ACUS11 KWNS 251944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251944 COR
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-252145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 251944Z - 252145Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated
tornado possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near
the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern
Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and
moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through
the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal
(around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8
C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon.
Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest
low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated
tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail
will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.
..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Vyqbzu62PKG5ZK6sQNW6z8lY5B3iDBVlxNLngNxW0N8RUcTy_PSE4Ld-9ihWNGJKcI7X2-yW= uBXSt8AEheNsTTMK-Q$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40279553 40919595 41439599 41979591 42369563 42829519
42649468 42359435 41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464
40209511 40279553=20
=3D =3D =3D
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