlf3-l5OJyAj0nmo7V5OrWx6igp14HgtO= 1YqmsI4SnrSg5GIVFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38468109 38518008 38317870 37607886 37447927 37538015
37838106 38098130 38468109=20


=3D =3D =3D
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