ACUS11 KWNS 272022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272022=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Areas affected...northern FLORIDA Peninsula...southeastern
Georgia...eastern South Carolina...far southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272022Z - 272215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon with
potential for instances of severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has begun in eastern Georgia
near a surface boundary that extends from the Carolinas southward
into the eastern Florida Panhandle. CAMs continue to suggest this=20 thunderstorm activity will increase into the afternoon, with
scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the region.
Afternoon heating has been slow, given mid-to upper level cloud
cover and slow eroding of stable air behind morning convection.
Surface objective analysis indicates MLCIN has weakened with around
500 J/kg MLCAPE across South Carolina into Georgia ahead of the
boundary. This trend is further confirmed by thunderstorm
development on radar.

Currently, deep layer shear is strongest across the northern Florida
Peninsula into southern Georgia. As the front shifts eastward this
afternoon, stronger mid-level flow will spread northward, with deep
layer shear increasing to the north as a result. This will support
potential for a few more robust thunderstorms with potential for
damaging winds and large hail. Given the slow air mass recovery and
potential for messy storm mode with multi-cell clusters, a watch is
unlikely to be needed this afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gktayPA0IeFh8FgsQ6KJDxHoQr6Y0HJC2yWQ7KRGSr_tR2iZ9ebaABZkf3vJQ1Bm9XJ2dyPu= AgR30phLg5ItMRA7mE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31138337 32258262 32988215 34258099 35118004 35207994
35057892 34787854 34447836 34237827 34057827 33567853
33117900 32538007 32188051 31928076 31518105 31358147
31158197 30938228 30708268 30408289 30138320 30128368
30278377 31138337=20


=3D =3D =3D
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